Category: Baseball 2007

In Which I Lose The Very Brief Momentary Sympathy I Had For The Hated Yankees

$28 million dollars for Roger Clemens. The deal made the most sense of his three suitors; the Red Sox aren’t as desperate for pitching as the Yanks, and the Astros aren’t really in the running for the postseason, plus the Rocket’s buddy Andy Pettitte is back in pinstripes. Clemens is nothing if not an accomplished tease…we see here the full market power of a guy who is, even at 44, one of the few dependably elite starters in the game and was willing to at least give the appearance that he’d be just as happy to sit at home if he didn’t get his dollar. Much as I dislike Clemens, though, you gotta respect him as a pitcher (not until he retires for good will I entertain seriously the “greatest pitcher ever”/”greatest pitcher of the post-1920 era” questions, but he’s got an argument) and it’s good for the game for a guy with his talent to keep going.
So, how much money is Clemens making for what he will give the Yanks? I decided to use some assumptions to project him out. If he returns at the beginning of June, the Yankees will have 111 games left; a healthy Clemens taking roughly a fifth of those would start 22 games. But the Yankees aren’t paying Clemens just for the regular season; a reasonably optimistic assessment says that he could throw anywhere from 1-5 starts in the postseason; I assume 4, since he has started 4 postseason games three times, 5 twice and 3 twice (he averaged 3.4 postseason starts per year from 1999-2005, plus the relief win in the NLDS clincher in 2005). I assume 6 innings pitched per start. For his wins, I looked at Clemens’ wins per start over his years with the Yankees and Astros, including the postseason (126 wins in 265 starts), which projects neatly to 12 wins including October on these assumptions.
Here is the chart showing Clemens’ salary per start, per inning and per win over the course of his career, including the postseason (I used baseball-reference.com salary data except for his rookie year, when I assume he made the MLB minimum of $40,000).

Year GS IP W $ $/Start $/IP $/W
1984 20 133.3 9 $40,000 $2,000.00 $300.00 $4,444.44
1985 15 98.3 7 $140,000 $9,333.33 $1,423.73 $20,000.00
1986 38 288.0 25 $340,000 $8,947.37 $1,180.56 $13,600.00
1987 36 281.7 20 $650,000 $18,055.56 $2,307.70 $32,500.00
1988 36 271.0 18 $1,350,000 $37,500.00 $4,981.55 $75,000.00
1989 35 253.3 17 $2,300,000 $65,714.29 $9,078.96 $135,294.12
1990 33 236.0 21 $2,600,000 $78,787.88 $11,016.95 $123,809.52
1991 35 271.3 18 $2,700,000 $77,142.86 $9,950.87 $150,000.00
1992 32 246.7 18 $4,705,250 $147,039.06 $19,075.39 $261,402.78
1993 29 191.7 11 $4,655,250 $160,525.86 $24,288.35 $423,204.55
1994 24 170.7 9 $5,155,250 $214,802.08 $30,206.66 $572,805.56
1995 24 147.0 10 $5,655,250 $235,635.42 $38,471.09 $565,525.00
1996 34 242.7 10 $5,500,000 $161,764.71 $22,664.90 $550,000.00
1997 34 264.0 21 $8,400,000 $247,058.82 $31,818.18 $400,000.00
1998 33 234.7 20 $8,550,000 $259,090.91 $36,434.76 $427,500.00
1999 33 204.0 16 $8,250,000 $250,000.00 $40,441.18 $515,625.00
2000 36 232.3 15 $6,350,000 $176,388.89 $27,331.46 $423,333.33
2001 38 247.0 21 $10,300,000 $271,052.63 $41,700.40 $490,476.19
2002 30 185.7 13 $10,300,000 $343,333.33 $55,475.96 $792,307.69
2003 37 234.7 19 $10,100,000 $272,972.97 $43,039.89 $531,578.95
2004 37 239.3 20 $5,000,000 $135,135.14 $20,891.39 $250,000.00
2005 35 227.3 15 $18,000,000 $514,285.71 $79,179.00 $1,200,000.00
2006 19 113.3 7 $22,000,022 $1,157,895.89 $194,118.41 $3,142,860.29
2007 26 156.0 12 $28,000,022 $1,076,923.92 $179,487.32 $2,333,335.17

There’s a fair bit of the financial history of the game in that chart, but you can also see that Clemens’ price has risen very sharply the last few years, partly because teams are paying for less than a full season, partly because his credible threat to retire gives him such leverage, and partly because the market for starting pitchers has just gone over the edge.
Something for Johan Santana’s agent to ponder.
UPDATE: It is pointed out in the comments that the last two years are inaccurate because those are annualized salaries that are reduced for the portion of the season that Clemens is off the roster. Which proves once again why I avoid business-of-baseball issues…

Yankee Go Home

Four words, chilling in combination for any Yankee fan: Carl Pavano. Dr. Andrews. James Andrews should immediately cue the Emperor’s March when mentioned.
I know a bunch of teams have been buffeted with injuries this season – the Blue Jays (Ryan, Glaus, Reed Johnson) and A’s (Dan Johnson, Swisher, Harden, Bradley, Kielty) probably worst of all, but the Hated Yankees’ ill luck with the pitching staff is approaching 1987 Mets territory, especially since (like the 87 Mets) they are still hitting the ball well with a strong, healthy offense yet losing early ground to their arch-rivals.

