Well, looks like JP Ricciardi is even more bullish on BJ Ryan than I was, giving him a 5-year, $47 million contract to come to Toronto, the largest ever for a relief pitcher. Ken Rosenthal thinks the deal is nuts, and as enthused as I am about Ryan, I’m half inclined to agree with him – that’s a lot of money for any closer, especially for a team that’s a long way from filling all its other roster holes, and that much money is a lot of pressure on Ryan. I can’t blame the Mets for not matching a deal that big, even if it does pan out well. Of course, I assume Wagner will use this contract to squeeze more money out of the Mets, Phillies and other bidders.
3 thoughts on “The Ryan Contract”
Comments are closed.
How rare is a really good closer?
I’ve witnessed many teams struggle to find that special kind of pitcher that can go out night after night and slam the door. But I’ve never dug through the historical stats to see if my sense (that it’s really hard to find a good, let alone great, closer) is demonstrated by historical record.
I have to agree with Ken that this deal seems crazy.
My prediction is the Ryan blows up mid-season.
Even if Ryan is great, most closer put up “great” numbers. And the jays are unlikely to reach the post-season.
So, to just make up numbers (these are *not* predictions), is 2-3 with 50 Svs/53 chances and 1.50 ERA, 0.85 WHIP worth millions of dollars more than 1-4; 45/53; 2.50, 1.10 WHIP? Over 60 IP or so? Seems like something on the magnitude of $1M a year at most. Maybe more if the team’s a contender and the relievers have Armando vs. Mariano reps.
This is crazy otherwise.
From the Mets perspective, the problem is that it may push Minaya into goiing to a fifth year for Wagner, which is really indefensible at his age. I think I’d probably rather sign Trevor Hoffman to something short-term, if that’s a viable option.