Baseball 2005 Archives

Jeff Reardon charged with sticking up a jewlery store. Sad.

I was talking to some people about Roger Clemens, and thought I'd take a look at precisely how remarkable it is for a guy who has pitched in a 5-man rotation to win 300 games . . . anyway, what I decided to do was chart out the number of starts and relief appearances made by the 22 men who won 300 games. It's actually surprising, when you look at the numbers, how relatively few seasons of 40 or more starts the post-1900 300-game winners have compiled.

I left off complete games and innings, which is another issue; I wanted to focus just on how frequently these guys started and relieved. The chart lists career wins, starts, relief appearances, total seasons, seasons of 40 or more starts, seasons of 50 or more starts, and career high in starts (which is how I ranked the chart, from low to high):

A few notes. Lefty Grove won 300 games while starting only 457. Even with his high number of relief appearances, just think about that. In fact, Grove started more than 33 games only once. I was surprised to see quite how few starts Walter Johnson got per year for a guy who won over 400 games despite pitching for mediocre to lousy teams until his mid-30s; granted, he completed a ton of starts (all 29 in 1918) and like Grove, he doubled as his team's relief ace. In fact, until you get down to Cy Young, there's really nobody who was a 40-a-year guy for more than a couple of seasons. You can also see here how similar Nolan Ryan's and Don Sutton's career totals are.

I'm working on a longer post on a related topic, but thought I'd tease it with a trivia quiz (answer to follow tomorrow): Name the three 300-game winners to make more than 100 career relief appearances.

So Johnny Damon signs with the Hated Yankees, reportedly for 4 years, $52 million; he'll be with the Yanks through age 35. I guess he's not the greatest leadoff man ever after all. And I can't wait for the day when he and Bernie are in the outfield at once. Opposing teams won't even need third base coaches anymore.

The $52 million price tag isn't that bad, given the current market (e.g., $102 million for AJ Burnett & BJ Ryan) and while Damon seems to me to be a bad bet to be worth it by age 35, he will at least provide some solid value. (On the other hand, this is a guy whose OBP from age 27 through 29 was .339, and he's leaving Fenway for a tougher park - Damon's batted .310/.442/.383 at Fenway the past four years, .281/.440/.342 on the road). Still, were I the Yanks I would have sacrificed some offense, pursued a better, cheaper glove man like Mike Cameron, and tried to come up with a younger solution long-term.

On the other hand, the loss of Damon hurts the Red Sox more than it helps the Yankees - Damon is, at present, still a very good player - and that's worth something to the Yankees by itself. With the loss of Damon, the dumping of Renteria, the continuing efforts to deal Manny and the arrival of Josh Beckett and Andy Marte, the Sox are clearly leaning towards a semi-rebuilding mode, as was made necessary by the collapse of Schilling and Foulke.

UPDATE: Lyford thinks the Yankees are way overpaying Damon, given the various reasons to believe he will be less productive the next four years than the last and the fact that he's no better a leadoff man than Jeter, and rounds up some thoughts from Sox fans. I don't entirely disagree, but the Yankees' decision looks wiser when you consider how it hurts the Sox and the fact that, as I've noted before, it ought to be a seller's market for quality center fielders this offseason.

Also, following up on a point in the comments: in his career, Damon has batted an anemic .252/.346/.301 in 63 games at Yankee Stadium, compared to .298/.438/.373 in 66 home games against that same Yankee pitching.

I'm glad to see Teepee Talk noting that the Indians have signed Danny Graves. Just in case Minaya & Randolph got any ideas about bringing him back.

No-maaaaahhhhh signs another one-year deal, this one with the Dodgers. The Dodgers' infield situation is now something of a jumble, featuring Jeff Kent (2B/3B), Nomar (SS/UT), Rafael Furcal (SS/2b?), Bill Mueller (3B/1B?), Oscar Robles (3B), Cesar Izturis (SS), with Hee Seop Choi and Olmedo Saenz apparently platooning at first. Presumably, the addition of both Furcal and Nomar signals the Dodgers' lack of faith that Izturis will return at all in 2006 from Tommy John surgery. Which is wise; Izturis is at best adequate and at worst horrific with the bat, so it's prudent to make sure he doesn't rush back from surgery and damage his ability to make a full recovery as a defensive player, which is his primary asset.

You could argue, I suppose, that given the age and injury history of Kent, Nomar and Mueller, it just makes sense (budget be damned) to have all three of them around and just play whoever is available (especially as insurance if Furcal gets hurt). But if I were Derek Lowe, I'd be heading for the hills; this is not going to be a pretty defensive lineup.

