2007 AL East EWSL Report

The AL East is yet again the first stop in my annual division-by-division roundups, powered by Established Win Shares Levels (EWSL is explained here, and you should read that link before commenting on the method; 2007 revisions to the age adjustment discussed here and rookie adjustments here). Bear in mind as always that (1) EWSL is a record of past performance, adjusted by age to give an assessment of the available talent on hand; it is not an individualized projection system; (2) individual EWSL are rounded off but team totals are compiled from the unrounded figures; and (3) as demonstrated here and here in some detail, nearly all teams will win more games than their EWSL total because I’m only rating 23 players per team (I’m not convinced going to 24 or 25 would make the system more useful, since it would tend to overrate teams that stuff their back bench slots with aging ex-regulars). As always, the depth charts here are drawn from a number of sources and modified to list the guys who will do the work (e.g., if there are two guys battling for a fifth starter spot I’ll often list one of them with the relievers if I think they’ll both end up pitching), but I take responsibility for any errors. It’s still a fluid time for rosters.
The Hated Yankees
Raw EWSL: 279 (93 W)
Adjusted: 295 (98 W)
Age-Adj.: 270 (90 W)
Subjective Adj: 256 (85 W)

There is, sadly, a difference between doing baseball statistical studies professionally and doing them in your spare time, and one of them is that when you discover a methodological problem that should send you back to the drawing board, it’s too late to change. EWSL more than doubles the Win Shares for a 22-year-old non-pitcher, based upon my experience with 15 such players over the past three seasons. Unfortunately, most of those 15 were guys who were working their way up to a full season of playing time; when the age adjustment is applied to a guy who played regularly for one season at age 21, it has a serious risk of over-projecting improvement. We will see this especially graphically when we get to the NL East.
Here, EWSL values Melky Cabrera as the best player in the AL East. Urk. It’s true that Melky’s ability to post a .360 OBP, have a nearly 1-to-1 BB/K ratio, and crack 26 doubles in 524 plate appearances at age 21 are all suggestive of a high-quality player who should take impressive strides forward this season. But there is simply very little chance that he will play regularly this year, let alone play a lot more than he did in 2006, and so for the first time (other than a 50% haircut I applied in 2005 to the injured Barry Bonds) I’m applying the Band-Aid solution of using subjective adjustments where appropriate to bring particular teams into line with what should be their reasonable expectations (you can still see and compare the purely objective ratings if you prefer them – I’ll flag the players being adjusted with italics). Here, what I’m doing is shaving Melky down to 15 EWSL – still high for a bench player, but he’s backing up three or four 33-year-olds (depending whether you think Giambi can slot in at first in a pinch) and a 36-year-old, so he should still get close to 400 PA. (Josh Phelps and Todd Pratt should take the remaining roster spots).
As for the team as a whole, the Hated Yankees’ status as favorites may seem as fixed as one of Newton’s Laws, but eventually we will find out whether they need to take some lumps like mortals when they can no longer rely on Jeter, Rivera and Posada as their anchors; we’ll be asking those questions soon about the latter two. This is an old team – it’s been an old team for years and has been shedding the oldest guys only gradually, and (as in the case of Gary Sheffield) replacing them with players who are likewise past 32. We saw last season what risks that carries even when you invest in players with previously bulletproof health records.
That is this team’s only major weakness, though there are a number of smaller ones – Pavano’s health, some questions about the bullpen and the bench beyond Melky, Minky’s bat (although he’ll be useful if he’s platooned and hits like he did in 2006) – and there are young pitchers on the way, led by super-prospect Philip Hughes. Even with Cano sliding back a bit in his batting average and Jeter likely to return to his usual self, this team will score loads of runs and should have adequate starting pitching to take the AL East.
Boston Red Sox
Raw EWSL: 245 (82 W)
Adjusted: 263 (88 W)
Age-Adj.: 235 (78 W)
Subjective Adj: 240 (80 W)