One of These Things Is Not Like The Others

So Rawlings wants your vote for its “All-Time Rawlings Gold Glove Team,” to consist of the best defensive player at each position since Rawlings initiated the Gold Glove awards in 1957, in commemoration of the award’s 50th anniversary. The ballot includes a number of players who I would not regard as defensive stars of historic magnitude – Yaz, Larry Walker, Eric Chavez, JT Snow, Kirby Puckett – but there’s no serious dispute that these were all good defensive players (at least for the earlier parts of their careers).
And then: Derek Jeter. Jeter is popular and sells gloves, which is probably why he is on the list, and yes, he is a smart player and a fine athlete. But his fielding percentages have never been consistently good, and pretty much every other defensive stat/metric ever invented – Range Factors, Zone Ratings, David Pinto’s probabalistic range models, Baseball Prospectus’ defensive stats – shows that Jeter has spent multiple seasons of his prime at or near the bottom of the major leagues in his ability to turn batted balls into outs, which at least in theory is the job of a Gold Glove shortstop. This is like taking votes for an all-time Silver Slugger team and putting Bucky Dent on the ballot. Jeter has shown some signs of improvements in recent years since A-Rod arrived, but try watching a few Yankee games and count the number of balls that go by him that you would expect to be outs; there’s usually at least one a game.
Anyway, my votes:
P – Kaat, though I don’t have strong feelings on this. Seems like there should have been more choices – based on reputation I might have voted for Bobby Shantz, who won the first 4 Gold Gloves at the position. No-windup guys like Shantz and Kaat have a natural advantage over guys like Bob Gibson who have to drop to fielding position from the conclusion of a huge leg kick.
C – This is a really tough call. I think Pudge Rodriguez has a fearsome arm but is overrated as a handler of pitchers, plus he hasn’t had to contend with the havoc on the basepaths that existed in the 70s and 80s. It’s close between him, Bench, Boone and Sundberg; I’m voting for Sundberg but catch me another day and I could answer one of the others.
1B – Keith Hernandez, of course. There’s some good fielders here but Keith played the position in a way that nobody else did.
2B – Mazeroski, hands down.
SS – Ozzie. Another easy one.
3B – Brooks Robinson. If these aren’t the four infielders chosen, something has gone very wrong.
OF – Clemente, Mays, Andruw Jones. Jones is the best I have ever seen, and the other two have reputations that speak for themselves. I’m not sure Mays was any better than Garry Maddox or Devon White, but it’s a close call and aside from Yaz there aren’t any career leftfielders on the list to justify trying to balance. Dwight Evans would crack the top if it weren’t for Clemente.

2007 NL Central EWSL Report

The last of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. As always, the largest and probably most obscure division, the NL Central, goes last – my apologies for lagging on this one. Until last year the NL Central, a division whose star had fallen badly since the McGwire/Sosa/Bagwell heyday, was the only division not to claim a World Championship under the post-1994 divisional alignment. In fact, the division features two teams that have never won it all, one that is nearly a century into its drought, and two others that entered last year having waited 24 and 27 years for a flag.
EWSL is explained here, and you should read that link before commenting on the method; 2007 revisions to the age adjustment discussed here and rookie adjustments here). Bear in mind as always that (1) EWSL is a record of past performance, adjusted by age to give an assessment of the available talent on hand; it is not an individualized projection system; (2) individual EWSL are rounded off but team totals are compiled from the unrounded figures; and (3) as demonstrated here and here in some detail, nearly all teams will win more games than their EWSL total because I’m only rating 23 players per team. Further disclaimers and explanations are in my AL East preview here; my AL Central preview is here, AL West is here, NL East here and NL West here.
World Champion St. Louis Cardinals
Raw EWSL: 229 (76 W)
Adjusted: 240 (80 W)
Age-Adj.: 213 (71 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 24 Yadier Molina 10 12
1B 27 Albert Pujols 37 39
2B 31 Adam Kennedy 15 13
SS 32 David Eckstein 17 14
3B 32 Scott Rolen 19 16
RF 32 Preston Wilson 10 8
CF 37 Jim Edmonds 20 12
LF 26 Chris Duncan* 5 11
C2 35 Gary Bennett 3 2
INF 30 Aaron Miles 10 9
OF 34 Scott Speizio 7 6
12 37 So Taguchi 8 5
13 31 Juan Encarnacion 16 13
SP1 32 Chris Carpenter 18 12
SP2 30 Kip Wells 2 2
SP3 25 Adam Wainwright* 5 11
SP4 25 Anthony Reyes* 2 4
SP5 29 Braden Looper 8 5
RP1 34 Jason Isringhausen 10 8
RP2 25 Brad Thompson# 4 6
RP3 31 Randy Flores 2 2
RP4 38 Russ Springer 4 3
RP5 31 Randy Keisler 1 0

Also on hand: Ryan Franklin, Skip Shumaker, the rehabbing Mark Mulder, and Tyler Johnson. Josh Hancock, of course, was in the bullpen picture until his fatal auto accident Sunday morning; it seems terribly unfair that the Cardinals organization has to go through this again less than a decade after Darryl Kile’s death. Keisler is presently in the rotation due to Carpenter’s injury following an unprecedented two straight seasons for Carpenter without serious injury.
There isn’t really a ton of precedent for whether a World Championship helps offset a 17-game decline in the standings (22 over two years); the closest parallel that comes to mind is the 1998-2001 Yankees. The Yanks dropped 16 games in the standings in 1999, another 11 in 2000, but still won the Series both years. In 2001 they bounced back from 87 to 95 wins and pushed the World Series to a Game 7. Like this team, those Yankees had a lot of guys in their early 30s but their signature star (Jeter) was 27. The Yankees added one high-end starter to their rotation, Mike Mussina, while these Cardinals have overhauled the whole rotation behind Carpenter but with two youngsters, a retread and a converted reliever. Oh, and both teams had Randy Keisler. The other parallel would be the 1908 Cubs, who won the series after a 17-game decline over two years; they bounced back to win 104 games but finish second in 1909 with essentially the same team, and the pennant in 1910, but have never won it all again.
Injury risks with Carpenter and Rolen are a given, but really the big question marks for this team – creating both the upside and downside are (1) that rest of the rotation, including the talented Wainwright and Reyes; (2) whether Edmonds has one last Jim Edmonds year left and (3) whether Chris Duncan, a born DH, can ever play the outfield respectably enough to keep his bat in the lineup (realistically, the Cards would be better off just dealing him to an AL team to whom he would have more value).
Houston Astros
Raw EWSL: 236 (79 W)
Adjusted: 245 (82 W)
Age-Adj.: 207 (69 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 38 Brad Ausmus 10 7
1B 31 Lance Berkman 28 23
2B 41 Craig Biggio 15 8
SS 30 Adam Everett 13 12
3B 31 Morgan Ensberg 19 16
RF 29 Luke Scott* 6 10
CF 27 Chris Burke# 7 9
LF 31 Carlos Lee 22 19
C2 27 Humberto Quintero 1 1
INF 35 Mark Loretta 19 13
OF 30 Jason Lane 9 8
12 31 Mike Lamb 9 7
13 38 Orlando Palmeiro 3 2
SP1 29 Roy Oswalt 20 17
SP2 28 Jason Jennings 10 11
SP3 40 Woody Williams 7 7
SP4 27 Chris Sampson* 2 3
SP5 28 Wandy Rodriguez# 2 2
RP1 30 Brad Lidge 11 10
RP2 29 Dan Wheeler 10 9
RP3 28 Chad Qualls 8 8
RP4 34 Trever Miller 4 3
RP5 38 Rick White 3 2