As for Nomar, I fear he's skipped the "Fred Lynn in Anaheim" stage of his career and fast forwarded directly to the "Fred Lynn in Baltimore" stage. Ask Juan Gonzalez what happens to guys who keep needing to sign one-year deals because their health never holds up, to say nothing of the difficulty of putting up Nomar-style numbers at Dodger Stadium. Still, it should be fun to see if he can pull out a second act.

I don't know who will win the NL Central next year, but it won't be the Cardinals.

Well, with the Mets signing Julio Franco to a contract that runs through age 48, it's time to play "how old is Julio Franco"?

*He was drafted by the Phillies in 1978. Players acquired or traded by the Phillies that year included Davey Johnson, Pete Rose, Jay Johnstone, Gene Garber, Ted Sizemore, Butch Metzger and Joe Charboneau.

*Franco was acquired by the Indians in the Von Hayes deal, along with, among others, Manny Trillo.

*Franco's double play partner in Cleveland, Tony Bernazard, is an assistant to Omar Minaya. Bernazard had a 10-year career in the major leagues and retired 14 years ago.

*Franco is a friend of George W. Bush, who attended Franco's wedding. Franco is closer in age to Bush than he is to Mets veterans Pedro Martinez and Carlos Delgado. He's also older than Bill Clinton was when Clinton was elected president, and the same age as Theodore Roosevelt when he was re-elected as president.

*Franco was born in 1958. Other players born that year include Alan Trammell, Mike Scioscia, Dave Righetti, Wade Boggs, Dickie Thon, Alan Wiggins, Orel Hershiser, Neil Allen, Scott Holman, Tim Leary, Teddy Higuera, Atlee Hammaker, Bruce Hurst, Joe Cowley, Marty Bystrom, Nelson Norman, Dan Petry, Tim Teufel, Walt Terrell, and Rafael Santana.

*Franco is older than Harold Baines and Tim Raines. He's two years older than Cal Ripken, Kent Hrbek, Andy Van Slyke, Frank Viola and Fernando Valenzuela. He's three years older than Kirby Puckett and John Kruk. He's four years older than Bo Jackson. He's five years older than Ozzie Guillen. He's six years older than Dwight Gooden. He's nine years older than Robin Ventura.

*Franco is older than Lawrence Taylor, Marcus Allen, Magic Johnson, Ronnie Lott, Freeman McNeil. He's two years older than Eric Dickerson, Ralph Sampson and Joe Morris, three years older than Isiah Thomas, Terry Cummings, Dan Marino and Boomer Esiason, four years older than Patrick Ewing and five years older than Charles Barkley and Al Toon.

*Hall of Famers Christy Mathewson, Lou Gehrig, Roberto Clemente, Tony Lazzeri, Addie Joss, Ross Youngs, Arky Vaughan, Ed Delahanty, Buck Ewing, Pud Galvin, John Clarkson, King Kelly, Rube Waddell, Frank Chance and Old Hoss Radbourn were all dead by the age Franco will be when his contract is up.

*Franco in 2006 will be the same age Sandy Koufax was . . . in 1983.

Noticed while looking up something else: Placido Polanco's Total Bases the past 5 seasons: 216, 221, 220, 222, 224. And in fairly consistent - the past three years, very consistent - numbers of plate appearances: 610, 595, 554, 555, 551. Polanco's one of baseball's more underrated players, a lifetime .300 hitter with a good glove at two infield positions - how many people even noticed him batting .331 this year?

Quick thoughts:

*Well, the Blue Jays are back in the game with the acquisitions of BJ Ryan, AJ Burnett and Lyle Overbay, and they're not done yet. All are good baseball moves, although spending $102 million on Burnett and Ryan seems like a financial decision they may come to regret, especially given that they're still basically working towards building a third place team unless the Red Sox go into rebuilding mode, which seems unlikely with the acquisition of Josh Beckett and Mark Loretta.

*Tough times, by contrast, in Baltimore, even with the arrival of Leo Mazzone and Ramon Hernandez; Hernandez creates a bit of a logjam with Javy Lopez, and the revival of the Jays only makes the division more competitive.

