Not The Year of the Rookie

After last season’s bonanza of quality rookies, some letdown was perhaps to be expected, but I have been surprised at quite how badly so many of this season’s rookies have played. Which is not to say they won’t go on to successful careers, or even turn things around over the final two thirds of the season – but teams handing out a lot of playing time to rookies this season have inherited a lot of grief. Let’s run down the NL rookies first, breaking them out by their level of success – I may not have caught everyone here who has pitched 10 innings and some of them did play last season but I think all these guys are still eligible for the Rookie of the Year award:
Success Stories
Batters

PLAYER Age Pos Team AB AVG SLG OBP Other
Hunter Pence 24 OF HOU 128 .375 .625 .403 5 BB, 21 K
Mark Reynolds 23 3B AZ 65 .385 .708 .446
Josh Hamilton 26 OF CIN 119 .261 .521 .336
Tony Abreu 22 3B LAD 38 .342 .500 .333 0 BB, 4 K
Norris Hopper 28 OF CIN 70 .329 .414 .356 4 SB

The pickings are slim here – only Pence and Hamilton have had anything like a full audition in terms of playing time, Hamilton and Hopper are too old to be prospects (although Hamilton is a unique case). Reynolds does look like a serious prospect, though, and if a non-pitcher is going to win the Rookie of the Year Award, he’s probably as good odds as anyone, and way better odds than anyone but Pence. Not that I mean to slight Pence, who has really been tremendous. Hopper, of course, gets demerits for nearly killing Ryan Freel.
Pitchers

PLAYER Age Pos Team IP ERA BB/IP K/IP Other
Kevin Cameron 27 RP SD 20.1 0.44 6.64 7.97 0 HR, 10 H
Micah Owings 24 SP AZ 46.2 3.86 3.66 6.56 4-1
Joe Smith 23 RP NYM 24.2 1.46 3.28 10.22 27 G
Manuel Corpas 24 RP COL 28.0 2.57 3.21 7.39 28 G, 1 HR
Peter Moylan 28 RP ATL 28.1 2.54 3.18 4.13
Doug Slaten 27 RP AZ 13.2 3.29 3.29 7.90 21 G, 1 HR

Again, we have a collection weighted towards middle relievers already in their primes. Note the presence of two sidearmers (Smith and Moylan). Owings does look like a keeper, and we have not seen top pitching prospects Homer Bailey (soon to make his debut in Cincinnati) and Yovanny Gallardo of Milwaukee. Cameron will need to throw some strikes to be effective long term.
Showing Promise
Batters

PLAYER Age Pos Team AB AVG SLG OBP Other
Chris Young 23 OF AZ 167 .269 .449 .306 6 SB, 8 BB, 28 K
Carlos Ruiz 28 C PHI 137 .270 .401 .324
Fred Lewis 26 OF SF 80 .263 .425 .337
Troy Tulowitzki 22 SS COL 197 .269 .371 .347
Jarrod Saltamacchia 22 C ATL 38 .263 .368 .349
Michael Bourn 24 OF PHI 35 .257 .314 .366
Jesus Flores 25 C WAS 45 .222 .311 .352
Andy LaRoche 23 3B LAD 38 .211 .263 .436 15 BB, 5 K

Young is the stud prospect on this list, and does look like he will be a star if he can master the strike zone, but that’s a work in progress. Ruiz, at 28, is as good as he will get. Tulowitzki’s numbers look good for a 22-year-old shortstop with a cannon arm until you remember that he plays at Coors.
Pitchers

PLAYER Age Pos Team IP ERA BB/IP K/IP Other
Tim Lincecum 23 SP SF 40 4.05 2.70 8.78 2-0, 29 H
Matt Lindstrom 27 RP FLA 24 3.75 3.75 8.63 26 G, 0 HR

Lincecum has had some rough outings but will almost assuredly be on the top chart by the end of the year, and looks like a coming star; he is probably the best bet to take the NL Rookie of the Year when all is said and done.
Struggling or Outright Failing
Batters

PLAYER Age Pos Team AB AVG SLG OBP Other
Scott Thorman 25 1B ATL 155 .219 .400 .256 7 BB, 34 K
Kevin Kouzmanoff 25 3B SD 146 .205 .363 .273
Chris Iannetta 24 C COL 87 .184 .310 .318 15 BB, 29 K
Miguel Montero 23 C AZ 78 .205 .308 .278
Felix Pie 22 OF CHC 59 .237 .390 .250 1 BB, 12 K
Carlos Gomez 21 OF NYM 35 .229 .286 .263 3 SB
Kory Casto 25 OF PIT 54 .130 .167 .158

Like some of the success stories, a number of these guys have had so few at bats that you can’t say much except that they haven’t contributed anything. In Gomez’ case, of course, he wasn’t expected to make the majors and was called up before his time to plug an injury hole. Iannetta, by contrast, has had his struggles cost him playing time in a losing battle with journeyman Yorvit Torrealba. Kouzmanoff has been particularly disapointing given his minor league batting record.
Pitchers

PLAYER Age Pos Team IP ERA BB/IP K/IP Other
Matt Chico 24 SP WAS 59.2 5.13 4.22 4.98 3-4, 9 HR
Mike Pelfrey 23 SP NYM 30.1 6.53 5.04 3.86 0-5, 2 HR
Matt Albers 24 SP HOU 34.0 6.35 3.71 4.50 1-4, 8 HR
Jonah Bayliss 26 RP PIT 30.0 6.60 4.20 7.20 31 G
Jon Coutlangus 26 RP CIN 19,1 5.12 5.12 8.38 26 G
Lavale Speigner 26 RP WAS 28.2 9.10 5.97 4.40 44 H

Well, rookie pitchers will always break your heart. Pelfrey did manage to keep the ball in the park well, but that’s about it.

7 thoughts on “Not The Year of the Rookie”

  1. Good to see an Astro on that list…maybe we can have one good thing come out of this season..ROY…ROY and Roy are about it…El Caballo being a nice addition as well..but what a sad season my Lastros are having…tough to be a fan sometimes…

  2. You forgot Alex Gordon in the Struggling/Failing section. It is hard to understand, he doesn’t look overmatched, but he is not producing.

  5. Carlos Ruiz should learn how to not ground into double plays with the bases loaded and no one out. Maybe if he were as mature a rookie as Chris Coste, he’d have that figured out.

  6. Add Ryan Braun to your showing promise list. 45 AB, 3HR, .311/.347/.578 and showing decent range in the field. He might be getting sent back down due to roster limitations/delaying arbitration, so he wouldn’t have the stats to compete for rookie of the year but he does look like he’s ready to make a big splash.

  7. Kooz certainly got off to a rough start — but if he keeps up the way he’s been playing since about May 10 he’ll finish the season with a batting average around .270-.280. His BA was was in the .108 on May 7 — now it’s .213. His BA for the Month of May was .303. So far in June it’s .286.
    I don’t think he’ll be rookie of the year, but I suspect by season’s end his numbers will be respectable.

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