Month: April 2011

2011 NL West EWSL Report

Part 4 of my very-belated preseason previews is the NL West; this is the fourth of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Notes and reference links on the EWSL method are below the fold; while EWSL is a simple enough method that will be familiar to long-time readers, it takes a little introductory explaining, so I’d suggest you check out the explanations first if you’re new to these previews. Team ages are weighted by non-age-adjusted EWSL, so the best players count more towards determining the age of the roster.
Prior previews: the AL West, AL East & AL Central.
Some players are rated based on less than three seasons or given a rookie rating. Key:
+ (Rookie)
* (Based on one season)
# (Based on two seasons)
World Champion San Francisco Giants
Raw EWSL: 239.17 (96 W)
Adjusted: 264.00 (101 W)
Age-Adj.: 248.71 (96 W)
WS Age: 29.59
2011 W-L: 96-66

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	24	Buster Posey*	10	26
1B	23	Brandon Belt+	0	11
2B	33	Freddy Sanchez	13	11
SS	37	Miguel Tejada	19	12
3B	24	Pablo Sandoval	15	19
RF	34	Aubrey Huff	20	17
CF	33	Aaron Rowand	11	9
LF	34	Pat Burrell	12	11
C2	31	Eli Whiteside#	2	2
INF	31	Mike Fontenot	8	7
OF	33	Andres Torres#	14	12
12	27	Nate Schierholtz	6	6
13	30	Cody Ross	15	13
SP1	27	Tim Lincecum	19	17
SP2	26	Matt Cain	17	18
SP3	28	Jonathan Sanchez	10	10
SP4	21	Madison Bumgarner*	4	10
SP5	33	Barry Zito	8	5
RP1	29	Brian Wilson	15	13
RP2	28	Sergio Romo	6	6
RP3	37	Guillermo Mota	3	2
RP4	32	Jeremy Affeldt	6	5
RP5	29	Ramon Ramirez	8	7

Subjective Adjustments: None. I could downgrade Brandon Belt, who’s already lost his job and been demoted, and/or cut the points the Giants get for having all those outfielder on the bench, but (1) I still expect Belt to return and contribute a good deal (he’s a tremendous across-the-board talent) and (2) the early stumble of a highly talented rookie is why it comes in handy to have the depth to just slide Huff to first base and give more playing time to the outfielders.
Also on Hand: Position players – Mark DeRosa, Darren Ford.
Pitchers – Santiago Casilla, Javier Lopez, Dan Runzler.
Analysis: The Giants as always have an aging lineup, although if Belt returns and Sandoval continues his return to form, they actually for once could have a core of guys under 30 who can hit – and that, plus the sheer number of veterans with some gas left in the tank, makes them formidable. The pitching staff remains their strength.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Raw EWSL: 242.67 (94 W)
Adjusted: 246.93 (96 W)
Age-Adj.: 221.49 (87 W)
WS Age: 30.47
2011 W-L: 87-75

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	35	Rod Barajas	12	9
1B	27	James Loney	17	18
2B	31	Juan Uribe	14	12
SS	36	Jamey Carroll	11	8
3B	37	Casey Blake	16	10
RF	29	Andre Ethier	22	21
CF	26	Matt Kemp	19	21
LF	28	Tony Gwynn jr.	7	7
C2	27	Dioner Navarro	6	6
INF	34	Aaron Miles	4	3
OF	34	Marcus Thames	6	5
12	33	Rafael Furcal	17	14
13	23	Jerry Sands+	0	4
SP1	23	Clayton Kershaw	12	14
SP2	26	Chad Billingsley	11	12
SP3	36	Hiroki Kuroda	9	8
SP4	35	Ted Lilly	12	9
SP5	31	Jon Garland	11	9
RP1	27	Jonathan Broxton	10	9
RP2	32	Matt Guerrier	8	6
RP3	29	Hong-Chih Kuo	10	9
RP4	33	Vicente Padilla	7	5
RP5	28	Blake Hawksworth#	2	2

Subjective Adjustments: None. I don’t really need a subjective adjustment to reflect the annual recurrence of Rafael Furcal getting hurt.
Also on Hand: Position players – Xavier Paul, AJ Ellis.
Pitchers – Mike MacDougal, who like Jeff Francouer has compiled quite a track record of using good first impressions to sucker a new employer; Kenley Jansen, Ramon Troncoso, Lance Cormier.
Analysis: Kemp (.378/.460/.612), Ethier (.380/.451/.560) and Blake (.321/.446/.509) have been off to a strong start – indeed, two days ago, Kemp & Ethier had identical batting and OBP lines – 108 PA, 95 AB, 36 H, 13 BB, .379/.454. Kemp has slowed a bit on the bases after stealing 8 bases in the season’s first 13 games. And Kershaw has shown flashes of intense brilliance, albeit amidst some of his usual inconsistency, while the defense has been the majors’ best (a .739 DER against balls in play, which is higher than sustainable for a full season). But the Dodgers have yet to pull much together around the front-line talent. Really, this team needs a bust-out year from Kershaw and Kemp supported by big years from Ethier and Billingsley to contend.
Colorado Rockies
Raw EWSL: 204.83 (82 W)
Adjusted: 215.33 (85 W)
Age-Adj.: 207.14 (82 W)
WS Age: 28.68
2011 W-L: 82-80

