I’m short on time, so with only minimal comment I’ll present the table comparing the 2008 Established Win Shares Levels to the teams’ actual results, with the caveats noted in last year’s writeup.
| Year | Team | EWSL | 23-Man WS | 23-Man WS-EWSL | 2008 Wins | Total WS | Rest | Total WS-EWSL | EWSL W | Win Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | Rays | 175.50 | 238 | 62.50 | 97 | 291 | 53 | 115.50 | 71 | 26 |
| 2008 | Cubs | 196.25 | 257 | 60.75 | 97 | 291 | 34 | 94.75 | 78 | 19 |
| 2008 | Marlins | 160.64 | 200 | 39.36 | 84 | 252 | 52 | 91.36 | 66 | 18 |
| 2008 | Cardinals | 179.90 | 227 | 47.10 | 86 | 258 | 31 | 78.10 | 72 | 14 |
| 2008 | Rangers | 162.51 | 178 | 15.49 | 79 | 237 | 59 | 74.49 | 66 | 13 |
| 2008 | A’s | 161.69 | 151 | -10.69 | 75 | 225 | 74 | 63.31 | 66 | 9 |
| 2008 | Astros | 198.61 | 232 | 33.39 | 86 | 258 | 26 | 59.39 | 78 | 8 |
| 2008 | White Sox | 207.91 | 233 | 25.09 | 89 | 267 | 34 | 59.09 | 81 | 8 |
| 2008 | Red Sox | 226.03 | 262 | 35.97 | 95 | 285 | 23 | 58.97 | 88 | 7 |
| 2008 | Angels | 247.08 | 266 | 18.92 | 100 | 300 | 34 | 52.92 | 95 | 5 |
| 2008 | Twins | 211.73 | 204 | -7.73 | 88 | 264 | 60 | 52.27 | 83 | 5 |
| 2008 | Phillies | 223.76 | 260 | 36.24 | 92 | 276 | 16 | 52.24 | 87 | 5 |
| 2008 | Giants | 164.47 | 164 | -0.47 | 72 | 216 | 52 | 51.53 | 67 | 5 |
| 2008 | Blue Jays | 207.68 | 214 | 6.32 | 86 | 258 | 44 | 50.32 | 81 | 5 |
| 2008 | Brewers | 224.43 | 229 | 4.57 | 90 | 270 | 41 | 45.57 | 87 | 3 |
| 2008 | Royals | 182.53 | 178 | -4.53 | 75 | 225 | 47 | 42.47 | 73 | 2 |
| 2008 | Orioles | 166.92 | 172 | 5.08 | 68 | 204 | 32 | 37.08 | 68 | 0 |
| 2008 | Dodgers | 220.33 | 186 | -34.33 | 84 | 252 | 66 | 31.67 | 86 | -2 |
| 2008 | Reds | 193.18 | 180 | -13.18 | 74 | 222 | 42 | 28.82 | 77 | -3 |
| 2008 | Pirates | 180.17 | 187 | 6.83 | 67 | 201 | 14 | 20.83 | 72 | -5 |
| 2008 | Mets | 248.56 | 209 | -39.56 | 89 | 267 | 58 | 18.44 | 95 | -6 |
| 2008 | Braves | 204.88 | 176 | -28.88 | 72 | 216 | 40 | 11.12 | 80 | -8 |
| 2008 | D-Backs | 238.71 | 221 | -17.71 | 82 | 246 | 25 | 7.29 | 92 | -10 |
| 2008 | Yankees | 265.51 | 224 | -41.51 | 89 | 267 | 43 | 1.49 | 101 | -12 |
| 2008 | Rockies | 221.36 | 186 | -35.36 | 74 | 222 | 36 | 0.64 | 86 | -12 |
| 2008 | Padres | 192.29 | 158 | -34.29 | 63 | 189 | 31 | -3.29 | 76 | -13 |
| 2008 | Nationals | 186.88 | 120 | -66.88 | 59 | 177 | 57 | -9.88 | 74 | -15 |
| 2008 | Indians | 255.44 | 210 | -45.44 | 81 | 243 | 33 | -12.44 | 97 | -16 |
| 2008 | Mariners | 220.97 | 156 | -64.97 | 61 | 183 | 27 | -37.97 | 86 | -25 |
| 2008 | Tigers | 267.18 | 180 | -87.18 | 74 | 222 | 42 | -45.18 | 101 | -27 |
Notes:
-Somehow, the A’s and Dodgers always seem to end up near the top of the list for most Win Shares earned by guys not on the pre-season 23-man depth chart. Clearly, Beane and Ned Colletti are not guys to sit back and watch ’em play.
-EWSL was markedly less accurate as a predictor in 2008 than in 2007. As I discussed in the age evaluations, the entire sample of MLB players I rated ended up further below their EWSL than in the past. Only nine teams’ preseason 23-man rosters finished within 15 Win Shares (5 wins) of their baseline. That said, of course, EWSL is just a baseline-expectations tool, and by nature it will be frustrated when teams over or underachieve reasonable expectations. It’s unsurprising that the Rays and Tigers were the furthest off the mark.