2010 NL East EWSL Report

Just in time for Opening Day: Part 5 of my preseason previews is the NL East; this is the fifth of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Notes and reference links on the EWSL method are below the fold; while EWSL is a simple enough method that will be familiar to long-time readers, it takes a little introductory explaining, so I’d suggest you check out the explanations first if you’re new to these previews. I’ve also resurrected for this season the team ages, which are weighted by non-age-adjusted EWSL, so the best players count more towards determining the age of the roster.
Prior previews: the AL West, AL East, AL Central, NL West.
Some players are rated based on less than three seasons or given a rookie rating. Key:
+ (Rookie)
* (Based on one season)
# (Based on two seasons)

National League Champion Philadelphia Phillies
Raw EWSL: 285.67 (108 W)
Adjusted: 293.93 (111 W)
Age-Adj.: 248.82 (96 W)
WS Age: 31.17
2010 W-L: 96-66

C 31 Carlos Ruiz 11 9
1B 30 Ryan Howard 25 23
2B 31 Chase Utley 31 26
SS 31 Jimmy Rollins 22 19
3B 34 Placido Polanco 20 17
RF 31 Jayson Werth 21 18
CF 29 Shane Victorino 20 18
LF 38 Raul Ibanez 19 13
C2 33 Brian Schneider 7 6
INF 31 Greg Dobbs 5 4
OF 28 Ben Francisco# 8 10
12 38 Juan Castro 2 1
13 34 Ross Gload 5 4
SP1 33 Roy Halladay 21 14
SP2 26 Cole Hamels 14 15
SP3 29 Joe Blanton 10 9
SP4 27 JA Happ* 15 14
SP5 47 Jamie Moyer 9 6
RP1 33 Brad Lidge 7 5
RP2 29 Ryan Madson 9 7
RP3 32 Chad Durbin 5 4
RP4 38 Jose Contreras 5 4
RP5 34 JC Romero 4 3

Subjective Adjustments: None. As has been the case for a few years now, the Phillies have few players whose value isn’t established. That said, Joe Blanton being out 3-6 weeks and Brad Lidge and JC Romero opening the season on the DL mean that their EWSL may be slightly aggressive.
Also on Hand: Position players – None expected to contribute.
Pitchers – Danys Baez, who should sub early for Lidge and Romero; Antonio Bastardo and Kyle Kendrick.
Analysis: The Phillies, like the Tigers of the 80s, have a core (aside from Hamels) that’s all around the same age, so as I’ve been noting for a few years now their window is limited – but there is a time when you have to take a team with two pennants and a World Championship, ride it as far as it will go and live with the downfall that follows. (Heck, the Yankees are still riding Jeter, Posada and Rivera, who apparently last night became the first trio of teammates in the history of the major pro sports to spend a 16th consecutive season together). For now, the team’s good enough that there’s no point in worrying about the core passing 30.
Aside from the freak abdominal injury, the Halladay for Lee deal remains controversial, but Halladay should benefit from coming to the NL, and he helps balance an overly lefty-heavy rotation. I would not bet against a big bounce-back year for Hamels.
New York Mets
Raw EWSL: 213.67 (84 W)
Adjusted: 230.07 (90 W)
Age-Adj.: 214.40 (85 W)
WS Age: 29.79
2010 W-L: 85-77

C 34 Rod Barajas 10 8
1B 25 Daniel Murphy# 7 10
2B 34 Luis Castillo 13 11
SS 27 Jose Reyes 16 17
3B 27 David Wright 25 26
RF 26 Jeff Francouer 10 11
CF 33 Carlos Beltran 21 18
LF 31 Jason Bay 25 21
C2 38 Henry Blanco 4 3
INF 29 Mike Jacobs 8 8
OF 28 Angel Pagan 8 8
12 35 Fernando Tatis 8 6
13 34 Alex Cora 5 4
SP1 31 Johan Santana 17 14
SP2 26 Mike Pelfrey 6 7
SP3 29 John Maine 6 5
SP4 28 Oliver Perez 5 5
SP5 23 Jonathon Niese+ 1 4
RP1 28 Francisco Rodriguez 13 12
RP2 33 Pedro Feliciano 6 4
RP3 20 Jennry Mejia+ 0 6
RP4 35 Hisanori Takahashi+ 0 6
RP5 27 Fernando Nieve 2 2

Subjective Adjustments: None; I would have adjusted Beltran and Reyes downward for their injuries, but both are already valued on the basis of missing a huge amount of time last season, and Reyes is expected back early anyway. Murphy joins them on the DL to open the season.
Also on Hand: Position players – A cast of thousands, and they’ll be needed. Gary Matthews jr., Frank Catalanotto, Ike Davis, Nick Evans, Omir Santos, Josh Thole, Ruben Tejada, Wilmer Flores, Fernando Martinez, Russ Adams.
Tejada’s been rushed to the Opening Day roster, but he’s a 20-year-old who hit .289/.351/.381 last year in AA; he’s obviously not ready to hit major league pitching.
Pitchers – Kelvim Escobar, Bobby Parnell, Pat Misch, Sean Green, Kiko Calero, Nelson Figueroa.