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	28	Chris Iannetta	8	8
1B	37	Todd Helton	13	8
2B	26	Jonathan Herrera*	3	6
SS	26	Troy Tulowitzki	22	24
3B	27	Jose Lopez	11	11
RF	28	Seth Smith	10	10
CF	25	Dexter Fowler#	12	17
LF	25	Carlos Gonzalez	17	20
C2	28	Jose Morales#	2	2
INF	33	Ty Wigginton	8	7
OF	31	Ryan Spilborghs	8	7
12	26	Ian Stewart	9	10
13	40	Jason Giambi	8	4
SP1	27	Ubaldo Jimenez	19	17
SP2	30	Jorge De La Rosa	9	7
SP3	28	Jason Hammel	8	7
SP4	23	Jhoulys Chacin*	5	11
SP5	32	Aaron Cook	8	6
RP1	27	Huston Street	11	10
RP2	36	Rafael Betancourt	7	6
RP3	31	Matt Belisle	6	5
RP4	31	Matt Lindstrom	4	3
RP5	25	Esmil Rogers*	0	0

Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Position players – Quite a lot of familiar faces hanging around for what could be a last chance – Alfredo Amezaga, Mike Jacobs, Willy Taveras, Josh Fields.
Pitchers – Franklin Morales, Matt Reynolds, Felipe Paulino, Matt Daley.
Analysis: Historically, as Troy Tulowitzki goes, so go the Rockies, and this season’s been no exception – Carlos Gonzalez is hitting an anemic .214/.269/.286, Ubaldo Jimenez is winless and disabled with a 6.75 ERA, Cook hasn’t pitched yet, and Jose Lopez has been the anti-Babe Ruth, batting .143/.169/.254 (OPS+ of 7, yet his OPS is double Ian Stewart’s), the team batting average is .239, but backed by Tulo’s blistering .326/.416/.674 start, the Rox are an MLB-leading 16-7. Obviously some good hitting from others in the lineup and some great bullpen help has helped. I’d bet on Colorado to exceed EWSL’s 82-win estimate, but there are some real holes to be patched (especially third base and in the starting rotation) if this team is going to make a serious run at the Giants.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Raw EWSL: 164.33 (68 W)
Adjusted: 185.30 (75 W)
Age-Adj.: 181.35 (74 W)
WS Age: 28.82
2011 W-L: 74-88

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	27	Miguel Montero	10	10
1B	28	Juan Miranda+	1	11
2B	29	Kelly Johnson	16	15
SS	28	Stephen Drew	19	19
3B	30	Ryan Roberts#	3	3
RF	23	Justin Upton	15	18
CF	27	Chris Young	15	16
LF	24	Gerardo Parra#	6	9
C2	39	Henry Blanco	4	3
INF	39	Melvin Mora	10	7
OF	35	Russell Branyan	10	7
12	32	Xavier Nady	6	5
13	33	Willie Bloomquist	5	4
SP1	30	Joe Saunders	10	8
SP2	24	Daniel Hudson*	5	10
SP3	26	Ian Kennedy	6	6
SP4	29	Armando Galarraga	6	5
SP5	25	Barry Enright*	3	7
RP1	34	JJ Putz	5	4
RP2	27	Juan Gutierrez#	4	4
RP3	32	Aaron Heilman	4	3
RP4	26	David Hernandez#	4	5
RP5	27	Esmerling Vazquez#	2	2

Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Position players – Josh Wilson, Geoff Blum.
Pitchers – Zach Duke and the “no-names” bullpen – Joe Paterson, Sam Demel, Joshua Collmenter, Kameron Mickolio.
Analysis: I think I’ve internalized for too long the parity of the NL West, so it’s hard to look at the poor condition of Arizona and San Diego without mentally downgrading the whole division. But it’s normal for good divisions to have good teams and bad teams.
Arizona’s hitters have been overrated for a while due to the ballpark, and its pitching has never really recovered from the collapse of Brandon Webb. The team is starting to rebuild a little better, but it may take some time.
This bench has quite a collection of guys you didn’t think would still be playing at this age.
San Diego Padres
Raw EWSL: 189.83 (77 W)
Adjusted: 197.40 (79 W)
Age-Adj.: 181.00 (74 W)
WS Age: 29.49
2011 W-L: 74-88

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	27	Nick Hundley	9	9
1B	32	Brad Hawpe	12	9
2B	33	Orlando Hudson	17	14
SS	31	Jason Bartlett	18	15
3B	27	Chase Headley	14	14
RF	28	Will Venable	11	11
CF	24	Cameron Maybin#	5	7
LF	32	Ryan Ludwick	19	15
C2	28	Rob Johnson#	5	6
INF	29	Jorge Cantu	13	13
OF	30	Chris Denorfia	5	5
12	24	Kyle Blanks#	3	4
13	28	Alberto Gonzalez	3	3
SP1	27	Clayton Richard	8	7
SP2	23	Matt Latos#	7	9
SP3	33	Aaron Harang	4	3
SP4	29	Tim Stauffer#	6	6
SP5	29	Dustin Moseley	1	1
RP1	33	Heath Bell	13	9
RP2	27	Luke Gregerson#	6	7
RP3	32	Mike Adams	8	6
RP4	25	Ernesto Frieri*	2	4
RP5	32	Chad Qualls	5	4

Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Position players – Eric Patterson, Cedric Hunter. I think it’s safe by now to conclude that Patterson’s .373 OBP in 2009 was a fluke.
Pitchers – Pat Neshek, Cory Luebke, Wade LeBlanc.
Analysis: Here we have a one-man team when the one man leaves. The Pads have stitched together some adequate veterans – the double-play combination should help the pitching staff. But there’s no core here you can build anything around in the foreseeable future.
There’s hardly a more under-heralded player in baseball right now than Ernesto Frieri, who has to make Heath Bell expendable, as good as Bell is. Between them, Bell, Frieri and Adams have a 1.78 ERA since 2009 – 2.24 if you include Gregerson, who has similar numbers except that he’s more homer-prone than the other three. The overall line for the four since 2009: 6.18 H/9, 0.41 HR/9, 3.04 BB/9, and 10.40 K/9. Even considering the pitcher-friendly expanses of Pecto, that’s something else. Frieri currently sports a ridiculous 1.50 career ERA and 11.4 career K/9, and in the early going thus far he’s cut his walks in half from 2010.