I’ve adjusted Matsuzaka, as a very high-quality foreign entry, up to 10 EWSL from the usual 5 for rookie starting pitchers. Valuing Matsuzaka at 10 and Kei Igawa at 5 may still be conservative, but you can rarely go wrong being conservative with rookie starting pitchers, whatever their pedigree, and especially in the American League.
The BoSox have two things going for them as against the Yankees. On the one hand, they have more upside from their established performance levels – any of their front four starters could be outstanding, with their ace, Schilling, perhaps having the lowest odds of a big leap forward (a lot has happened to him since 2004). JD Drew could always be healthy and rip off a “Lynn in 79” season. Piniero could turn his value around, freed of the workload of a starting pitcher. Crisp could have a huge year at age 27 after last season’s regression.
On the other hand, the Sox have more depth, at least in the lineup, to withstand injury; Cora, Hinske and Pena give them more credible alternatives than the Yankees, who can only play Melky at one position at a time. Bullpen options besides those shown here include Craig Hansen and JC Romero (I still wouldn’t bet against Hansen ending up the closer by mid-season; Piniero hasn’t impressed this spring). Backups in the rotation are more questionable, as one wouldn’t want to bank on Matt Clement or Jon Lester being ready to go any time in 2007, and that leaves us last year’s collection of failed emergency options.
Overall, though, the Sawx are most likely competing for the Wild Card. The rotation could unravel due to health issues; Father Time could finally make some inroads on Manny at age 35, immaturity not being a defense to aging. Even if neither of those things happens, they don’t have the guns to run with the Yankees unless the Yankees really get the aging bug badly or the Sox’ rotation steps up in a big way.
Toronto Blue Jays
Raw EWSL: 217 (72 W)
Adjusted: 225 (75 W)
Age-Adj.: 209 (70 W)

I don’t recall if Bill James ever formally listed the signs of a bad organization, but you would think that employing Royce Clayton as an everyday player (at age 37!) would qualify. JP Ricciardi is a smart guy, but if there’s a method to that particular madness it eludes me.
Lind was sent down to AAA on Saturday, but I still expect him to play a big role in the outfield, as he’s a serious hitter. Remaining roster slots should go to John McDonald, John Hattig and Jason Smith, or possibly Sal Fasano. Several experienced starting pitchers are on hand as additional options, including Josh Towers, Jon Thomson and Victor Zambrano, plus a bunch of the young arms who got exposure last season. I expect League to contribute more than EWSL suggests, and he could well be preferred over Frasor as a primary setup man.
The Jays, like the Sox, could exceed reasonable expectations if their starting pitching stays healthy and steps forward, but even if that happens and Frank Thomas is healthy, these guys will be hard pressed to match last season’s 87 wins.
Baltimore Orioles
Raw EWSL: 214 (71 W)
Adjusted: 225 (75 W)
Age-Adj.: 204 (68 W)

Nick Markakis, by the way, is precisely the kind of player EWSL’s sharp upward slope for very young regulars is based on – he was in and out of the lineup in the first half last season due to his mediocre performance, but picked up his power stroke in the second half, and anyone who saw him play after the All-Star Break expects significanly better full-season numbers from him in 2007. By contrast, Corey Patterson’s EWSL hasn’t changed a whit from last year, as he is basically topping out.
The Orioles’ lineup is wall-to-wall adequate, but Tejada and perhaps Markakis are the only star-level contributors, and Tejada may yet break Jim Rice’s single-season GIDP record. And the starting rotation, even with Bedard progressing nicely and the talented Loewen not far behind, is basically a burnt offering to Leo Mazzone. The Orioles will perform respectably for a fourth-place team, but have little to recommend them as anything more.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Raw EWSL: 108 (36 W)
Adjusted: 147 (49 W)
Age-Adj.: 159 (53 W)
Subjective Adj: 164 (55 W)

There’s a saying about Brazil that it’s the country of the future and always will be . . . so it seems with Tampa, which has done a fine job scouting talented youngsters (at least non-pitchers) but never seems to yield much in the win column.
This team should not be as terrible as its EWSL profile suggests, even with a subjective adjustment of Ben Zobrist from 2 to 7 EWSL to account for the fact that he has a steady job. The profile of Tampa’s lineup looks a lot like last year’s Marlins, no track record but a fair amount of talent. Of course, your guess for the Dan Uggla in this picture is as good as mine, and I don’t see a Josh Johnson even if Kazmir plays Dontrelle…basically, the Rays should score a decent number of runs, especially if Upton slots in somewhere as a regular and shakes off 2006’s apathetic performance with the bat, but there are too many question marks, too little patience and power here to make a really to-flight offense even if everything goes right, and too few credible major league pitchers (even trying the control-challenged McClung as a closer is a sign of desperation) to project them at much more than 75 wins as a best-case scenario.
You can compare the prior AL East roundups for 2004 here, 2005 here and 2006 here.