David Pinto notes the Orioles’ acquisition of Corey Patterson in exchange for two minor leaguers. I realize that a lot of sabermetrically-inclined folks, Pinto included, are very down on Patterson due to his appalling lack of strike zone judgment, but I’m not convinced that it’s too late for Patterson to turn himself around, a la Sammy Sosa and Mike Cameron, players with similar skill sets and similiar (if less severe) strike zone problems.
Consider: Patterson will still be only 26 in 2006, and his list of comparable players is impressive; even after a rotten 2005 that dropped Reggie Smith, Andre Dawson and Dave Winfield off his list, he still compares rather closely to Sosa, Chili Davis, Dwight Evans, Paul Blair, Jimmy Wynn, Rick Monday, Augie Galan and George Hendrick – a list that includes a who’s who of late bloomers – and the aggregate rest-of-career average for his comps from 26 on is .271/.460/.362 with 192 home runs. Patterson was quite useless in 2005, but I consider him a decent bet to be surprisingly productive in 2006, and to have a decent career, if only because the things he needs are things that can be learned. It’s not a guarantee; his most-similar comp, Ruppert Jones, never did really put it all together, and of course Orioles fans will rememeber well the forever unfulfilled promise of Jeffrey Hammonds. But I’d put my money on Baltimore winning this deal.