*The trade of Edgar Renteria for Andy Marte - which I know will make at least one of our regular readers happy - is a fascinating challenge. If you apply the basic principles of modern sabermetrics, this looks like a heist for the sabermetrically-oriented Red Sox, who unload a player who is expensive, 30, coming off two straight off years at the plate and a terrible year in the field, and has lost a significant amount of speed (his signature skill) in exchange for a 22-year-old who the Baseball Prospectus named as the best prospect in baseball entering the 2005 season. (Marte batted .275/.506/.372 in AAA Richmond this year, unspectacular but impressive for a 21-year-old in what, if I recall correctly, is a pitcher's park, plus Marte cut his strikeouts as he moved up, a good sign). Even with the Braves needing a shortstop and even given that the Red Sox are eating part of the contract, I have to say that unless the Braves know more about Renteria and/or Marte than we do, this is a steal.

But you know what? They're the Braves. So there's a good chance that they do know more than you or I or the Red Sox know about these two players.

*I could live, I suppose, with the Mets possibly getting Mark Grudzielanek (thank heavens they wouldn't be playing him with Mientkiewicz), if he's cheap and, ideally, a bench player. But I don't like the idea. Grudzielanek is 36 and only useful if he bats .300, and players of his type tend to hit the wall very abruptly around 35-36 (Tommy Herr was 34 when the Mets got him). On the other hand, Jose Valentin is my kind of player, a guy who has had great range and made up for low batting averages with power, some patience, and an ability to avoid the DP. But he's also 36 and batted .170 last season (he also had a huge spike upward in walks, which Bill James thinks can sometimes be a trouble sign for an old player); I don't want to get the tail end of Valentin's career just because he was useful a few years ago. Mercifully, it appears that they've only signed him to a 1-year deal.

But I'm glad the Mets passed on Bernie Williams. You never know anything for sure in this game, but it's hard to be surer about anything than that Bernie is done. With little range and no arm, he's a liability in the field; he's got minimal power now, and has batted .263, .262 and .249 the last three years. Bernie should retire, but he's apparently returning to the Yankees, to do what I can't imagine.

Julio Franco, I like, but a two-year deal for a 47-year-old?

And the Rangers can keep Laynce Nix and his career .285 OBP in Coors Field South.

*Gee, what were the odds that things would end badly for Roger Clemens in Houston, and over money? I still say, as I've said for the past six years, that this ends with Clemens trying to go into Cooperstown in a Devil Rays hat . . . much as I hate to say so, Clemens owes it to baseball to keep pitching. You can't retire while you're that good, you just can't.

Now, whether I'd take him as a Met is another matter. I guess I could hold my nose, and it would be amusing to have a Clemens/Pedro 1-2 punch. But in all seriousness, I'd bet it's probably the Rangers who win out here.

*Alfonso Soriano remains a talented slugger who can play in the middle infield, but his decline at the plate the past two years really has been masked by the park, plus the Nationals are getting him while they still have Jose Vidro, so if they can ever get Vidro healthy they will have to move one of them. I think the Rangers got the better of this deal, adding a guy, Brad Wilkerson, who has power and a lot of plate discipline, although he did have a poor 2005. Wilkerson's a year younger, and as recently as 2004 hit more homers and scored more runs. I wonder how many fewer pitches opposing starters will have to throw this year by exchanging Wilkerson for Soriano.

More on some of the other moves another day, if time permits. It's been a busy winter.

First of all, I continue to be tied up with work stuff, so apologies if blogging has been a bit light around here . . . I was going to blog on the Kris Benson for Mike MacDougal and Jeremy Affeldt rumor, but that seems to have fallen by the wayside now.

Still, I wouldn't be heartbroken to see Benson go:

1. Pedro-Glavine-Heilman-Trachsel-Seo, possibly with Zambrano as a long man/emergency starter, sounds fine to me. They can afford to part with Benson for help elsewhere, say in the bullpen (presumably, they can't find anyone dumb enough to take Benson with one of the Mets' other starters for a better starter).

2. Benson's K/9 rates by month, 2004-05 (Sept. 04 includes one October start, and he missed April 05):

Call me paranoid, but especially with Benson's poor durability record, that severe dropoff the last two months of 2005 scares me. I'm concerned that Benson is a ticking time bomb, and an expensive one.

For Mets fans, at least, a sad day: John Olerud has retired. Olerud can still play - he batted .289/.451/.344 this season, and he drove in 37 runs, which projects out to 128 RBI per 600 at bats - but he's really a bench player at this stage of his career, and I suppose he didn't want to keep playing in that role. Olerud could possibly have been a Hall of Famer if he'd (1) not had a couple of lost years at age 26-27 with the Blue Jays and (2) kept chugging rather than falling off after age 33; his career .295/.465/.398 line is a very solid one, but like Keith Hernandez he was the kind of player who really needed a long career and some milestones to be immortalized.