Jennings and White are presently injured, and Lidge has for the moment at least lost the closer job to Wheeler, though I expect him to reclaim it if he rights himself. Also on hand: Matt Albers (currently in the rotation), Brian Moehler, Dave Borkowski and Hunter Pence, plus the rehabbing Brandon Backe.
The Astros? The Astros. Partly EWSL rates, or overrates, them on depth – the bench is stocked with guys who recently held regular jobs (Loretta, Lane), the pen runs three deep in quality – plus the addition of Carlos Lee. And partly this just isn’t that strong a division. Of course, experience tells us that over a long season, depth matters, especially when you have a 41-year-old second baseman and a rookie right fielder.
Jennings is key – he ought to be better in Houston than in Colorado, but the early injury is another sign that pitchers age in dog years in Coors.
Absent a return from Roger Clemens, I can’t realistically see this team winning the division, but they should plod along around .500 again.
Milwaukee Brewers
Raw EWSL: 201 (67 W)
Adjusted: 219 (73 W)
Age-Adj.: 206 (69 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 31 Johnny Estrada 13 11
1B 23 Prince Fielder* 9 23
2B 24 Rickie Weeks# 8 12
SS 24 JJ Hardy# 5 8
3B 36 Craig Counsell 14 10
RF 29 Kevin Mench 11 10
CF 27 Bill Hall 17 18
LF 32 Geoff Jenkins 17 14
C 37 Damian Miller 10 6
INF 35 Tony Graffanino 11 8
OF 25 Corey Hart* 3 6
12 27 Gabe Gross 6 6
13 24 Tony Gwynn jr.+ 1 4
SP1 28 Ben Sheets 11 11
SP2 28 Chris Capuano 12 12
SP3 32 Jeff Suppan 12 8
SP4 27 David Bush 9 9
SP5 29 Claudio Vargas 6 5
RP1 32 Francisco Cordero 12 8
RP2 29 Derrick Turnbow 7 6
RP3 31 Matt Wise 5 4
RP4 38 Brian Shouse 3 2
RP5 23 Carlos Villanueva* 2 4

Also on hand: Corey Koskie, Laynce Nix and Greg Aquino (all injured; Koskie’s future seems doubtful), Elmer Dessens and Chris Spurling, and, looming at AAA, top pitching prospect Yovanni Gallardo, who has a 42-8 K/BB ratio and just 1 HR allowed in 30 innings this season in the hitter-happy PCL after striking out 188 batters while posting a 1.86 ERA last season.
When asked before the season who should be the favorite in the NL Central, I told people, without conviction, the Brewers. Now that April is behind us, the first place team is, without conviction, the Brewers. Sure, they are tied with the Braves for the NL’s best record and with the Red Sox for the majors’ largest division lead (3.5 games), but they have outscored their opponents just 117-114, for a “Pythagorean” record of 13-12. In other words, they aren’t playing like a team that is gonna take the division out behind the garage and teach it a lesson. That said, the hot start by JJ Hardy, who fizzled and got hurt last season after a promising second half in 2005, is most encouraging, and as they have been doing for a few years now the Crew has scrounged up veterans to plug most of their potential holes. What this team is missing is a really big bat in the outfield; I still don’t buy Bill Hall as a consistent 30 HR threat or Mench as a serious corner outfielder outside of Texas. Also, as has been true for several years, Milwaukee lacks a reputable fifth starter, although Vargas has gotten off to a good start. Presumably it won’t take long for either Vargas or Bush to falter or Sheets to sustain his usual injury and get Gallardo into the rotation.
Chicago Cubs
Raw EWSL: 207 (69 W)
Adjusted: 219 (73 W)
Age-Adj.: 202 (67 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 30 Michael Barrett 15 14
1B 31 Derrek Lee 17 14
2B 32 Mark DeRosa 9 7
SS 27 Cesar Izturis 8 8
3B 29 Aramis Ramirez 20 18
RF 32 Jacque Jones 14 12
CF 31 Alfonso Soriano 21 18
LF 34 Cliff Floyd 15 14
C2 35 Henry Blanco 6 4
INF 24 Ronny Cedeno# 3 5
OF 22 Felix Pie+ 0 4
12 27 Ryan Theriot* 3 6
13 25 Matt Murton# 8 12
SP1 26 Carlos Zambrano 18 18
SP2 27 Rich Hill* 3 5
SP3 31 Ted Lilly 10 8
SP4 28 Jason Marquis 7 8
SP5 30 Wade Miller 3 3
RP1 30 Ryan Dempster 8 7
RP2 27 Neal Cotts 4 4
RP3 33 Bobby Howry 9 6
RP4 28 Michael Wuertz 4 4
RP5 29 Will Ohman# 4 4

