How The Yanks and Sox Got Here

Before the season, I evaluated each of the teams around the majors based on Established Win Shares Levels (see here for a discussion of EWSL and here for the team method). Over the offseason, I’ll be taking a look back at how teams matched up against those established levels, both to explain where things went right or wrong and to fine-tune EWSL’s usefulness (within its natural limitations) as a predictive tool. For now, in advance of their playoff showdown, let’s look at how the Yankees and Red Sox stacked up to their preseason predictions. You’ll note some variance from the preseason numbers I ran because I did the Yankees before the A-Rod trade.
New York Yankees
Adjusted EWSL: 323.3 (108 wins)
Unadjusted EWSL: 310.3 (103 wins)
Weighted Age: 32.721
Actual Record: 101 wins

Pos	Player	EWSL	2004	Age
C	JPosada	25	20	32
1B	JGiambi	32	8	33
2B	MCairo	3	13	30
SS	DJeter	22	26	30
3B	ARodriguez	34	30	28
RF	GSheffield	31	31	35
CF	KLofton	18	7	37
LF	HMatsui*	19	29	30
DH	BWilliams	21	16	35
C2	JFlaherty	5	3	36
INF	EWilson	2	5	30
OF	RSierra	6	9	38
13	TClark	5	8	32
SP1	MMussina	18	10	35
SP2	JVazquez	18	10	27
SP3	KBrown	12	9	39
SP4	JContreras*	7	2	32
SP5	JLieber	4	11	34
CL	MRivera	15	16	34
R2	PQuantrill	10	6	35
R3	GWhite	5	-1	32
R4	TGordon	8	15	36
R5	FHeredia	6	0	29

Not a lot of things you didn’t already know here: the Yankees actually underachieved this year, due to major fall-offs from Giambi, Mussina, Vazquez, and Kenny Lofton, while the main guys who stepped way up to pick up some of the slack were Matsui, Cairo, Gordon and Lieber. There’s also the guys I hadn’t listed in the preseason:

Pos	Player	EWSL	2004	Age
SP	OHernandez	4	9	38
1B	JOlerud	20	6	35
P	TSturtze	5	3	33

Five guys also contributed one Win Share each. You will note that Olerud’s 6 Win Shares, like Contreras’ total, is only for his time with the Yankees. . . and yes, I know 38 is an approximate age for El Duque, but I have to use something.
Boston Red Sox
Adjusted EWSL: 307.3 (102 wins)
Unadjusted EWSL: 307.3 (102 wins)
Weighted Age: 31.735
Actual record: 98 wins

Pos	Player	EWSL	2004	Age
C	JVaritek	14	18	32
1B	KMillar	16	17	32
2B	PReese	7	3	31
SS	NGarciaparra	22	6	30
3B	BMueller	17	12	33
RF	TNixon	19	4	30
CF	JDamon	19	26	30
LF	MRamirez	28	28	32
DH	DOrtiz	12	25	28
C2	DMirabelli	4	7	33
INF	MBellhorn	9	21	29
OF	GKapler	7	5	28
13	EBurks	12	0	39
SP1	PMartinez	19	16	32
SP2	CSchilling	20	22	37
SP3	DLowe	15	6	31
SP4	TWakefield	13	8	37
SP5	BKim	16	0	25
CL	KFoulke	17	15	31
R2	SWilliamson	7	4	28
R3	MTimlin	8	6	38
R4	AEmbree	5	4	34
R5	RMendoza	4	3	32

A real tribute to the Sox here for surviving the big dropoffs from the contributions of Nomar (even before he was traded), Nixon, Lowe and Kim. Ellis Burks, of course, never did get a role on the team, so his inclusion here is more a feature of February. The two guys who picked up the most slack were Ortiz (who had 15 win shares in 2003) and Bellhorn; the Sox went far this year by ignoring Bellhorn’s 177 whiffs and cashing in on his cheap (less than $500,000 this year) production. But the team’s additions, including one guy I totally overlooked in February (Bronson Arroyo) made a difference:

Pos	Player	EWSL	2004	Age
SP	BArroyo	2	10	27
3B	KYoukilis	0	8	25
SS	OCabrera	19	5	29
RP	CLeskanic	6	3	36
1B	DMcCarty	1	3	34

Plus, Dave Roberts and Brian Daubach with two Win Shares apiece, and six other guys with one Win Share apiece, including the disappointing Doug Mentkiewicz (19 EWSL entering the season). Cabrera, clearly, was a useful pickup, and the Greek God of Walks, with his .367 on base percentage, gave the Sox some valuable fill-in work.

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