You'll never see another player cooler under pressure as Olerud - the guy is absolutely unflappable. Throughout his career, he always had a knack for hitting when the rest of his team was cold. I'll always remember his crucial grand slam off Greg Maddux on September 29, 1999, giving the Mets the juice to snap a 7-game losing skid in the heart of the pennant race and set up their miraculous run to the wild card, as well as his reaching base 14 straight times over a key weekend in mid-September 1998. The Mets might well have won the World Series in 2000 if they'd kept Olerud, and even with his later struggles at the end of his Seattle contract, they would have avoided the Mo Vaughn fiasco. Olerud's three-year tenure at Shea left him as the Mets' career leader in batting, OBP and OPS. At his absolute peak, Olerud was a monster offensive force, a fine glove man, and a calm, steadying presence.

So, the Mets plug another hole by going back to the same well that produced Mike Piazza, Al Leiter, Dennis Cook and Carlos Delgado, trading in two relatively unknown (to me, at least) pitching prospects at the Marlins' garage sale for Paul LoDuca. LoDuca's a solid, unspectacular player, 34 years old now, a lifetime .283 hitter but with only modest power and patience who is owed $6.25 million per year in 2006 and 2007. Not a great pickup in the abstract, but probably cheaper and more durable than Ramon Hernandez and a better bat than Bengie Molina. LoDuca's no great shakes defensively. One good sign is that LoDuca, like Piazza, comes to the Mets from two NL pitcher's parks, so what you see on paper is likely to be what you get.

The big decision, of course, is whether to try to ride LoDuca hard in the first half or rest him with a lot of Ramon Castro; LoDuca is just about the most notorious first half hitter in the game, with a lifetime split of .308/.453/.362 before the All-Star Break and .257/.375/.312 after. The question is whether that's a persistent fatigue issue or just a seasonal pattern. The pattern was nearly absent in 2005 (.286/.375/.338 vs. .279/.388/.328), as he got more time off, which could suggest fatigue, or it could just be a sign of decline that he had a typical second half without the great first half.

I assume that the LoDuca deal, coming on the heels of acquiring Delgado and Billy Wagner, is the end of the Mets' shopping spree - after this, they may still deal, but not from need and not to acquire new salary obligations to mop up all the payroll room they cleared with the departures of Piazza (who is now definitively not returning at any price), Cameron and Looper.

This isn't a lawsuit you see every day.

Via Repoz, I see that there's a campaign afoot to promote Bert Blyleven for the Hall of Fame, including the website Bert Belongs. I strongly support this effort. You can see my case for Blyleven (written in December 2000) here, and more on Bert's place among the great pitchers here and here.

I have to like yesterday's moves by the Mets. I've been arguing for a while that they should prefer BJ Ryan over Billy Wagner, but they simply got outbid on Ryan, and Wagner was certainly the best remaining option. His contract - 3 years, $43 million, with an option of a fourth year pushing the deal to $50 million - is pretty overpriced for a 34-year-old closer with an injury history, but that's the market right now, and with the departure of Piazza and Cameron, the Mets have money to spend. As with Pedro, if Wagner's healthy for at least the first two years of the deal he will be worth it.

They also grabbed 29-year-old free agent center fielder Tike Redman, fresh off playing himself out of a regular job with the Pirates. Redman is a weak bat - he should remind Mets fans of Jermaine Allensworth - but he's reputed to be a good glove, and should spell the end of Gerald Williams' Mets career. Minaya has done a very good job of getting guys like this to upgrade the bench. Hopefully, with Redman and Nady, we shouldn't see any middle infielders in the outfield this season.

Well, looks like JP Ricciardi is even more bullish on BJ Ryan than I was, giving him a 5-year, $47 million contract to come to Toronto, the largest ever for a relief pitcher. Ken Rosenthal thinks the deal is nuts, and as enthused as I am about Ryan, I'm half inclined to agree with him - that's a lot of money for any closer, especially for a team that's a long way from filling all its other roster holes, and that much money is a lot of pressure on Ryan. I can't blame the Mets for not matching a deal that big, even if it does pan out well. Of course, I assume Wagner will use this contract to squeeze more money out of the Mets, Phillies and other bidders.