Also on hand: Daryle Ward, Scott Eyre, Angel Guzman, and of course the oft-injured Kerry Wood and already-out-for-the-season-again Mark Prior.
Eventually, after two years of significantly underperforming their EWSL, it was inevitable that the Cubs’ expectations would drift down to meet their performance. That should end now that I’m no longer listing Prior and Wood anywhere on their depth chart (not that Wade Miller is Mr. Durability). They have shored up some of their weaknesses by importing pricey 30-somethings, but while Soriano will help them for some time (aside from his outrageous price tag), the long-term future around the core of Zambrano and Ramirez is with Hill, Pie, Murton, and Theriot. And Pie is still a raw youngster while the latter two have much to prove to show that they are more than just useful role players.
Win Shares aren’t out yet, but Rich Hill is probably closing in already on that 5 Win Shares figure. As I have noted several times, Hill just clicked at the start of last August after getting pounded in 2005 and early 2006, and now looks like a coming frontline starter.
Lee is having an odd year that suggests a guy whose wrist is not quite 100% back but compensating well – he’s batting .392 with a staggering 14 doubles in 24 games, but has only gone deep once. The homers will doubtless come, and it’s good to see him back.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Raw EWSL: 154 (51 W)
Adjusted: 182 (61 W)
Age-Adj.: 184 (61 W)
Subjective Adj.: 186 (62 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 26 Ronny Paulino* 7 16
1B 27 Adam LaRoche 13 14
2B 29 Freddy Sanchez# 16 17
SS 29 Jack Wilson 15 13
3B 26 Jose Bautista* 5 10
RF 28 Xavier Nady 9 9
CF 27 Chris Duffy# 5 8
LF 28 Jason Bay 23 24
C2 26 Ryan Doumit# 3 4
INF 26 Jose Castillo 8 9
OF 26 Brad Eldred+ 0 4
12 25 Nate McLouth 1 2
13 28 Humberto Cota 3 3
SP1 24 Zach Duke# 8 10
SP2 25 Ian Snell# 4 6
SP3 24 Tom Gorzelanny* 2 3
SP4 25 Paul Maholm# 5 7
SP5 29 Tony Armas 3 2
RP1 35 Salomon Torres 10 6
RP2 23 Matt Capps* 4 7
RP3 32 Damaso Marte 5 3
RP4 28 John Grabow 3 3
RP5 29 Shawn Chacon 4 4

I try to avoid the subjective adjustments with pitchers, who are inherently unstable when projected out to higher innings totals, but Gorzelanny, like Rich Hill, should easily surpass that 3 WS total. I did give a 2-WS subjective bump from 6 to 8 to Duffy to reflect increased playing time. I could have listed Jonah Bayliss or John Wasdin instead of Chacon, but Chacon is a little more estaablished than Bayliss and the Pirates already list a lot of unproven young pitchers.
Pittsburgh has little to be excited about beyond Bay on the offensive side, though an optimist would say that the next few years should be solid ones for LaRoche, Sanchez and Paulino. What we will know a lot better after this season is whether the Pirates have any real gems among their young arms – Duke, Snell and Gorzelanny have all given flashes (even Maholm, in late 05), and all four are 24 or 25, plus Capps is 23 – there ought to turn out to be somebody there with more upside than the last few generations of young Pirate hurlers, which gave us only Jason Schmidt and Denny Neagle as front-line starters (the jury is still out on Oliver Perez), and neither of those guys originally came out of their system. You’d like to see someone here better than the Kris Bensons and Kip Wellses of the world. Certainly the Pirates’ fans deserve better.
Cincinnati Reds
Raw EWSL: 191 (64 W)
Adjusted: 201 (67 W)
Age-Adj.: 180 (60 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 30 Dave Ross 8 7
1B 37 Scott Hatteberg 13 8
2B 26 Brandon Phillips 7 8
SS 30 Alex Gonzalez 12 11
3B 24 Edwin Encarnacion# 8 13
RF 37 Ken Griffey 14 8
CF 31 Ryan Freel 12 10
LF 27 Adam Dunn 23 24
C2 31 Javier Valentin 6 5
INF 41 Jeff Conine 11 6
OF 26 Josh Hamilton+ 0 4
12 35 Juan Castro 6 4
13 28 Norris Hopper+ 1 4
SP1 29 Aaron Harang 13 12
SP2 30 Bronson Arroyo 15 13
SP3 28 Kyle Lohse 6 7
SP4 31 Eric Milton 5 4
SP5 27 Matt Belisle# 3 3
RP1 37 David Weathers 9 8
RP2 26 Todd Coffey# 6 7
RP3 40 Mike Stanton 6 6
RP4 28 Kirk Saarloos 6 7
RP5 30 Victor Santos 2 2

Others on hand include Chad Moeller, Rheal Cormier, Bill Bray, Joe Coutlangus, the injured Eddie Guardado and Gary Majewski, and AAA flamethrower Homer Bailey, who like Gallardo is pitching well and likely to arrive this season.
The Reds, as so often has been true in recent years, seem less than the sum of their parts. Some of that is lack of pitching depth (though Harang and Arroyo are the best 1-2 punch they have had since the days of Jose Rijo). Some is that the parts are less than they seem – guys who are no longer the stars they were (Griffey), guys who are stuck in reverse (Dunn) or have never lived up to promise (Milton) or have yet to prove they can do it twice (Phillips, Encarnacion, Ross). They don’t look like an awful team, though probably between Cincy, the Cubs, the Astros and the Pirates somebody will run off the rails.
You know, the first time I saw the name “Norris Hopper,” before I knew anything else about him – position, skills, track record – I thought “speedy outfielder.” Some guys really are exactly who they sound like.