Analysis: Mind you, I tried to play it conservative with the Mets, not listing established players like Matthews, Escobar, Calero, and Catalanotto (of whom Matthews and Catalanotto are on the roster, and Matthews in today’s lineup), and they’re still second. That’s a testimony to how much established talent is still on hand here, even with all the injuries, as well as the mediocrity of the Phillies’ competition.
EWSL’s standard rookie-reliever adjustment could be optimistic about the two new guys. Jerry Manuel and Omar Minaya are definitely going out on a limb using untested pitchers like Mejia and Takahashi over Green, Parnell and Calero, but it’s not as if Green and Parnell set the world on fire last season. Mejia’s walked almost 4 men per 9 innings in the low minors, which makes me skeptical of him.
Pelfrey, Maine and Perez remain the biggest variables here. Pelfrey needs to have a little better luck on balls in play and keep his walk and homer rates low. Perez needs to get his velocity back. Maine is probably the best bet of the three for quality, but the most dubious in terms of durability; this may be his last chance to establish himself as being able to carry a full rotation starter’s workload, especially given how many pitches he throws per inning.
Murphy’s injury may not be a bad thing, with a Jacobs/Tatis platoon likely to produce some power, at least. Jacobs had a horrific year last season, but his career slugging percentage against right-handed pitching is .505; while that’s the sum total of his value as a major leaguer, if he can put up those kinds of numbers that could be a productive platoon. Murphy, by contrast, has 14 homers and 56 walks in 707 career plate appearances; even with great doubles power (47 career doubles, 7 career triples), Murphy – like Rico Brogna before him – needs to hit over .300 to be of any use as a first baseman with those numbers and glovework that’s not spectacular.
I’ll reiterate quickly my views on the rest. Bay, of course, is a quality acquisition, assuming he has no concealed injury risks. Francouer, I still hope, can have a Joe Guillen-like prime in which he’s briefly able to have his natural talent overcome his impatience for a couple years, but he’s still basically a hacker whose only reliable skill is his throwing arm. Josh Thole should be the starting catcher, and hopefully will be once he establishes himself in AAA. Blanco and Barajas are both decent enough weak-hitting veteran backup catcher types, but combining the two doesn’t accomplish much.
And hopefully, Wright’s first-inning homer today is a good sign. I think he was pressing last year after Beltran went down, and don’t see any reason why his power numbers should continue to lag.
Atlanta Braves
Raw EWSL: 202.67 (81 W)
Adjusted: 226.01 (88 W)
Age-Adj.: 213.89 (84 W)
WS Age: 29.89
2010 W-L: 84-78

C 26 Brian McCann 19 20
1B 33 Troy Glaus 9 8
2B 26 Martin Prado 9 10
SS 27 Yunel Escobar 18 19
3B 38 Chipper Jones 22 15
RF 20 Jason Heyward+ 0 11
CF 28 Nate McLouth 19 20
LF 25 Melky Cabrera 11 13
C2 33 Dave Ross 6 5
INF 32 Eric Hinske 6 5
OF 32 Matt Diaz 10 8
12 28 Omar Infante 7 7
13 30 Joe Thurston* 3 5
SP1 24 Jair Jurrjens 13 14
SP2 37 Derek Lowe 11 9
SP3 23 Tommy Hanson* 5 11
SP4 34 Tim Hudson 8 6
SP5 34 Kenshin Kawakami* 4 5
RP1 38 Billy Wagner 6 5
RP2 40 Takahasi Saito 9 6
RP3 31 Peter Moylan 5 4
RP4 25 Eric O’Flaherty 3 3
RP5 24 Kris Medlen* 2 3

Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Position players – Jordan Schafer, last year’s failed rookie experiment.
Pitchers – Jo-Jo Reyes, Scott Proctor.
Analysis: 13 Hall of Fame outfielders have had 400 or more plate appearances as rookies at age 22 or younger; their average season was .302/.362/.467 with 85 Runs, 76 RBI, 14 homers and 10 steals. The best modern ones of the bunch – Ted Williams, Frank Robinson and Joe DiMaggio. Not included in that group – Mickey Mantle, who hit .267/.349/.443 in 386 plate appearances as a 19-year-old rookie, Barry Bonds (age 21, .223/.330/.416); Ken Griffey (age 19, .264/.329/.420); Manny Ramirez (age 22, .269/.357/.521 in a strike-shortened season). All of which is to say, keep your expectations in check for Jason Heyward – maybe he’ll be as great at age 20 as Williams, Robinson, Ty Cobb, A-Rod, Mel Ott, Mantle, or Kaline, but Williams and Robinson are the only ones of those guys who were making their first trip around the league. More likely, even if he’s Cooperstown-bound, is something more like Mantle at 19.
The Braves have a regular UN going – Saito and Kawakami from Japan, Jurrjens from Curacao, Moylan from Australia, Escobar from Cuba, Prado and Infante from Venezuela, Melky from the Dominican.
Undoubtedly, the biggest problem Atlanta faces, even with a possibly healthy Hudson, a full season from Hanson, and the veteran imports in the pen, is replacing the productivity of Javier Vazquez (219.1 IP, 2.87 ERA), Rafael Soriano (75.2 IP in 77 games, 2.97 ERA), and Mike Gonzalez (74.1 IP in 80 games, 2.42 ERA); over 369.1 IP those three combined to strike out 430 batters (10.48 per 9 IP), walk 104 (2.53 per 9), allow 33 homers (0.80 per 9) and surrender just 290 hits (7.07 per 9).
Florida Marlins
Raw EWSL: 170.33 (70 W)
Adjusted: 204.11 (81 W)
Age-Adj.: 209.92 (83 W)
WS Age: 27.35
2010 W-L: 83-79

C 29 John Baker# 10 11
1B 26 Gaby Sanchez+ 0 11
2B 30 Dan Uggla 20 18
SS 26 Hanley Ramirez 32 36
3B 28 Jorge Cantu 15 15
RF 29 Cody Ross 15 14
CF 23 Cameron Maybin* 2 2
LF 25 Chris Coghlan* 11 26
C2 29 Ronny Paulino 7 6
INF 25 Emilio Bonifacio# 4 6
OF 29 Brian Barden 1 0
12 34 Wes Helms 5 4
13 27 Brett Carroll* 3 5
SP1 26 Josh Johnson 12 12
SP2 26 Anibal Sanchez 3 3
SP3 27 Ricky Nolasco 8 7
SP4 23 Chris Volstad# 4 6
SP5 32 Nate Robertson 3 2
RP1 26 Leo Nunez 7 7
RP2 27 Reynel Pinto 4 4
RP3 28 Dan Meyer* 3 6
RP4 31 Brian Sanches* 3 5
RP5 27 Burke Badenhop# 3 3

Subjective Adjustments: None, but I’d bet on Maybin to beat his EWSL, as well as Anibal Sanchez, if healthy. Brian Sanches starts the season on the DL with a hamstring issue.
Also on Hand: Position players – Mike Lamb
Pitchers – Clay Hensley, Rick Vanden Hurk, Andrew Miller, Jose Veras.
Analysis: The youngest team by Win Shares age in the five divisions I’ve reviewed so far, the Marlins are the Brazil of baseball: the team of the future and always will be. Well, except that they do have two World Championship flags with teams that acquired veterans in a timely fashion…but this is not such a team, unless they make some big strikes at the trade deadline – these Marlins are yet another young-talent outfit. And as per usual of late, recent pitching injuries are the main source of uncertainty.
As always, a downside to doing these previews in serial format is having at least one guy every year who shows up twice, in this case Nate Robertson, penciled out of the Detroit rotation and into Florida’s.
Washington Nationals
Raw EWSL: 165.67 (68 W)
Adjusted: 179.84 (73 W)
Age-Adj.: 170.07 (70 W)
WS Age: 29.53
2010 W-L: 70-92

C 38 Ivan Rodriguez 8 6
1B 30 Adam Dunn 22 20
2B 34 Adam Kennedy 12 10
SS 24 Ian Desmond+ 1 11
3B 25 Ryan Zimmerman 17 21
RF 32 Willie Harris 9 7
CF 29 Nyjer Morgan 9 9
LF 31 Josh Willingham 13 11
C2 25 Jesus Flores 6 7
INF 32 Cristian Guzman 12 10
OF 28 Willie Taveras 6 6
12 28 Mike Morse 1 1
13 27 Alberto Gonzalez# 4 4
SP1 25 John Lannan 8 9
SP2 31 Jason Marquis 12 9
SP3 35 Livan Hernandez 4 3
SP4 26 Craig Stammen* 2 3
SP5 27 Garrett Mock# 1 1
RP1 26 Matt Capps 6 6
RP2 28 Jason Bergmann 3 2
RP3 25 Tyler Clippard* 3 6
RP4 28 Brian Bruney 4 4
RP5 39 Miguel Batista 5 4

