If you are wondering how the heck the Win Shares formula lists Eric Byrnes as the best player in the National League this season, I’d suggest you look at the fact that the Diamondbacks are playing 10 games ahead of their Pythagorean projections. In other words, when you are handing out credit for 63 wins on a team that’s scored and prevented enough runs to win only 53, you wind up having to hand out a lot of extra credit. Arizona’s offense has been dreadful, 14th in the league in scoring with only Byrnes and Orlando Hudson with anything like good numbers on a full season (Byrnes has also done the little things well – 28 steals in 34 tries, only 3 GIDP). Even with good pitching, they’ve been very, very lucky to surge into first place.
UPDATE: I should note that the AL and major league leader in Win Shares is Ichiro, whose team is likewise 6 games above their Pythagorean record.
2 thoughts on “More Than His Shares”
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I was wondering the same. He’s even -0.3 in “clutch,” so I’ve been scratching my head for a month or two over that one.
But I think your analysis is correct.
It all comes clear to me now – A Rod is no doubt hampered by the fact that the Mighty Yankees are so far behind their Pythagorean projection.