Continue reading 2011 NL West EWSL Report

Haley Barbour Not Running For President in 2012

If there is one thing we should have learned from the 2008 primary and general elections, to say nothing of 1996, it’s that being a good presidential candidate on paper is useless; you have to want it – want it badly enough to hire a serious staff, badly enough to trim a few positions and hard edges to fit the various demands of the primary and general electorates, badly enough to endure the most exhaustive efforts to tear apart your entire life for public entertainment, badly enough to spend endless weary hours fundraising and stumping in Iowa and New Hampshire and enduring crummy bus rides with grumpy reporters and town halls with cranks and half-wits and left-wing troublemakers. Your family needs to want it too – a man whose wife doesn’t want him to be president will not become president. It’s a big, life-consuming commitment, and you don’t do it halfway.
Add Haley Barbour now to the list of people who simply were not willing to make that 100% commitment, and Gov. Barbour knows himself and the task well enough not to pretend otherwise and run halfway:

“A candidate for president today is embracing a ten-year commitment to an all-consuming effort, to the virtual exclusion of all else,” Barbour added. “His (or her) supporters expect and deserve no less than absolute fire in the belly from their candidate. I cannot offer that with certainty, and total certainty is required.”

Gov. Barbour’s combination of folksy populism and gravitas, and his matchless rolodex as 1994 RNC chairman and 2010 RGA chairman – the two greatest years for GOP candidates across the country in a long time – would have made him a formidable entrant into the race. He had his weaknesses as a candidate too, which are moot now; the point is that a fully committed Barbour would have been a factor. Perhaps we should have suspected this was coming when his right-hand man at RGA, Nick Ayers, instead signed up for the Pawlenty campaign.
The roster of candidates who are genuinely serious GOP contenders – especially if you look at who has won a statewide election some time in the past decade – remains limited. All eyes will now turn to the people who remain on the fence (Sarah Palin, Mitch Daniels, Mike Huckabee) or denying they’re interested (Chris Christie, Rick Perry, Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan) to see who else might round out the field. In particular, the field now seems especially thin on Southerners for a party with so many officeholders in the region.
There’s still plenty of time to jump in; there’s perhaps less time now to hire staff and raise money. It’s early still; but as Yogi Berra said, it gets late early out there.

Concentrated Ignorance

The Soros-funded “Think Progress” (two lies for the price of one!) pays a number of writers to obsess about finding the Koch brothers under their bed. Powerline’s John Hinderaker administers a spectacular beat-down to one of those writers, Lee Fang, on the subject of a particularly loopy conspiracy theory about oil futures. It’s quite clear that Fang does not know even the first thing about the commodity futures markets or the oil business, and makes one glaring error after another on the subject – not minor errors, mind you, but errors like not having the first clue how markets work, how oil companies make money, or how oil prices were affected by the global economic slowdown in late 2008.
It can often be frustrating dealing with left-wing blogs, because they have so much more paid manpower and free time compared to the largely volunteer corps of conservative blogs, which are disproportionately staffed by people with day jobs and families. But in cases like this one, what matters more is the competitive advantage of the conservative blogosphere in having more people who have actual experience in the business world.

Abortion By The Numbers

With the recent debate over federal taxpayer funding of Planned Parenthood bringing the abortion debate back to the surface, it is sometimes useful to look at the numbers to get a little perspective on why this issue is such a large one. (All of these are estimates, and sources vary, but there’s no serious debate as to the scale of the numbers).
Number killed or missing in action in all wars in U.S. history: 1,343,812. Adding the wounded: 2,489,335.
Number killed or missing in action in U.S. wars since 1973: 12,387. Adding the wounded: 96,680.
Number of executions in U.S. history dating back to 1608: 15,269.
Number of executions in U.S. history dating back to 1930: 3,859.
Number of executions in U.S. history dating back to 1977 (after the Supreme Court lifted a decade-long moratorium): 1,099 through 2008.
Number killed in the September 11 attacks: 2,977.
Number of detainees waterboarded by the CIA under President Bush: 3.
Number of abortions in the U.S. since 1973: 53,310,843 through 2010.
Number of abortions per year in the U.S. since 1973: 1,402,917.
Number of abortions per month in the U.S. since 1973: 116,910.
Number of abortions per week in the U.S. since 1973: 26,979.
Number of abortions per day in the U.S. since 1973: 3,841.
Number of abortions by Planned Parenthood in the U.S. in 2009: 332,278, more than 900 per day, or 27.6% of all abortions in the U.S.
You know, there are a lot of issues I care about, as a conservative Republican. I don’t especially like having to draw lines in the sand over abortion, and if you’re reading this, even if you’re pro-life, chances are you don’t either. But it is useful at times to prick our consciences with the sheer scale of this atrocity, happening daily under our noses. Liberal activists and lawyers devote massive efforts every year to battling the death penalty – yet all the executions of the post-Roe era don’t even add up to a third of a day’s worth of the number of abortions. We agonize, and rightly so, over the cost in life of our wars – but the toll of abortion is equal to fighting the Battle of Antietam, or two Battles of Okinawa, every single week, or two entire Vietnam Wars every month. Our commentariat was racked with paroxysms of moral reproach over three prisoners being waterboarded, yet considers it gauche to even mention well over three thousand abortions daily, each of which destroys a biologically unique human being. (Your religion may override your regard for the science, but there’s no way around the fact that an unborn child has his or her own unique genetic code, the definitive scientific hallmark of an individual).
Numbers alone can’t make the moral judgments that constitute public policy for us. But they can certainly inform our sense of perspective. And looking at the number of abortions is a reminder that maybe, sometimes, we go too far in trying to make this just another issue.

