2006 EWSL All-Stars

Continuing my pre-season romp through Established Win Shares Levels (explained here), using the new age adjustments set out here, I’ve assembled the top 15 players in baseball entering 2006 as ranked by age-adjusted EWSL, as well as by raw (non-adjusted) EWSL. First, the age-adjusted top 15, plus the tops at each position not represented in the top 15 (EWSL totals are rounded off).

# PLAYER Age Pos Team EWSL
1 Albert Pujols 26 1B Cardinals 43
2 Miguel Cabrera 23 1B Marlins 32
3 Alex Rodriguez 30 3B Yankees 31
4 Mark Teixera 26 1B Rangers 31
5 Adam Dunn 26 1B Reds 29
6 Manny Ramirez 34 LF Red Sox 28
7 David Wright 23 3B Mets 27
8 Derrek Lee 30 1B Cubs 27
9 Rafael Furcal 28 SS Dodgers 27
10 Miguel Tejada 30 SS Orioles 26
11 Bobby Abreu 32 RF Phillies 26
12 Carl Crawford 24 LF Devil Rays 26
13 Vladimir Guerrero 30 RF Angels 25
14 Todd Helton 32 1B Rockies 25
15 David Ortiz 30 DH Red Sox 25
– Joe Mauer 23 C Twins 22
– Marcus Giles 28 2B Braves 24
– Carlos Zambrano 25 SP Cubs 23
– Johan Santana 27 SP Twins 22
– Roger Clemens 43 SP Himself 20
– Roy Oswalt 28 SP Astros 20
– Dontrelle Willis 24 SP Marlins 19
– Francisco Rodriguez 24 RP Angels 15

In short, these are likely the best players in baseball as we enter 2006; with the injuries and age of Barry Bonds, I feel quite comfortable with the EWSL ranking of Pujols as baseball’s best by a comfortable margin, although the age adjustment may overstate just a bit how far he stands ahead of the pack. I’m a little more skeptical of the ratings of Furcal and Crawford, but Furcal is obviously rated on his glove and Crawford is a solid established player just entering his prime years and likely to develop more patience and ability to drive the ball (he finished 2005 with a blazing September). Wright and Mauer are ranked only on 2004-05, so their ranking is a little inflated here in terms of what he has actually proven (the raw rankings are all three-year rankings). Note that the only team with two players in the top 15 is the Red Sox with Manny and Ortiz.
Now, the same list, except ranked by raw EWSL – in other words, the guys with the most real accomplishments entering the season, regardless of age. I went out to 16 here to avoid dropping a player solely on a rounding difference:

# PLAYER Age Pos Team EWSL
1 Pujols 26 1B Cardinals 37
2 A. Rodriguez 30 3B Yankees 32
3 Gary Sheffield 37 RF Yankees 32
4 Ramirez 34 LF Red Sox 31
5 Abreu 32 RF Phillies 30
6 Helton 32 1B Rockies 29
7 Brian Giles 35 RF Padres 29
8 Jim Edmonds 36 CF Cardinals 28
9 D.Lee 30 1B Cubs 28
10 Tejada 30 SS Orioles 27
11 Texiera 26 1B Rangers 27
12 Michael Young 29 SS Rangers 26
13 Guerrero 30 RF Angels 26
14 Ortiz 30 DH Red Sox 26
15 Carlos Delgado 34 1B Mets 26
16 Carlos Beltran 29 CF Mets 26
– Jorge Posada 34 C Yankees 21
– Jeff Kent 38 2B Dodgers 25
– Santana 27 SP Twins 23
– Clemens 43 SP Himself 21
– Mark Buehrle 27 SP White Sox 20
– C. Zambrano 25 SP Cubs 18
– Oswalt 28 SP Astros 18
– Mariano Rivera 36 RP Yankees 18

No surprises here, especially not the fact that when you remove age from the picture you get a lot more guys on a handful of the same teams, and more Yankees in particular.

7 thoughts on “2006 EWSL All-Stars”

  1. In some ways, Pujols is reminiscent of Lou Gehrig. A first baseman performing at an unheard of pace; with the exception of a side fielder doing even better.
    The idea that someone can even be projected to produce a 40 win share season is extraordinary. Of course, we know Pujols is, but let’s sit back and enjoy the talent. Hopefully, the NATURAL talent.
    Albert, you are something else; I’m glad the rest of the country saw that insane homer in the playoffs.

  2. Maybe I’m just letting fanhood cloud my judgment, but shouldn’t Andruw at least be on the list somewhere? I know last year was above his career average hitting and RBI, but the defense is still there, and you had him rated at 24 headed into last year.

  3. How come no CF in the top rankings? I thought every position not in the Top 15 would be covered?

  4. I love that you listed Clemens’ team as “Himself”. I’d say that will be true regardless of where he goes.

  6. Crank, I read the explanation of EWSL from your link. As always I am amazed at the stuff you compile here, but do I understand correctly that these rating do not consider fielding at all?

  7. OK, sorry. Rereading I see it says it does take fielding into account – it justisn’t demonstrated how that happens in the example formula.
    So I take it that fielding enters at some point. I’ll read the whole thing to see if I can get a better understanding of it.
    Oh, I’ll say it again, if Clemens plays this year he’ll play for the Astros.

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