The Mets get Delgado and $7 million for Mike Jacobs and Yusmiero Petit. Some disjointed thoughts on the deal and on other rumored deals:

1. Hey, if the Yankees had traded Kevin Maas for a big established power hitter after 1990, that would have been a good idea. Jacobs' stock will never be higher. I regard Jacobs as the next Rico Brogna, who came to the Mets at age 24 (same as Jacobs) and batted .351/.626/.380 in 131 at bats, compared to .310/.710/.375 for Jacobs in 100 at bats. Brogna, like Jacobs, could hit for a good average with middling power but had little plate discipline; he had one more good year the following season (.289/.485/.342) but was at best a league-average hittter after that, which is poor for a 1B. (Then again, maybe Jacobs he could pull a Mike Sweeney and take a huge step up with the bat now that he's not catching anymore; he's never had a full season where he wasn't catching).

2. Delgado is a big big improvement over Jacobs. Plus, they get $7 million in the deal - Delgado winds up costing $9 million/year less than Manny would have. Delgado's comparable players at age 34 include a few pretty scary ones (#1 is McCovey, who batted .213 at 34). If he ages like Fred McGriff, he'll be worth it.

3. Delgado is worth Petit, although I do think Petit could be a star at Shea. But he's a pitching prospect with only a handful of AAA innings, and those are always risky. And this way they keep Lastings Milledge, as long as they don't go and stupidly trade him for Soriano or something. I think it makes more sense to get a 1B than an OF, given the internal alternatives of Diaz and Milledge (and, yes, Nady, who can step in if Diaz falters).

4. Alfonso Soriano's upside is, he'd be an improvement over Matsui, Cairo and Anderson Hernandez (did you see how overmatched Hernandez looked in September? The kid's not ready just yet). And he's a better idea than Mark Grudzielanek, who I'd seen mentioned as a 2B possibility; the track record of 35-year-old singles/doubles hitters is gruesome, especially ones with little plate discipline. But Minaya should not value Soriano as if he is a star; he'd hit .240 at Shea and not give the team as much offense as, say, Mike Cameron did.

5. Pedro's not the only reason for a win-now attitude; the current labor agreement expires after 2006 (Pinto has some info on how the Mets are now in a position to spend money for 2006). (Also, Floyd and Glavine aren't young, though Glavine's not really a key player at this stage). Nonetheless, I do prefer to build for the long run around Wright and Reyes, particularly given the Braves' stockpiling of young talent.

6. I don't trust Vazquez but he would be an improvement over Benson, whose fastball went on vacation the last six weeks of the season. While Vazquez also finished very badly, I'd rather take the guy who's a power pitcher and appears healthy.

7. I don't see anyone left on the Mets' shopping list worth giving up Milledge for.

8. If you want to play to win in 2006, re-up Piazza for another year. He's still a better player than Ramon Hernandez or Bengie Molina, and probably would cost less $$.

I just don't understand this, as I've said before. The Orioles are offering BJ Ryan $18 million over three years, $6 million per. The Mets have offered Billy Wagner $30 million over three years, $10 million per. Ryan put it all together in August 2003; since 8/1/03, here are their numbers (via Pinto's database, except for the Blown Saves numbers):

And bear in mind that Ryan is 30, Wagner is 34. Both are lefthanded. Both throw hard. Yes, you can make the argument that Wagner's been the better pitcher, but it's awfully close. Ryan strikes more guys out, he gives up half as many homers - a highly significant fact in big games, as Wagner's been known to get touched by the longball in big situations - and he has age and durability on his side. Yes, the save and save % numbers favor Wagner, but Ryan has certainly proven he can hold a closer job with 36 saves in 2005, and the blown saves figure is always uglier when you're working primarily as a setup man. How can you look at these two guys and think Wagner is worth an extra $4 million per year?

You know, I can understand the theory behind trading Mike Cameron to get rid of his salary. With the Mets looking to add salary at other positions, Carlos Beltran holding down center field, and Victor Diaz ready to get a shot playing everyday as an inexpensive right fielder, Cameron at $8 million for 2006 is an expensive luxury item.

But I can't understand the execution - trading him for Xavier Nady - even assuming that some of these scenarios are in the works, unless it's really the case that some other GM (Chuck LaMar?) lusts after Nady and wants him, specifically, in a deal.

It's not that Nady is a terrible player. He's a decent fourth OF who can also play 1B, and he'll be 27 this year so he could take a modest step up. But if he gets regular playing time he's at best a guy who doesn't kill you; he's a lesser player than Benny Agbayani, Darryl Boston, or Danny Heep. I thought maybe at least there was a thought that he'd improve leaving Petco, which is the toughest pitcher's park in baseball, but he batted .258/.408/.314 on the road the past three seasons.

Viewed strictly as a salary dump, I can't see why the Mets couldn't have held out for more than Nady, though. There are plenty of rich teams without a quality CF. The Yankees could certainly use Cameron. Or the Angels, who have Steve F