David Pinto points out that Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections (subscribers only) are out for 2006. A few quick notes:
1. I notice that, by BP’s reckoning, the fourth-most similar player to Coco Crisp at the same age is . . . Johnny Damon.
2. BP’s 5-year projections for Ichiro are grim, showing him never again batting as high as .310 and being out of baseball after four more years. I assume his late-starting career makes Ichiro hard to project, career-wise.
3. Maybe it’s just inherent conservatism for low-minors rookies (although it’s not manifested in the projections for Andy Marte), but PECOTA is just brutal on Lastings Milledge, essentially projecting him as a below-league-average hitter for the next four seasons. Even if you think Milledge isn’t ready yet – he presumably isn’t – that seems like a long time to wait, at the end of which the projected payoff is a 25-year-old batting .285/.488/.347. Most likely PECOTA just isn’t equipped to make long-range projections of prospects; if not, Mets fans are getting all excited about a guy who has years to go to pull even with Mike Cameron, and behind Cliff Floyd, with the bat.
2 thoughts on “PECOTA 2006”
Comments are closed.
Much of Milledges success will be determined by his ability to control the strike zone, which at his age is still questionable. I am hopin but….
Milledge doesn’t currently walk a lot, but he doesn’t walk ridiculously little, and he also doesn’t strike out much. I think his numbers in that regard a pretty encouraging, although this season is likely critical to whether he’s going to be a fast-track star, or a guy who will take three or four years to find himself in the big leagues.