Making It Home

One of Jose Reyes’ signature gifts is the ability to score runs once he is on base – despite his low to (this year) middling OBPs, Reyes always manages to score a bunch of runs. Last year, he nearly made history, narrowly missing becoming the first player since 1892 to score 100 runs with an OBP below .300.
But is Reyes really the best at scoring once he’s on base? Turns out he’s close, but no, at least this year. I took a look at the players who scored the most runs per time on base not due to home runs. I took a look at every player with 100 plate appearances through last night’s action and ranked them by their runs scored (minus homers) per times on base (minus homers). To correct for the fact that some guys get into scoring position in the first place with their bats, I added to the times-on-base number (doubles)*(.33) (since a double gets you a third of the way from first to home) and (triples)*(.66). I’m sure there’s a more scientific formula, and I think Baseball Prospectus used one in an article a few years ago, but I was looking for something I could run quickly.
Of course, a player’s speed, aggressiveness and heads-up on the basepaths is only one of three variables in scoring runs: you also need to bat near the top of the lineup (you score more runs if you don’t start a lot of innings with two outs) and bat ahead of good hitters. Players who have had at least 100 plate appearances as a leadoff man are listed in italics. As you’ll see from the chart, fast guys, leadoff men and guys on good offenses tend to congregate at the top (Reed Johnson is #1 mainly because of the strength of the Toronto offense thus far, I suspect), and catchers and low-order hitters at the bottom (if you’re wondering, the guy at the bottom is the Colorado Luis Gonzalez). Unsurprisingly, David DeJesus – recovering from injury and playing for a lousy offense – is near the bottom of the leadoff men, but I was surprised to see Gary Matthews jr. and Curtis Granderson, both guys who run reasonably well and bat ahead of power-laden offenses, ranked so low. You can see here some of the offsetting cost to leading off a slower but high-OBP guy like Youkilis or Jason Kendall.