Park Violation

So El Duque heads for the DL (disappointing, but this happens with him) and Chan Ho Park comes up. Park has a 7.29 ERA at AAA New Orleans and has allowed 6 home runs in 21 innings. What is odd is bringing him up when teammate Jorge Sosa, also an experienced major league starter of at best uneven recent accomplishments, has a 1.13 ERA there and a 29/4 K/BB ratio. I mean, I don’t trust either of them but for a short-term assignment I’d rather pick the hot hand.
UPDATE: Commenters point out that Sosa just pitched and thus the choice of Park is dictated by availability. Of course, if Park gets bombed the Mets may need to rethink their choice if El Duque is out a while.

Hunter Becomes Hunted

In light of the Torii Hunter situation, I think what MLB needs to do is retroactively clarify the rule to apply a lower punishment for minor violations. The current punishment is disproportionate to these facts – you can’t suspend Hunter for three years. At the same time, if the rule is on the books you have to enforce it, and can’t be selective about it. And while the punishment seems especially draconian for a guy who apparently didn’t even know of the rule (I’d never heard of it before), I’m not at all comfortable writing into a prophylactic rule of this nature an “out” for guys who claim they didn’t know.
This is off topic but this is another reason I’ve long thought the campaign finance laws were a farce. Back in the 90s, both Newt Gingrich and Al Gore (and they weren’t the only ones, witness Tom DeLay’s legal difficulties) got in trouble for rather technical campaign finance violations. In both cases their supporters argued that (1) such technical violations couldn’t possibly be grounds for prosecuting such important elected officials, (2) they could not have known they were breaking the rule, there was no controlling legal authority, and (3) those laws hadn’t been enforced in that way in the past (in Gore’s case an 1886 statute nobody’d ever been prosecuted under). Regardless of the merits of the two cases, it seemed to me then and still does that if the laws are vague or technical enough, or the penalties disproportionate enough, that you would blanch at throwing an important person you support in the slammer for breaking them, then they have no business on the books. The same goes here – if you don’t think Torii Hunter should be suspended for three years over a couple cases of champagne, change the rule.
PS, Hunter was making good on something he had said last year – did MLB know then, and if so why didn’t anyone warn him?

Please Put Away Your Tickets

The Mike Pelfrey Bandwagon is not leaving the garage for some time.
Pelfrey has good velocity and he’s generally around the strike zone, but until he improves his command within that area and develops a reliable strikeout pitch, he’s still a ways from being a dependable major league pitcher. I’m not saying the Mets should pull the plug just yet; Pelfrey is still a significant talent, he’s got learning he needs to do sooner or later, and the alternative options are no better.

Happy Endy

You know, I’m not the biggest fan of the Endy Chavez type of ballplayer, the guy who doesn’t hit for much power, doesn’t draw many walks, doesn’t consistently hit .300, and is a good but not great glove man and base thief. Players like that don’t make good regulars, and managers often seem tempted to give them too much playing time.
That said, it’s almost impossible to dislike Chavez himself, and a guy like this can be a very valuable fourth outfielder, with his ability to cover all three outfield positions defensively and play small ball in the late innings of close games. Last night we saw the classic example of that – I have been watching baseball all my life and can’t ever remember seeing a guy get a walk-off RBI by bunting with two outs.
I was thinking this morning that the Mets have actually had a fair number of Chavez-like fourth outfielders in recent years – Mookie (from 1985 onward), Darryl Boston, Joe Orsulak, Timo Perez, Darryl Hamilton. Ryan McConnell is thinking along similar lines, asking if Endy is the best role player in Mets history.

Being Manny

Fascinating profile of Manny Ramirez in the New Yorker, built – predictably enough – around the unknowability of Manny. There’s a lot in here I had not read before, from the fact that Manny doesn’t keep track of the count except to know when there are two strikes and named his first two sons by different women Manny Jr. to what Dan Duquette is doing now (running the Israel Baseball League). David Ortiz also doesn’t exactly mince words about Manny. Manny clearly works extremely hard, and follows one of the cardinal rules of baseball eccentrics, which is to tell different stories to different reporters when he speaks at all. The piece does leave out the time Manny cost the Red Sox Indians the DH for a game by failing to read the lineup card, resulting in Charles Nagy having to bat seventh.
Ben McGrath writes that Boston writers “cover baseball the way affairs of state are covered in Washington,” which I would amend to say that the Boston sports media is probably best described as like the political media in a town where all the elected officials belong to one party and all the writers to the other one.

4/19/07 Quick Links

*There’s a fair number of debates from the Virginia Tech shooting I don’t have time to weigh in on now (there’s the gun control issue; Glenn Reynolds aptly summarizes the case for less of it here, there’s the university’s reaction time, and there’s the appalling spectacle of NBC News broadcasting the killer’s videotape), though it seems the most important question is why it was so hard to get the killer out of circulation or at the very least on a list of people who should not be permitted to buy firearms, when he was giving off every sign of being a potential danger to himself and others and everyone around him saw those signs and several people tried to do something about it.
In all the horror I did find one moment of a little levity from this quote:

Briettney said her friend, who was shot in the knee, buttocks and shoulder, was expected to be all right.
“The one day he goes to class, he gets shot three times!”

*If you were wondering what was so gosh-darn important about holding that Rutgers press conference: the Rutgers coach now has a book deal.
*All three of my fantasy baseball teams have Felix Hernandez. This is not good news for any of them. Perhaps letting him throw a 111-pitch complete game on a cold April night in Fenway in his last start was not such a good idea.
*I definitely did not see a Mark Buehrle no-hitter coming. The past four years, Buehrle has finished second, second, first and first in the AL in hits allowed.
*You can read my reactions to the partial-birth abortion decision here, here and here. This is also a good summary of the concurrence (H/t).
*Please, wear your seatbelts.