2011 AL Central EWSL Report

Part 3 of my preseason “previews” is the AL Central; this is the third of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Notes and reference links on the EWSL method are below the fold; while EWSL is a simple enough method that will be familiar to long-time readers, it takes a little introductory explaining, so I’d suggest you check out the explanations first if you’re new to these previews. I’ve also resurrected for this season the team ages, which are weighted by non-age-adjusted EWSL, so the best players count more towards determining the age of the roster.
Prior previews: the AL West & AL East.
Some players are rated based on less than three seasons or given a rookie rating. Key:
+ (Rookie)
* (Based on one season)
# (Based on two seasons)
Chicago White Sox
Raw EWSL: 238.17 (93 W)
Adjusted: 253.34 (98 W)
Age-Adj.: 230.98 (90 W)
WS Age: 30.05
2011 W-L: 90-72

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	34	AJ Pierzynski	11	9
1B	35	Paul Konerko	22	16
2B	24	Gordon Beckham#	10	15
SS	29	Alexei Ramirez	18	17
3B	24	Brent Morel+	0	11
RF	28	Carlos Quentin	14	14
CF	30	Alex Rios	16	14
LF	33	Juan Pierre	13	11
DH	31	Adam Dunn	21	17
C2	35	Ramon Castro	5	4
INF	29	Mark Teahen	6	6
OF	26	Lastings Milledge	8	9
13	44	Omar Vizquel	6	3
SP1	26	John Danks	16	17
SP2	32	Mark Buehrle	14	11
SP3	28	Gavin Floyd	13	12
SP4	27	Edwin Jackson	12	11
SP5	30	Jake Peavy	7	6
RP1	34	Matt Thornton	12	9
RP2	22	Chris Sale*	3	6
RP3	29	Jesse Crain	5	4
RP4	29	Tony Pena	5	4
RP5	33	Will Ohman	3	2

Subjective Adjustments: None. As the minimal age adjustments indicate, this is the most established-talent, set-lineup team in the division. Milledge, however, is presently in AAA.
Also on Hand: Position players – Brent Lillibridge, Dayan Vicideo, Tyler Flowers.
Pitchers – Sergio Santos, Jeff Gray, Phil Humber, Gregory Infante.
Analysis: The White Sox are back again with a power-backed lineup and their characteristically stolid starting rotation. If the older guys in the lineup (Konerko, Pierzynski) don’t break down, they should be in the hunt all year, but they’re unlikely to blow the doors off the division.
Minnesota Twins
Raw EWSL: 216.17 (85 W)
Adjusted: 236.87 (92 W)
Age-Adj.: 222.85 (88 W)
Subj. Adj.: 219.85 (87 W)
WS Age: 29.13
2011 W-L: 87-75

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	28	Joe Mauer	29	30
1B	30	Justin Morneau	19	17
2B	26	Tsuyoshi Niskioka+	0	11
SS	26	Alexi Casilla	6	6
3B	26	Danny Valencia*	6	13
RF	29	Jason Kubel	14	14
CF	27	Denard Span	20	20
LF	25	Delmon Young	16	19
DH	40	Jim Thome	14	7
C2	27	Drew Butera*	2	3
INF	29	Matt Tolbert	4	4
OF	32	Michael Cuddyer	14	11
13	30	Jason Repko	1	1
SP1	27	Francisco Liriano	8	8
SP2	35	Carl Pavano	10	8
SP3	28	Brian Duensing#	9	10
SP4	29	Scott Baker	10	9
SP5	29	Nick Blackburn	7	6
RP1	36	Joe Nathan	8	7
RP2	27	Matt Capps	8	8
RP3	26	Jose Mijares#	4	5
RP4	27	Kevin Slowey	7	7
RP5	26	Jeff Manship#	1	1

Subjective Adjustments: I docked Nishioka 3 Win Shares for his early season leg fracture, cutting him down to 8.
Also on Hand: Position players – Ben Revere, Luke Hughes.
Pitchers – Glen Perkins, Anthony Slama, Dusty Hughes.
Analysis: Slowey, Baker and Blackurn have all seen their stock fall, and Liriano’s off to a bad start. Morneau’s healthy but not hitting yet, and Mauer’s not healthy. And I didn’t realize how old Nathan is. And can Thome repeat last year’s rejuvenation? A lot of question marks here.
Detroit Tigers
Raw EWSL: 190.33 (77 W)
Adjusted: 222.86 (88 W)
Age-Adj.: 213.96 (85 W)
WS Age: 28.97
2011 W-L: 85-77

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	24	Alex Avila#	5	7
1B	28	Miguel Cabrera	27	27
2B	28	Will Rhymes*	3	6
SS	29	Jhonny Peralta	15	14
3B	34	Brandon Inge	13	11
RF	37	Magglio Ordonez	13	8
CF	24	Austin Jackson*	9	23
LF	30	Ryan Raburn	9	8
DH	32	Victor Martinez	17	13
C2	26	Casper Wells*	2	4
INF	31	Don Kelly*	3	4
OF	26	Brennan Boesch*	6	12
13	35	Carlos Guillen	7	5
SP1	28	Justin Verlander	17	16
SP2	26	Max Scherzer	10	11
SP3	22	Rick Porcello#	7	11
SP4	33	Brad Penny	4	3
SP5	28	Phil Coke	5	5
RP1	31	Jose Valverde	11	9
RP2	33	Joaquin Benoit	5	3
RP3	24	Brayan Villereal+	0	5
RP4	24	Ryan Perry#	4	5
RP5	33	Brad Thomas*	3	4

