The third of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. EWSL is explained here, and you should read that link before commenting on the method; 2007 revisions to the age adjustment discussed here and rookie adjustments here). Bear in mind as always that (1) EWSL is a record of past performance, adjusted by age to give an assessment of the available talent on hand; it is not an individualized projection system; (2) individual EWSL are rounded off but team totals are compiled from the unrounded figures; and (3) as demonstrated here and here in some detail, nearly all teams will win more games than their EWSL total because I’m only rating 23 players per team. Further disclaimers and explanations are in my AL East preview here; my AL Central preview is here.
The Angels
Raw EWSL: 239 (80 W)
Adjusted: 257 (86 W)
Age-Adj.: 243 (81 W)
| POS | Age | PLAYER | Raw EWSL | Age Adj |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 25 | Mike Napoli* | 5 | 13 |
| 1B | 24 | Casey Kotchman | 2 | 2 |
| 2B | 23 | Howie Kendrick* | 3 | 9 |
| SS | 32 | Orlando Cabrera | 16 | 13 |
| 3B | 29 | Chone Figgins | 19 | 17 |
| RF | 31 | Vladimir Guerrero | 26 | 22 |
| CF | 32 | Gary Matthews | 16 | 14 |
| LF | 35 | Garret Anderson | 15 | 10 |
| DH | 31 | Shea Hillenbrand | 11 | 10 |
| C2 | 32 | Jose Molina | 6 | 5 |
| INF | 30 | Robb Quinlan | 6 | 6 |
| OF | 28 | Juan Rivera | 14 | 15 |
| 13 | 26 | Macier Izturis | 9 | 10 |
| SP1 | 28 | John Lackey | 15 | 16 |
| SP2 | 24 | Jered Weaver* | 7 | 15 |
| SP3 | 24 | Ervin Santana# | 8 | 10 |
| SP4 | 31 | Kelvim Escobar | 10 | 8 |
| SP5 | 34 | Bartolo Colon | 8 | 6 |
| RP1 | 25 | Francisco Rodriguez | 16 | 18 |
| RP2 | 31 | Scot Shields | 12 | 10 |
| RP3 | 33 | Justin Speier | 7 | 5 |
| RP4 | 37 | Hector Carrasco | 7 | 7 |
| RP5 | 26 | Joe Saunders* | 2 | 4 |
Injuries are a huge issue with the Angels right now. Colon is still rehabbing, and Weaver won’t be ready for Opening Day, giving Saunders, at least, room in the rotation, and possibly Dustin Moseley. Figgins could be out several weeks. Dallas McPherson is sidelined for a year.
I could have used a subjective adjustment to bump up Kotchman, but then he has an injury history himself, and EWSL is also rating Rivera and Izturis high based on their prior playing time, and the Angels have a lot of flexibility to slide people between OF, 3B, 1B and DH. If Kotchman can’t establish himself, Kendry Morales will eat his lunch. Also expect Brandon Wood to enter the picture, probably as a result of Cabrera getting dealt.
I’m pretty pessimistic that a 35-year-old Garret Anderson will produce and last in left; the sooner they get Rivera out there, the better. End of the day, the Angels are division favorites on the strength of their starting pitching – if the starters can get healthy, they will be formidible, if not they don’t have the offensive firepower to overcome that loss.
Oakland A’s
Raw EWSL: 232 (77 W)
Adjusted: 238 (79 W)
Age-Adj.: 220 (73 W)
| POS | Age | PLAYER | Raw EWSL | Age Adj |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 33 | Jason Kendall | 20 | 18 |
| 1B | 27 | Dan Johnson# | 6 | 7 |
| 2B | 30 | Mark Ellis | 14 | 13 |
| SS | 27 | Bobby Crosby | 10 | 11 |
| 3B | 29 | Eric Chavez | 18 | 16 |
| RF | 27 | Nick Swisher# | 14 | 15 |
| CF | 29 | Milton Bradley | 13 | 12 |
| LF | 33 | Shannon Stewart | 8 | 7 |
| DH | 38 | Mike Piazza | 12 | 8 |
| C2 | 35 | Adam Melhuse | 2 | 2 |
| INF | 31 | Marco Scutaro | 11 | 9 |
| OF | 30 | Bobby Kielty | 8 | 7 |
| 13 | 31 | Mark Kotsay | 15 | 13 |
| SP1 | 25 | Rich Harden | 8 | 10 |
| SP2 | 26 | Danny Haren | 12 | 12 |
| SP3 | 26 | Joe Blanton# | 9 | 11 |
| SP4 | 35 | Esteban Loaiza | 8 | 5 |
| SP5 | 28 | Joe Kennedy | 7 | 7 |
| RP1 | 23 | Huston Street# | 12 | 15 |
| RP2 | 29 | Justin Duchscherer | 10 | 9 |
| RP3 | 32 | Kiko Calero | 6 | 4 |
| RP4 | 26 | Brad Halsey | 5 | 5 |
| SP5 | 24 | Chad Gaudin | 4 | 4 |
It’s not hard to be optimistic about the A’s when you look in the “age” column – besides Piazza, Kendall and Loaiza, this team’s key guys are as close to the sweet spot as any team since the 2002 Angels. A lot needs to go right for this team to win 90+ games, but when you load your lineup with guys in that age range, good things do happen. Dan Johnson is really in a do-or-die situation at age 27, and ought to pay off for the A’s if he really has gotten his eyes fixed. Bradley is in his walk year. Crosby, who has stagnated with injuries, is more worrisome.
