The Daily News claims that the Mets have offered Pedro Martinez a three-year deal worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $37-39 million (about $12-13 million per year), and are contemplating a fourth year guaranteed. While I’m not a fan of the overall strategy of committing more money to expensive stars in their thirties, Pedro is at least a sufficiently high-quality starter – a rare enough thing these days – that it would not be a terrible move, although adding a fourth year guaranteed, with Pedro’s health and durability concerns, would be a Very Bad Idea. That fourth year is only worth it if you are – unlike the Mets – willing to risk writing off an extra season of salary to get over the top in the short run.
Anyway, amidst all the gnashing of teeth about Pedro’s decline, a little perspective is in order:
| W | L | ERA | G | GS | CG | IP | H | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 10 | 3.70 | 33 | 33 | 4 | 216.2 | 189 | 19 | 70 | 222 |
| 19 | 7 | 2.89 | 33 | 33 | 2 | 233.2 | 188 | 26 | 67 | 251 |
| 16 | 9 | 3.90 | 33 | 33 | 1 | 217 | 193 | 26 | 61 | 227 |
That’s Pedro in 1996, 1998, and 2004; as you can see, Pedro’s performance this season wasn’t greatly out of line with seasons he had in his mid-20s. Yes, we’ll never see the Pedro of 1999-2000 again (in our lifetimes, we may never see any pitcher that dominating again), and yes, he’s lost some gas off his fastball, but the numbers say there’s still plenty of gas in Pedro’s tank if he can stay healthy.