Subjective Adjustments: None, although Guillen seems unlikely to contribute much. Casper Wells is obviously not a backup catcher; that’s Victor Martinez, so I just threw Wells into that roster slot. As did the Tigers.
Also on Hand: Position players – Scott Sizemore.
Pitchers – Joel Zumaya, who is facing the dreaded Dr. Andrews. Daniel Schlereth, Enrique Gonzalez.
Analysis: I’m not that high on the Tigers this season. Cabrera seems unlikely to repeat last year’s trouble-free season, Peralta is a serious defensive question mark, and Porcello, the back of the rotation and the bullpen are wobbly. On the upside, maybe this will be the year Scherzer puts it all together.
Cleveland Indians
Raw EWSL: 136.50 (59 W)
Adjusted: 152.40 (64 W)
Age-Adj.: 152.39 (64 W)
WS Age: 28.20
2011 W-L: 64-98

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	25	Carlos Santana*	4	8
1B	26	Matt LaPorta#	4	5
2B	36	Orlando Cabrera	12	9
SS	25	Asdrubal Cabrera	13	15
3B	31	Jack Hannahan	2	2
RF	28	Shin-Soo Choo	24	24
CF	28	Grady Sizemore	9	9
LF	24	Michael Brantley#	4	5
DH	34	Travis Hafner	9	7
C2	25	Lou Marson*	3	6
INF	26	Jason Donald*	3	6
OF	31	Austin Kearns	6	5
13	31	Shelley Duncan	3	3
SP1	27	Fausto Carmona	7	6
SP2	26	Justin Masterson	5	6
SP3	24	Carlos Carrasco#	2	2
SP4	27	Mitch Talbot*	3	5
SP5	26	Josh Tomlin*	2	4
RP1	25	Chris Perez	8	9
RP2	27	Tony Sipp#	3	3
RP3	29	Rafael Perez	4	4
RP4	33	Chad Durbin	5	3
RP5	27	Joe Smith	3	3

Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Position players – Travis Buck, Trevor Crowe (on the 60-day DL at present), Adam Everett, Lonnie Chisenhall, Jason Kipnis. Donald is also on the DL.
Pitchers – Vinnie Pestano, Justin Germano, Frank Herrmann, Alex White, Jeanmar Gomez.
Analysis: It’s obviously easier to say this after their 11-4 start, but there are plenty of places for the Indians to improve on their EWSL, from a recovery by Sizemore (I’m skeptical, since he had the Carlos Beltran surgery, but he’s younger than Beltran) to guys like Santana and LaPorta providing a full season’s production to the young pitchers stepping up. But in the early season enthusiasm, don’t lose sight of how far this team has to come from its proven, established major league performance levels if it’s going to have a winning record.
Kansas City Royals
Raw EWSL: 129.83 (57 W)
Adjusted: 139.90 (60 W)
Age-Adj.: 139.02 (60 W)
Subj. Adj: 142.02 (61 W)
WS Age: 27.74
2011 W-L: 61-101

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	37	Jason Kendall	10	6
1B	27	Kila Ka’aihue*	1	1
2B	27	Chris Getz#	5	7
SS	24	Alcides Escobar#	7	11
3B	29	Wilson Betemit	6	6
RF	27	Jeff Francouer	7	8
CF	26	Melky Cabrera	10	10
LF	27	Alex Gordon	5	5
DH	25	Billy Butler	17	21
C2	35	Matt Treanor	2	2
INF	30	Mike Aviles	9	8
OF	29	Mitch Maier	9	8
13	29	Brayan Pena	3	3
SP1	27	Kyle Davies	5	4
SP2	30	Jeff Francis	3	2
SP3	27	Luke Hochevar	3	3
SP4	34	Bruce Chen	5	4
SP5	24	Vin Mazzaro#	3	4
RP1	27	Joakim Soria	14	13
RP2	29	Robinson Tejeda	5	4
RP3	23	Sean O’Sullivan#	2	2
RP4	21	Tim Collins+	0	5
RP5	25	Blake Wood*	1	2

Subjective Adjustments: I marked up Kila Ka’aihue from 1 to 4 Win Shares, which is probably pretty conservative for a guy who failed miserably last year, but he should get a much longer audition this season.
Also on Hand: Position players – Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas – basically, the next generation of prospects.
Pitchers – Kanekoa Texeira, Jeremy Jeffress, Nathan Adcock, Jesse Chavez, Gregory Holland, Aaron Crow, Mike Montgomery.
Analysis: Like the Indians and the AL East’s weak sisters, the Royals have started well, and combined with the good reputation of the prospects on the way, that suggests that this division may end up more compressed than the EWSL standings suggest. But there’s no better antidote to optimism about the Royals than looking at the people they’re actually counting on for at bats and innings. It’s still a long way out of that hole.

Continue reading 2011 AL Central EWSL Report

Nobody Even Sent Him a Buck Out of Team Loyalty

Have You Seen Me? PLEASE BE IT TO YOUR ATTENTION
URGENT MESSAGE OF BUSINESS
MY NAME IS MR HERBERT KOHL AND I AM A UNITED STATES SENATOR OF THE STATE OF WISCONSIN. I NEED YOUR ASSISTANCE IN AN URGENT TRANSACTION OF BUSINESS TO REMOVE $1 MILLION UNITED STATES DOLLARS FROM MY CAMPAIGN FOR RE-ELECTION IN 2012.

