Yes, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections are out, for all you subscribers. Just a sampling:
*PECOTA luuuuuuuves Lastings Milledge. His best-case (90th percentile), neutral-park projection for 2007? 320/.396/.551 (I’ll list these as BP does, Avg/Obp/Slg). His weighted mean projection? .289/.359/.476. In the major leagues, that is.
*Mike Pelfrey? Mean projection of 4.37 ERA, 6.5 K/9, 3.5 BB/9.
*Felix Hernandez? 3.62 ERA, 7.5 K/9.
*Delmon Young? .293/.336/.474.
*Melky Cabrera? More power, less OBP: .279/.344/.413.
*Joe Mauer? .322/.409/.501.
*Barry Bonds? .265/.437/.541 but only enough playing time to manage 12 home runs.
Plenty more where those came from.
2 thoughts on “PECOTA Grab Bag”
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What about Alex Gordon?
The problem with the various projections is in evaluating which ones are most accurate. You will get examples of players they were really close on from proponents. And you will get examples of bad misses from critics. Neither really tells you anything. A blind squirrel rule comes into play. What would be helpful would be knowing which projection (PECOTA or whatever) had the lowest average deviation from actual performance.