Good Start

Top of the sixth in Florida.
Mets, 8 runs, all charged to Dontrelle Willis, who was left in to finish the 5th even after allowing the last two runs.
Marlins, 0 hits.
UPDATE: John Maine pitches the sixth inning, Marlins’ hit total does not change. Maine has thrown 85 pitches.
UPDATE: Miguel Cabrera leads off the seventh with a hit. 45 years later, the Mets still have never had a no-hitter.

Prediction

Mark my words, before this season is out, Henry Owens will be the Marlins’ closer. Owens has tough stuff and is off to a fine start, while Florida’s imported closer, Jorge Julio, has been lit up like a Roman candle in the early going (19.06 ERA after this evening’s shellacking). I give Julio until August at the lastest, but if he doesn’t get untracked we could be talking May, not August.

2007 NL West EWSL Report

The fifth of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. EWSL is explained here, and you should read that link before commenting on the method; 2007 revisions to the age adjustment discussed here and rookie adjustments here). Bear in mind as always that (1) EWSL is a record of past performance, adjusted by age to give an assessment of the available talent on hand; it is not an individualized projection system; (2) individual EWSL are rounded off but team totals are compiled from the unrounded figures; and (3) as demonstrated here and here in some detail, nearly all teams will win more games than their EWSL total because I’m only rating 23 players per team. Further disclaimers and explanations are in my AL East preview here; my AL Central preview is here, AL West is here, and NL East here.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Raw EWSL: 220 (73 W)
Adjusted: 252 (84 W)
Age-Adj.: 232 (77 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 24 Russell Martin* 7 18
1B 33 Nomar Garciaparra 12 11
2B 39 Jeff Kent 22 18
SS 29 Rafael Furcal 26 23
3B 26 Wilson Betemit# 7 9
RF 25 Andre Ethier* 6 14
CF 29 Juan Pierre 16 15
LF 39 Luis Gonzalez 14 11
C2 35 Mike Lieberthal 8 6
INF 33 Marlon Anderson 6 5
OF 34 Brady Clark 14 12
12 36 Olmedo Saenz 8 6
13 22 Matt Kemp* 2 7
SP1 34 Jason Schmidt 14 10
SP2 34 Derek Lowe 12 9
SP3 29 Brad Penny 10 9
SP4 30 Randy Wolf 3 3
SP5 34 Brett Tomko 7 5
RP1 37 Takashi Saito* 9 17
RP2 23 Jonathan Broxton* 5 9
RP3 30 Joe Beimel 4 3
RP4 33 Mark Hendrickson 7 5
RP5 22 Chad Billingsley* 3 7

Also in the mix: Hong-chih Kuo, if he can get healthy, should be in there with Billingsley and the veteran Hendrickson to step into the rotation. Prospect Andy LaRoche is close to ready at 3B. Also Jason Repko, Yhency Brazoban, Tim Hamulack, and Ramon Martinez.
The Dodgers are unlikely to score as many runs as last season without JD Drew and Kenny Lofton’s contributions (Gonzalez is nearing the end of the line, and Juan Pierre in his prime is still a poor offensive substitute for Lofton even at his advanced age, though he will compensate a bit with his glove for Lofton’s terrible defense in CF), so much will ride on the health of veterans Garciaparra and Kent and the productivity of last year’s booming rookie class (Ethier, Martin, Kemp, James Loney, as well as Billingsley, Kuo, Saito and Broxton on the pitching staff). On the other hand, the bench is deep. Dodgers are the clear though not heavy favorites in the West.
San Diego Padres
Raw EWSL: 198 (66 W)
Adjusted: 221 (74 W)
Age-Adj.: 208 (69 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 25 Josh Bard 6 5
1B 25 Adrian Gonzalez# 9 13
2B 29 Marcus Giles 19 17
SS 27 Khalil Greene 15 16
3B 25 Kevin Kouzmanoff+ 1 11
RF 36 Brian Giles 25 19
CF 34 Mike Cameron 19 18
LF 30 Termel Sledge 3 3
C2 26 Rob Bowen* 1 2
INF 31 Russell Branyan 7 6
OF 33 Jose Cruz Jr. 8 7
12 34 Geoff Blum 6 5
13 26 Paul McAnulty+ 1 4
SP1 26 Jake Peavy 14 14
SP2 28 Chris Young 10 10
SP3 41 Greg Maddux 12 11
SP4 27 Clay Hensley# 7 8
SP5 44 David Wells 7 7
RP1 39 Trevor Hoffman 12 10
RP2 30 Scott Linebrink 9 8
RP3 24 Cla Meredith* 5 9
RP4 29 Heath Bell 1 1
RP5 40 Doug Brocail 2 2

The Padres have their own age issues with Brian Giles, Cameron, Maddux and Hoffman. Obviously the bullpen is deep and off to a flying start, as among other things we will see whether Heath Bell finally makes good on his abilities. I would expect Cruz to take Sledge’s job at some point. The key guys on this team may be Marcus Giles and the slugging Kouzmanoff, who have the ability to create a powerful offensive infield, especially if San Diego can squeeze a little more out of the 27-year-old Greene. I expect Peavy to rebound strongly from 2006; nothing in his numbers last season reflected a real falloff in ability, just a failure to perform to standards.
Colorado Rockies
Raw EWSL: 175 (58 W)
Adjusted: 206 (69 W)
Age-Adj.: 198 (66 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 24 Chris Iannetta+ 1 11
1B 33 Todd Helton 24 21
2B 31 Kaz Matsui 8 6
SS 22 Troy Tulowitzki+ 1 11
3B 27 Garrett Atkins# 19 20
RF 28 Brad Hawpe 10 11
CF 25 Willy Taveras# 13 16
LF 27 Matt Holliday 17 18
C2 28 Yorvit Torrealba 5 5
INF 32 Jamey Carroll 11 9
OF 42 Steve Finley 10 5
12 36 John Mabry 4 3
13 26 Jeff Baker* 2 3
SP1 26 Jeff Francis 9 9
SP2 28 Aaron Cook 9 9
SP3 31 Rodrigo Lopez 7 6
SP4 25 Jason Hirsh* 0 0
SP5 30 Josh Fogg 5 4
RP1 31 Brain Fuentes 11 9
RP2 34 LaTroy Hawkins 6 4
RP3 28 Byung Hyun Kim 5 5
RP4 28 Jeremy Affeldt 3 3
RP5 25 Ramon Ramirez* 4 8

