The Mets are now 32-33. At this point last year, they were 31-34, before a hot streak that pushed them to 44-41 two games before the All-Star Break. Lesson? You can hang around .500 this long and longer and still have the kind of miserable year they had last season.
Granted, an awful lot went wrong in the second half – Glavine, Leiter, Traschel, Looper, Piazza, Floyd, and Hidalgo were all awful, and Matsui got hurt. I don’t see that many people dropping off badly this time, but there could certainly be injuries.
What this means most of all is, the Mets should play their cards very carefully as far as making trades. Last year, they made two win-now deals about a week after it became clear that they were out of the race. This division race could go down to the wire, but they should tread very lightly in terms of sacrificing any part of their future to compete now.
For example, I’m interested in the rumored Matsui-for-Alfonzo deal possibilities. The deal only makes sense if Alfonzo can still play second, which is doubtful. That aside, though, whether such a deal would be a good one depends on what prospect(s) get thrown in to balance it out. Yusmeiro Petit, who appears to have a high upside, would be too much. Jae Seo, who can pitch but is unlikely to ever be any kind of star, on the other hand, I’d be willing to part with (although I’m doubtful that Matsui and Seo would be enough to make that deal).