Eric Gagne is, of course, the last reliever to win the NL Cy Young Award. If the season were to end today, who would be the top candidate to repeat this accomplishment?
You guessed it: Yhency Brazoban, the current replacement of the injured Dodger closer. According to the Neyer/James model, Brazoban ranks seventh overall among NL contenders — one place ahead of Pedro Martinez. But this ranking depends more on circumstance than on dominance. For instance, Brandon Lyon and Jose Mesa actually have better save totals and ERAs, among other statistics. But Lyon has two losses, which amount to a 4-point penalty. And, whereas Brazoban plays for a first-place team — good for a substantial “victory bonus” — Mesa is stuck with a poor club.
So, if I were Gagne, I wouldn’t worry too much about being eclipsed any time soon.
(*The title comes from this Dodger Thoughts post.)