Subjective Adjustments: None. I take no legal responsibility for the accuracy of Livan Hernandez’ reported age.
Also on Hand: Position players – Justin Maxwell, Wil Nieves, Chris Coste, Eric Bruntlett.
Pitchers – As always, plenty of arms indistinguishable (at least) with the guys being trotted out. Stephen Strasburg is supposed to be the next Dwight Gooden if not the next Walter Johnson; I buy him as the next big thing, but as with Heyward the record of rookie pitchers gives some caution – Strasburg’s unlikely to have a better career than Roger Clemens or Greg Maddux, who had rookie ERAs of 4.32 and 5.61, respectively. Also the rehabbing Jordan Zimmerman and Chien-Ming Wang, Scott Olsen, Tyler Walker, Sean Burnett, Doug Slaten, and Shairon Martis. Ron Villone was cut recently.
Analysis: For a team that’s supposed to be rebuilding, there’s a surprisingly small number of un-established players here until Strasburg descends from the clouds, although with the addition of veterans like Kennedy, the Nats should at least not match last season’s 103-loss fiasco. How sad is the pitching staff? Aside from Strasburg, who will probably be mentioned in almost every sentence written about this team this year, Baseball Prospectus projects Jason Marquis to lead the staff with 90 strikeouts.
Aside from Strasburg, the other rookie on the radar here is Desmond, who looks like a prospect if you look at his 2009: he batted .306/.372/.494 in 189 plate appearances at AA, .354/.428/.461 in 205 PA at AAA, and .280/.318/.561 in 89 PA for the Nats. Unfortunately, even including those numbers, his career minor league line is .259/.326/.388.
As with Mark DeRosa in San Francisco, Willie Harris starting in an outfield corner is diagnostic. Strasburg can’t arrive soon enough.
Ivan Rodriguez is fading fast; at age 38, he’s clearly on hand mainly to provide a veteran to work with Strasburg. He’s batted .278/.304/.418 the last five seasons, and the Nats will be thrilled if he can match even that after last year’s .249/.280/.384. Even Pudge’s legendary arm is not quite what it was; the past three years, he’s caught 31%, 32% and 35% of opposing base thieves, allowing 47, 52 and 41 steals – still good numbers, but down from catching at least 48% of opposing baserunners 9 of the prior 12 years and the first time he’d allowed more than 40 steals in a season since 1996, when he caught a career-high 1223.1 innings. Can he keep an everyday job for three more years? He has 2,711 hits, and two more years of about a hundred hits a year (he’s averaged 108 the past two) would get him close enough to possibly reach 3,000 by hanging on as a backup. How amazing would that be? Ted Simmons, with 2,472 hits, is a distant second among players to spend at least half their career games at catcher, but Pudge has caught 96% of his career games – Jason Kendall, with 2,084 hits, is the only other catcher with 2,000 hits to catch 90% of his career games.

The Method
For those of you who are unfamiliar, EWSL is explained here, and you should read that link before commenting on the method; 2010 revisions to the age and rookie adjustments are discussed here.
Bear in mind as always that (1) EWSL is a record of past performance, adjusted by age to give a probabalistic assessment of the available talent on hand; it is not an individualized projection system – EWSL tells you what you should reasonably expect to happen this year if there are no surprises, rather than shedding light on how to spot the surprises before they happen; (2) individual EWSL are rounded off but team totals are compiled from the unrounded figures; and (3) as demonstrated here, here, here, here and here in some detail, nearly all teams will win more games than their EWSL total because I’m only rating 23 players per team. (I’m not convinced going to 24 or 25 would make the system more useful, since it would tend to overrate teams that stuff their back bench slots with aging ex-regulars). That said, I also don’t adjust for available playing time, since as a general rule, teams that have excess depth of players with established track records are better off than those that are stretching to cover their whole roster with guys who have proven they can do the job. The line for each team’s estimated 2010 W-L record adds EWSL plus 39.42 Win Shares, which is the average number of Win Shares by the rest of the team’s roster (i.e., the players other than the 23 listed before the season) over the teams I have tracked the past five seasons (it went up this season, as the average team’s EWSL in 2009 undershot its final win total by 41.82 Win Shares).
As always, the depth charts here are drawn from multiple sources (my starting points are the depth charts at Baseball Prospectus.com and RotoTimes, modified by press reports and my own assessments) to list the guys who will do the work (e.g., if there are two guys battling for a fifth starter spot I’ll often list one of them with the relievers if I think they’ll both end up pitching; in some cases I will list a guy who is starting the year on the DL or in the minors), but I take responsibility for any errors. It’s still a fluid time for rosters.
Prior NL East previews here: 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009.

2 thoughts on “2010 NL East EWSL Report”

  1. Are you going to just skip the NL Central? Because you might as well. What an ugly division. (And as my handle suggests, I’m a Reds’ fan!)

  2. Not skipping, just busy, and with 6 teams the NL Central is always the most time-consuming; that’s why I rarely get through it by Opening Day.

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