I probably don’t pay enough attention to trade rumors in general, so excuse me if some of you have discussed this to death already, but Bruce Markusen discusses the revival of the ever-popular deal of prospects, headlined by Lastings Milledge, for Dontrelle Willis. (Joel Sherman of the Post also thinks they may target Willis).
In theory I’m all in favor of a deal like that – Milledge is a serious talent, but guys who are prime quality starting pitchers now are a very rare commodity, and Willis can’t become a free agent until after the 2009 season.
The problem is whether Willis really is an elite pitcher. We’re talking about a guy who had a 4.02 ERA in 2004, 3.87 last season and 4.80 this year. In 292.2 innings since the beginning of 2006, Willis has allowed 311 hits (9.56 per 9 IP), 30 HR (0.92), 113 BB (3.47), and 212 K (6.52). In Florida. Those aren’t terrible numbers by any stretch, but for a 25-year-old in a pitcher’s park, who has a complicated pitching motion and has been worked very hard, that kind of regression, especially in his control, is worrisome.