Continue reading Nobody Even Sent Him a Buck Out of Team Loyalty

2011 AL East EWSL Report

Part 2 of my preseason previews is the AL East; this is the second of six division “previews,” using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Notes and reference links on the EWSL method are below the fold; while EWSL is a simple enough method that will be familiar to long-time readers, it takes a little introductory explaining, so I’d suggest you check out the explanations first if you’re new to these previews. I’ve also resurrected for this season the team ages, which are weighted by non-age-adjusted EWSL, so the best players count more towards determining the age of the roster.
Prior preview: AL West.
Some players are rated based on less than three seasons or given a rookie rating. Key:
+ (Rookie)
* (Based on one season)
# (Based on two seasons)
Boston Red Sox
Raw EWSL: 278.00 (106 W)
Adjusted: 280.43 (107 W)
Age-Adj.: 246.27 (95 W)
WS Age: 30.60
2011 W-L: 95-67

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	26	J.Saltalamacchia	3	3
1B	29	Adrian Gonzalez	33	32
2B	27	Dustin Pedroia	18	19
SS	35	Marco Scutaro	17	13
3B	32	Kevin Youkilis	23	19
RF	35	JD Drew	15	11
CF	27	Jacoby Ellsbury	10	11
LF	29	Carl Crawford	24	23
DH	35	David Ortiz	15	11
C2	39	Jason Varitek	5	4
INF	27	Jed Lowrie	6	6
OF	38	Mike Cameron	11	7
13	32	Darnell McDonald#	5	5
SP1	27	Jon Lester	17	16
SP2	26	Clay Buchholz	11	12
SP3	31	Josh Beckett	8	6
SP4	32	John Lackey	12	9
SP5	30	Daisuke Matsuzaka	7	6
RP1	30	Jon Papelbon	13	10
RP2	26	Daniel Bard*	7	9
RP3	33	Dan Wheeler	6	4
RP4	30	Bobby Jenks	8	7
RP5	28	Alfredo Aceves	4	4

Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Pitchers – Tim Wakefield, Dennys Reyes, Matt Albers, Hideki Okajima.
Analysis: EWSL is not as insanely bullish on the Red Sox as last season, and there are some warning signs to be had in the number of 35-year-olds in the lineup. That said, I’m not about to hit the panic button on these guys just from a rough start.
The Hated Yankees
Raw EWSL: 263.83 (101 W)
Adjusted: 266.73 (102 W)
Age-Adj.: 233.73 (91 W)
WS Age: 31.55
2011 W-L: 91-71

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	28	Russell Martin	13	13
1B	31	Mark Teixeira	25	21
2B	28	Robinson Cano	25	25
SS	37	Derek Jeter	22	14
3B	35	Alex Rodriguez	22	16
RF	30	Nick Swisher	19	17
CF	30	Curtis Granderson	18	16
LF	27	Brett Gardner	12	12
DH	39	Jorge Posada	12	9
C2	25	Francisco Cervelli#	5	7
INF	33	Eric Chavez	1	0
OF	34	Andruw Jones	7	6
13	24	Eduardo Nunez*	1	3
SP1	30	CC Sabathia	19	16
SP2	25	Phil Hughes	9	10
SP3	34	AJ Burnett	8	7
SP4	24	Ivan Nova*	1	2
SP5	35	Freddy Garcia	6	5
RP1	41	Mariano Rivera	15	11
RP2	31	Rafael Soriano	11	9
RP3	26	David Robertson	3	4
RP4	25	Joba Chamberlain	6	7
RP5	26	Boone Logan	2	2

Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Position players – Ramiro Pena, Jesus Montero, Gustavo Molina.
Pitchers – Pedro Feliciano, who I pulled out of the lineup at the last minute on the news that he may need surgery; Feliciano averaged 89 appearances a year the past three seasons, so it’s not that shocking that he finally broke. Also Bartolo Colon, Luis Ayala, and David Phelps.
Analysis: Another mark of the AL East leaders’ softening compared to the past few years, the Hated Yankees are sorely lacking in starting pitching depth (are we taking bets on when Joba ends up getting pressed into starting again?) and face the perennial problem of age at key spots in the lineup without real everyday options if the old guys break down (other than subbing Montero or Andruw Jones for Posada). Yet the poor starts by Boston and Tampa and an unaccustomed early awakening by Tex have things looking up for the Bombers. And of course, with the Hated Yankees what matters is frontline talent, because you can never rule out major in-season acquisitions to plug any holes.
Tampa Bay Rays
Raw EWSL: 185.50 (75 W)
Adjusted: 206.20 (82 W)
Age-Adj.: 202.95 (81 W)
WS Age: 28.30
2011 W-L: 81-81

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	27	John Jaso*	8	17
1B	31	Dan Johnson	2	2
2B	30	Ben Zobrist	21	19
SS	25	Reid Brignac#	6	8
3B	25	Evan Longoria	25	31
RF	26	Matt Joyce	6	7
CF	26	BJ Upton	17	18
LF	37	Johnny Damon	17	11
DH	28	Casey Kotchman	9	9
C2	31	Kelly Shoppach	7	6
INF	26	Sean Rodriguez	5	5
OF	29	Sam Fuld#	2	2
13	31	Felipe Lopez	14	12
SP1	25	David Price#	11	14
SP2	29	James Shields	8	7
SP3	28	Jeff Niemann#	8	8
SP4	25	Wade Davis#	5	6
SP5	24	Jeremy Hellickson*	2	3
RP1	35	Kyle Farnsworth	4	3
RP2	24	Jacob McGee+	0	5
RP3	35	Joel Peralta	3	2
RP4	28	Andy Sonnanstine	3	3
RP5	28	JP Howell	6	5

Subjective Adjustments: None, although I expect Johnson to contribute a good deal more than 2 WS.
Also on Hand: Position players – Elliott Johnson, Desmond Jennings (Kotchman has been called up in the short term to take Manny Ramirez’ place, but expect Jennings later in the year), Robinson Chirinos.
Pitchers – Juan Cruz, Cesar Ramos, Adam Russell, Mike Ekstrom, Matt Moore.
Analysis: Having sprung directly from perennial doormat status to the heights of contention, mediocrity will be unaccustomed to Rays fans, but welcome to the 1970-72 Mets. I have faith that this organization will get more out of the bullpen than estimated here and make some useful adjustments on the fly, but their poor start and the loss of Manny underlines what already looked like a season of grappling with the loss of Carl Crawford and Matt Garza and figuring out how to get the next generation of youth to market. Alternatively, with both Toronto and Baltimore improved, it would not take a lot of additional bad breaks to drop them back to the cellar.
Hellickson’s a great talent, but remember that Price took a while to develop and Davis is still working on it. Young pitchers will break your heart.
Baltimore Orioles
Raw EWSL: 197.00 (79 W)
Adjusted: 205.60 (82 W)
Age-Adj.: 195.24 (78 W)
WS Age: 29.79
2011 W-L: 78-84