Also on hand: Cory Sullivan, Denny Bautista, Tom Martin, Taylor Buchholz. I suspect that Colorado will have no better luck with Affeldt and Bautista than the Royals did; those guys need to get attention from someplace that isn’t one of the two worst franchises in baseball to pitch for.
No, I don’t actually expect Colorado to finish ahead of Arizona, but if rookies Ianetta and Tulowitzki live up to their projections from minor league success, the Rockies will have a very deep lineup; playing in Colorado you really need to lead the league in runs scored to finish much above .500, but this team could do that. The only offensive holes should be Matsui (who is hurt already, what a surprise) and Taveras. The rotation is also not as bad as some Colorado staffs of the past, though there’s nobody here you would be happy to start in a posteason game.
The deal that was built around Jason Jennings for Taveras is an interesting one, philosophically. Jennings was the Rockies’ ace, and he’s pitched well already with the Astros, but is also missing time this week with elbow tendinitis, lending credence to the idea that Coors ages pitchers in dog years. Taveras is basically a poor man’s Juan Pierre, one of the fastest men in the game brought in almost solely for the value his glove will bring in Coors’ cavernous center field. This deal could be a disaster, or it could work if you think that Jennings is damaged goods or that the value of good center field defense in Coors (given how many potential extra base hits are put into play) is a core survival issue for the team.
If you believe the latter, however, why would you employ a 42-year-old Steve Finley?
Arizona Diamondbacks
Raw EWSL: 146 (49 W)
Adjusted: 177 (59 W)
Age-Adj.: 173 (58 W)
Subjective Adj.: 184 (61 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 26 Chris Snyder 5 6
1B 25 Conor Jackson* 6 15
2B 29 Orlando Hudson 18 16
SS 24 Stephen Drew* 3 11
3B 27 Chad Tracy 15 16
RF 31 Eric Byrnes 13 11
CF 23 Chris Young+ 1 11
LF 27 Scott Hairston 1 9
C2 23 Miguel Montero+ 0 4
INF 35 Tony Clark 7 5
OF 24 Carlos Quentin* 3 6
12 24 Alberto Callaspo+ 1 4
13 30 Robby Hammock 1 0
SP1 28 Brandon Webb 18 18
SP2 43 Randy Johnson 13 13
SP3 32 Livan Hernandez 13 9
SP4 31 Doug Davis 10 8
SP5 24 Edgar Gonzalez 2 2
RP1 27 Jose Valverde 7 6
RP2 27 Brandon Lyon 3 3
RP3 27 Brandon Medders# 5 5
RP4 28 Juan Cruz 4 4
RP5 25 Tony Pena* 1 1

Micah Owings has pitched well in the rotation so far, and also on hand are JD Durbin and Brian Barden. I gave subjective bumps up for Drew (from 8 to 11) and Hairston (from 1 to 9) to reflect increased playing time/opportunity.
EWSL punishes the D-Backs for the lack of star power in their lineup (my guess is that Chad Tracy has an up year this year with the bat, Hudson and Byrnes have down ones), a lack of depth in proven quality pitchers, and the heavy mileage on Johnson, Hernandez and Davis. Hairston is something of a wild card but once healthy, Quentin will get playing time from someone.
San Francisco Giants
Raw EWSL: 215 (72 W)
Adjusted: 222 (74 W)
Age-Adj.: 173 (58 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 32 Ben Molina 12 10
1B 35 Rich Aurilia 14 9
2B 35 Ray Durham 18 12
SS 40 Omar Vizquel 20 11
3B 32 Pedro Feliz 11 10
RF 33 Randy Winn 17 15
CF 35 Dave Roberts 16 11
LF 42 Barry Bonds 22 12
C2 28 Eliezer Alfonzo* 3 2
INF 36 Ryan Klesko 9 7
OF 37 Mark Sweeney 7 4
12 28 Lance Niekro# 4 4
13 25 Kevin Frandsen* 0 0
SP1 29 Barry Zito 15 13
SP2 22 Matt Cain# 7 10
SP3 26 Noah Lowry 10 10
SP4 32 Matt Morris 8 6
SP5 33 Russ Ortiz 2 2
RP1 34 Armando Benitez 7 5
RP2 34 Steve Kline 5 3
RP3 26 Kevin Corriea 4 4
RP4 28 Vinnie Chulk 3 3
RP5 24 Jonathan Sanchez* 1 2

Tod Linden is also on hand at present, and star pitching prospect Tim Licencum should make his presence known later. The Giants’ rebuilding/youth movement is well under way in their rotation – Cain, Lowry, and Licencum should provide plenty of upside in years to come, with Zito (still under 30 and signed for 7 years) anchoring the staff. I expect a good year from Zito, with the switch of leagues probably making 2007 the best season of his outrageous contract.
Beyond the rotation, evidence of the rest of the Giants’ roster can be obtained from archaeologists – I mean, look at the age of their double play combination and their outfield. In fact, that age alone makes me more skeptical about Zito and the other starters (although last year’s Giants barely missed second in the NL in defensive efficiency on balls in play, and thus far this season they are not too far from last year’s pace, albeit well behind the league). There is simply no sign that San Francisco has even started the rebuilding job in the lineup, which is why it should be years before they can field a strong contender. The quality of their young pitchers contrasted with the deperate state of their lineup makes the decision to commit all those resoruces to Zito all the more bizarre.
The best they can hope for is a solid showing in a tight division where nobody wins 90 games. And, as usual in recent years, if Bonds goes down the Giants plunge deep into the cellar.
Check out the prior EWSL reports for the NL West: 2004, 2005, 2006.