Also on hand: Antonio Perez, Erubiel Durazo, and a handful of pitching prospects (Jason Windsor, Shane Komine, Dan Meyer) who could step up if Joe Kennedy continues to struggle, as he has this spring.
Seattle Mariners
Raw EWSL: 215 (72 W)
Adjusted: 229 (76 W)
Age-Adj.: 213 (71 W)
| POS | Age | PLAYER | Raw EWSL | Age Adj |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 31 | Kenji Johjima* | 10 | 17 |
| 1B | 32 | Richie Sexson | 18 | 15 |
| 2B | 23 | Jose Lopez | 10 | 15 |
| SS | 25 | Yuniesky Betancourt# | 8 | 11 |
| 3B | 28 | Adrian Beltre | 19 | 20 |
| RF | 27 | Jose Guillen | 10 | 8 |
| CF | 33 | Ichiro Suzuki | 24 | 21 |
| LF | 35 | Raul Ibanez | 20 | 14 |
| DH | 32 | Jose Vidro | 11 | 10 |
| C2 | 23 | Rene Rivera* | 2 | 3 |
| INF | 30 | Ben Broussard | 12 | 11 |
| OF | 26 | Jeremy Reed | 4 | 5 |
| 13 | 29 | Willie Bloomquist | 4 | 4 |
| SP1 | 21 | Felix Hernandez* | 7 | 11 |
| SP2 | 32 | Jarrod Washburn | 10 | 7 |
| SP3 | 30 | Jeff Weaver | 8 | 7 |
| SP4 | 27 | Horacio Ramirez | 5 | 5 |
| SP5 | 36 | Miguel Batista | 10 | 8 |
| RP1 | 30 | JJ Putz | 11 | 9 |
| RP2 | 29 | Julio Mateo | 5 | 4 |
| RP3 | 29 | Chris Reitsma | 4 | 3 |
| RP4 | 30 | George Sherrill | 2 | 2 |
| RP5 | 25 | Jake Woods# | 3 | 5 |
Also on hand: Mike Morse, Arthur Rhodes, Jon Huber, Sean Burroughs.
Broussard is presumably first in line if Vidro isn’t up to DH standards, but since Broussard isn’t really a significantly better a hitter than Vidro, that may not matter.
I have very little faith in Seattle’s rotation beyond Hernandez; even if Hernandez makes the Big Leap this season into Johan Santana-land, he will be dragging the rest of these guys behind him. The bullpen is deep, although questions about Putz’s health make it look a lot less so.
A stable lineup and rotation heading into March is usually a sign of a strong team, and sometimes even a leading indicator (I noticed the same thing about Detroit before last season). Seattle did come into the spring with players in relatively well-settled roles, and in some cases, as with the double play combination, that can signify a potential strength beyond the numbers on the page. But even if the Mariners are improved in 2007, they still have too few real offensive strengths and a pitching staff with too many big holes to seriously contend.
Texas Rangers
Raw EWSL: 175 (58 W)
Adjusted: 192 (64 W)
Age-Adj.: 180 (60 W)
Subjective Adj.: 185 (62 W)
| POS | Age | PLAYER | Raw EWSL | Age Adj |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C | 27 | Gerald Laird | 3 | 3 |
| 1B | 27 | Mark Teixera | 26 | 27 |
| 2B | 25 | Ian Kinsler* | 6 | 15 |
| SS | 30 | Michael Young | 27 | 25 |
| 3B | 26 | Hank Blalock | 16 | 18 |
| RF | 26 | Nelson Cruz* | 2 | 3 |
| CF | 40 | Kenny Lofton | 12 | 7 |
| LF | 30 | Brad Wilkerson | 13 | 12 |
| DH | 35 | Frank Catalanotto | 11 | |
| C2 | 32 | Miguel Ojeda | 2 | 2 |
| INF | 22 | Joaquin Arias+ | 1 | 4 |
| OF | 29 | Marlon Byrd | 4 | 3 |
| 13 | 26 | Jason Botts+ | 1 | 4 |
| SP1 | 32 | Kevin Millwood | 12 | 8 |
| SP2 | 29 | Vicente Padilla | 9 | 8 |
| SP3 | 23 | Brandon McCarthy# | 4 | 5 |
| SP4 | 25 | Robinson Tejeda | 4 | 5 |
| SP5 | 25 | Kameron Loe# | 4 | 5 |
| RP1 | 31 | Eric Gagne | 5 | 4 |
| RP2 | 35 | Akinori Otsuka | 10 | 6 |
| RP3 | 27 | Frank Francisco | 1 | 1 |
| RP4 | 26 | CJ Wilson# | 2 | 2 |
| RP5 | 30 | Rick Bauer | 4 | 3 |
I’m bumping Laird up subjectively to 8 WS. You can call me a pessimist for leaving Sammy Sosa off here despite indications that he will start off the season as the everyday DH, but it wouldn’t affect the Rangers’ status as the clear preseason favorite to finish last, given their weak pitching and questionable outfield. This despite still having one of the best infields in baseball, maybe the best given the current status of the Yankees and Cardinals.
I expect Teixeira to bounce back this year and Kinsler to step up; Blalock is a more dauting puzzle, reaching the point where he needs to either go forward or abandon hope of making it as a star.
I assume Gagne will still be Gagne when healthy. If there is an upside on this team, it’s with Gagne, Blalock, Wilkerson, McCarthy, Kinsler, Teixeira, Botts and Tejeda – come to think of it, a pretty long list.
Check out previous AL West previews from 2006, 2005 and 2004.