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	25	Matt Wieters#	9	13
1B	35	Derrek Lee	17	13
2B	33	Brian Roberts	14	12
SS	28	JJ Hardy	10	11
3B	27	Mark Reynolds	18	18
RF	27	Nick Markakis	20	21
CF	25	Adam Jones	13	16
LF	33	Luke Scott	13	11
DH	36	Vladimir Guerrero	15	11
C2	28	Jake Fox#	3	3
INF	31	Cesar Izturis	7	6
OF	26	Felix Pie	5	5
13	27	Robert Andino	1	1
SP1	24	Brian Matusz#	6	8
SP2	32	Jeremy Guthrie	12	9
SP3	25	Jake Arrieta*	3	6
SP4	25	Brad Bergesen#	6	8
SP5	23	Chris Tillman*	1	2
RP1	33	Kevin Gregg	9	6
RP2	33	Mike Gonzalez	5	4
RP3	36	Koji Uehara*	6	6
RP4	29	Jeremy Accardo	1	1
RP5	28	Jim Johnson	5	5

Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Position players – Nolan Reimold, Josh Bell, Craig Tatum.
Pitchers – Zachary Britton (currently subbing for Matusz in the rotation), Justin Duchscherer, Jason Berker, Josh Rupe.
Analysis: The Orioles, by contrast, seem to have picked themselves up off the floor, notwithstanding the fact that as of yet they still seem to be building a team that shoots for .500 rather than first place (a big leap forward by Wieters, Jones and/or the young pitchers could change that). Whether Markakis can restart his arc of improvement, Lee can keep up his late-season hitting for the Braves, Guerrero can squeeze out one more solid year and Reynolds can cut his whiffs down enough to hit .230 will be the short-term questions.
Toronto Blue Jays
Raw EWSL: 186.87 (75 W)
Adjusted: 205.91 (82 W)
Age-Adj.: 191.82 (77 W)
WS Age: 29.41
2011 W-L: 77-85

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	25	JP Arencibia+	1	11
1B	27	Adam Lind	13	13
2B	29	Aaron Hill	15	15
SS	28	Yunel Escobar	17	17
3B	28	Edwin Encarnacion	8	8
RF	30	Jose Bautista	20	18
CF	30	Rajai Davis	12	11
LF	23	Travis Snider#	6	8
DH	32	Juan Rivera	11	9
C2	36	Jose Molina	5	4
INF	36	John McDonald	4	3
OF	35	Scott Podsednik	13	9
13	28	Jayson Nix#	5	6
SP1	26	Ricky Romero#	10	13
SP2	26	Brandon Morrow	6	6
SP3	24	Brett Cecil#	6	8
SP4	23	Kyle Drabek+	0	4
SP5	26	Jesse Litsch	2	2
RP1	31	Frank Francisco	7	5
RP2	32	Jon Rauch	8	7
RP3	37	Octavio Dotel	6	5
RP4	33	Jason Frasor	6	4
RP5	35	Shawn Camp	6	4

Subjective Adjustments: None.
Also on Hand: Position players – Corey Patterson, Brett Lawrie, Mike McCoy.
Pitchers – Carlos Villanueva, Jo-Jo Reyes (who’s currently in Morrow’s spot in the rotation), David Purcey, Marc Rzepcynski.
Analysis: If you were painting a portrait of a team that could potentially take a big leap forward, you’d get something like the Blue Jays: a couple of young-ish players coming off disappointing years (Lind, Hill, Snider, Escobar), a young, power-pitching rotation and a veteran bullpen. How far that takes them is another issue, since third place is usually the Jays’ target at this point.
Through 12 games, Toronto’s pitching staff is on pace for 1363 strikeouts even without having activated Morrow (who struck out 10.9 K/9 last year, better than MLB leader Tim Lincecum, and may be returning soon from an inflamed elbow), which would break the 2001 Yankees’ AL record by a margin of almost 100.

Continue reading 2011 AL East EWSL Report

BASEBALL/ Not Buying Bonds

So the verdict has come down in the Barry Bonds trial, and while the jury was unable to reach a verdict on three counts of perjury, they convicted Bonds of one count of obstruction of justice based on his grand jury testimony regarding whether he was given steroids or HGH by his trainer, Greg Anderson, or allowed Anderson or others besides his doctor to inject him. As with the Manny Ramirez story, this is yet another example of how baseball news has been unable to escape the hangover of the PED scandals.
While I recognize that perjury in a grand jury setting is a huge red flag for any prosecutor, I ultimately think this case was a waste of resources by the Justice Department; it’s hard to see how the whole steroids ring was that major a law enforcement priority to begin with, or Bonds’ testimony that crucial to it, that it was really going to be a useful exercise to pour enormous resources into a public trial of the man. (For background, some thoughts here and here on what makes up a serious enough case of perjury to be worth prosecuting). And that’s coming from a guy who’s hated Bonds for nearly 25 years now.
But while I’m skeptical of the prosecution, the jury verdict isn’t as nonsensical as some people are making it out. Here’s what the judge apparently told the jury about the charges. Unlike the perjury statute, on which I did some work in law school, I am not that well-versed in the caselaw under 18 USC 1503, the obstruction statute; according to a summary on the Justice Department’s website, obstruction can include the following:

Giving false denials of knowledge and memory, or evasive answers…or false and evasive testimony…False testimony may be a basis for conviction, …however, false testimony, standing alone, is not an obstruction of justice.

