Just for the record, now that the Pennsylvania primary is at last upon us, my prediction: I say it will be Hillary by 8 (RCP’s average has her at 6). She’s getting the late-breaking undecideds, as the more established candidate usually does, but I doubt there are enough of them to push her over the double-digit threshold she really needs to make a major mark.
One thing that goes against the usual conventional wisdom: if turnout is really huge, I expect that to help Hillary, since it probably means that (1) the Rendell machine is going full-out for her and (2) a lot of “Operation Chaos” Republicans have found their way into the primary. (On the other hand, with the primary race on the line, it’s not surprising that Obama is finding ways around his pledge to disdain “walking around money,” which he would in any event need in the fall to compete in PA, NJ, MO, WI and probably MI).
We will know more tomorrow – but I don’t think we’ll really know so much more than we do today.
4 thoughts on “Going On The Record”
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Every time the voters have had the chance to decide this race, they’ve decided not to. I expect that will continue to be the case, with a result of about what you’re predicting.
Don’t get on Obama, or any candidate of any party, who ignores the really stupid “I’ll limit money,” promise. They make great sound bites, but no intelligent candidate, and no republican in decades, ever said no to the money. As republicans have taught: first thing you have to do is win.
That’s particularly true when potentially running against McCain, who’s made more silly self-limiting promises that he will now ignore than typical Republicans do.
Crank’s prediciton is a reasonable one. He’s going to kill her in North C and she cannot catch him. But she posts a solid win in Penn, just not an incredible one.