(Citations omitted; it doesn’t seem from the cases cited that the Supreme Court has yet laid out a definition of obstruction other than to require a very specific intent in false-statements-to-investigators cases). Here, the judge charged the jury in the perjury counts that they needed to find the following elements:

1. The defendant testified under oath before a grand jury;
2. The testimony described above was false;
3. The testimony was material to the grand jury before which he testified; and
4. The defendant knew that the testimony described above was false and material to the grand jury before which he testified.
A statement was material if it had a natural tendency to influence, or was capable of influencing,the decision of the grand jury to which it is addressed.

By contrast, the obstruction charge:

In order for the defendant to be found guilty of Count 5, the government must prove each of the following elements beyond a reasonable doubt:
1. The defendant corruptly, that is, for the purpose of obstructing justice,
2. obstructed, influenced, or impeded, or endeavored to obstruct, influence, or impede the grand jury proceeding in which defendant testified,
3. by knowingly giving material testimony that was intentionally evasive, false, or misleading.
A statement was material if it had a natural tendency to influence, or was capable of influencing, the decision of the grand jury.
The government alleges that the underlined portion of the following statements constitute material testimony that was intentionally evasive, false or misleading. In order for the defendant to be found guilty of Count 5, you must all agree that one or more of the following statements was material and intentionally evasive, false or misleading, with all of you unanimously agreeing as to which statement or statements so qualify:
1. The Statement Contained in Count One
2. The Statement Contained in Count Two
3. The Statement Contained in Count Three

In short, if the jury found that Bonds’ statements were intentionally evasive or misleading, they could convict even without being convinced that they were outright false. That’s a significant difference, and would seem to justify the jury in convicting on an obstruction charge on the same facts on which they were unable to convict on perjury. The statement he was convicted on was Statement C in the charge:

Q: Did Greg [Anderson] ever give you anything that required a syringe to inject yourself with?
A: I’ve only had one doctor touch me. And that’s my only personal doctor. Greg, like I said, we don’t get into each others’ personal lives. We’re friends, but I don’t – we don’t sit around and talk baseball, because he knows I don’t want – don’t come to my house talking baseball. If you want to come to my house and talk about fishing, some other stuff, we’ll be good friends, you come around talking about baseball, you go on. I don’t talk about his business. You know what I mean?…
Q: Right.
A: That’s what keeps our friendship. You know, I am sorry, but that – you know, that – I was a celebrity child, not just in baseball by my own instincts. I became a celebrity child with a famous father. I just don’t get into other people’s business because of my father’s situation, you see…

Presumably, the jury may have felt that Bonds was misleading or evasive by deflecting this question with a denial that he’d had anybody inject him, without explicitly denying what he was asked – whether Anderson gave him something to inject himself with. Which is a common-sense enough reading of that testimony. At least under the perjury statute, it’s not a crime to give a literally true answer that evades the question, the lesson of which – hammered home to most lawyers – is that you need to keep asking until the witness is pinned down. As I said above, I’m not really sure if this is the law under the obstruction statute, but it’s safely within what the judge told the jury, so you can’t fault them for following instructions.

Drilled

Just some numbers for fun. Hall of Famer Hughie Jennings remains the all-time champion in getting hit by pitches – playing his whole career in the days before helmets, Jennings was hit by pitches in 5.1% of his plate appearances, accounting for 13.3% of his times on base (counting hits, walks and HBP). Burt Solomon, in his book Hit Em Where They Ain’t (a good read about the 1890s Orioles) recounts that Jennings was actually terrified to crowd the plate, but trained in the offseason by having John McGraw throw balls at his head constantly until he was able to stand in without flinching.
Among players who lasted long enough to get drilled with 100 pittches, nobody else comes close to that 5.1% figure, but the 1890s were a violent time in the game. Counting only players since 1900 with 100 or more HBP, here’s the top 15 measured by HBP as a percentage of times on base:
Jason LaRue (the modern champ at 11%)
Ron Hunt
Reed Johnson
Fernando Vina
Don Baylor
Jason Kendall
Aaron Rowand
Steve Evans
Chase Utley
Art Fletcher
David Eckstein
Jose Guillen
Frank Chance
Damion Easley
Minnie Minoso
Craig Biggio just misses the list, at #16. I was surprised to see Utley (at 7.6%) that high.

Manny Been Manny

Still short on time here and still trying to get the numbers posted for my annual division previews (yeah, I know), but first a couple points on my late gut reaction to the whole Manny news:
1) This was a fittingly bizarre end to a bizarre career.
2) As I’ve said repeatedly before, I’m neither with the moral-high-horse sportswriters nor the steroids-don’t-matter stathead crowd. Manny’s legacy is and should be tarnished, but I’d still vote for him for Cooperstown. The Hall is really going to be a bad joke if this many players get locked out despite obviously qualifying on the basis of their on-field accomplishments, and that ultimately detracts from the honor given to those who are inducted.
3) Manny served a 50-game suspension for PEDs, and effectively had his career ended by threat of a 100-game suspension. That’s a stuffer When we’re considering Hall of Famers, isn’t it sort of backwards if he gets lumped in the same bucket with guys like McGwire or Palmeiro who never suffered any penalty for PEDs? (Ditto Bonds and Clemens, except for the part where they got indicted, a ridiculous spectacle which is if anything symptomatic of our national reliance on the legal system as a substitute for moral judgments).
4) Manny was a great hitter, great story and great fun to watch. Nothing can take away the joy, the amusement, the championships, and even the water-cooler controversies he brought to the game. Let’s not let anything else obscure that.