HGH Doesn’t Work?

I have long been skeptical of people who say steroids don’t help in baseball; as I have previously explained, for that to be true you have to show either that (1) steroids don’t help you get stronger or (2) strength doesn’t help you as a baseball player. I don’t buy either one.
JC Bradbury, however, has looked closely at the issue and says that human growth hormone (HGH) actually doesn’t help you get stronger.

Low Scoring

Scoring is way down thus far this season:

Lg Year R/G ERA Avg Slg OBP HR/9 BB/9 K/9
NL 2007 3.89 3.49 .247 .383 .320 0.79 3.42 6.55
NL 2006 4.76 4.49 .265 .427 .334 1.12 3.39 6.71
AL 2007 4.33 4.03 .251 .393 .322 0.89 3.36 6.56
AL 2006 4.97 4.56 .275 .437 .339 1.13 3.19 6.44

For those of you who are picky about such things, the 2006 figures for Avg/Slg/OBP are batting figures, the HR/BB/K numbers are pitching figures. The distinction is irrelevant for 2007 stats since there have been no interleague games yet.
There are a number of reasons why scoring tends to be low quite this early, the main ones being (1) cold weather, (2) extra days off means more games started by #1 starters and few yet by #5 starters, and (3) injuries and fatigue as the season progresses tend to hit pitchers harder than hitters. It’s been an unusually cold April, so that is probably a major reason why.
Still, if the trend continues a few more weeks it may bear watching. Note that both batting average in general and home runs in particular are down very sharply, while K and BB rates are largely unchanged.
UPDATE: I see Pinto had the same thought this morning, and compares apples to apples with the scoring through this point last season.

Today’s Trivia Quizzes

1. Who holds the record for most strikeouts (as a batter) while winning the MVP award?
2. Even more endangered these days than the 300-game winner is the 200-game loser. Tom Glavine needs 8 more losses to reach 200; name the only other four pitchers to enter the league since 1970 to lose 200 or more games.
UPDATE: By the way, last night’s victory raises Glavine to precisely 100 games over .500 for his career (292-192), and 1 game over for his Mets career (50-49).

Continue reading Today’s Trivia Quizzes

Early Yet

But in his matchup with Dice Matsuzaka, Felix Hernandez has thrown five innings against the Red Sox. And the Red Sox do not have a hit.
I should add that he has also not allowed a run, unlike Oliver Perez who left tonight’s game having allowed three runs on one hit – and 7 walks.
UPDATE: Seeing as how I have King Felix on all three of my fantasy teams, I’m not exactly excited by the possibility of him trying to throw a complete game on a cold night in April in Boston. Then again, he is pitching on 8 days’ rest due to the snowstorms in Cleveland. But say this much, Matsuzaka’s first two starts have produiced plenty of drama in the matchups.
UPDATE: Six innings. Cerrone must be envious. Somewhere, Bob Murphy is too.
UPDATE: Felix gets Youkilis, Ortiz and Manny up next in the seventh. This is the big test.
UPDATE: He gets Ortiz and Manny. Wow. Felix has thrown 85 pitches, so he should at least go 8.
UPDATE: JD Drew breaks it up to lead off the 8th.
UPDATE: Hernandez finishes with a 1-hit shutout, throwing 111 pitches and finishing by striking out Youkilis with Ortiz on deck.

Don’t Believe All The Hype

Royals super-prospect Alex Gordon is hitting .050.
Will Gordon be a great player? Quite possibly. A good one? Quite likely. Will he be the AL Rookie of the Year? He’s still as likely as anybody.
For all that, a reminder that jumping from AA to the big leagues isn’t a seamless transition. Gordon should still have a fine year on the way to a fine career, and fortunately for him the Royals are likely to be patient with him and not bail after a bad week or two, but it’s not really that unlikely that he will be hitting .225 at the All-Star Break, either; it happens to the best of rookies. (Here’s just one example that pops to mind of a great hitter who had some early struggles in a fine rookie season).

No Dice

The Hated Yankees can’t be happy with their starting pitching thus far – five games into the season, they have yet to have a starter throw more than 5 innings or allow fewer than 4 runs, and against Tampa and Baltimore, no less. The most disturbing performance had to be Saturday’s outing by the new Japanese import, Kei Igawa, getting tagged for 7 runs by the Orioles.
On the other hand, Yankee fans and Yankee haters alike will have to stretch long and hard after Saturday’s come-from-behind, walk-off grand slam by A-Rod to claim that he never comes through in the clutch. I think I may have run these numbers before, but A-Rod has played 35 career postseason games, and entering the 9th inning of the 23d of those games (Game Four of the 2004 ALCS), his career postseason line was .375/.670/.421 with a 162-game pace for 120 Runs, 113 RBI and 21 SB. His “choke” tag is based almost entirely on the 44 bad at bats that followed.

Plodsednik

Since late July 2005, only four major league players have been caught stealing more than 17 times. This in and of itself is testimony to the startling conservatism of major league baserunners these days – the stolen base really is a dying art – but of those four, three have produced prime time steals numbers to offset the cost of running – Jose Reyes (93 SB, 26 CS, 78.1% success rate), Juan Pierre (86 SB, 29 CS, 74.8% success rate), and Chone Figgins (82 SB, 27 CS, 75.2% success rate). The game’s other elite base thief, Carl Crawford, has gone 71-13 (84.5%) in that stretch.
That leaves us the fourth player: Scott Podsednik. Podsednik has been caught 35 times to only 50 steals, a 58.8% success rate, including twice in three attempts this season. For any other player, you’d say he should just stop running at that point – but running is nearly Podsednik’s whole value, with a .268/.354/.333 batting/slugging/OBP line over that time period while playing left field. If he doesn’t shape up on the bases very soon, it may be high time for the White Sox to just stop playing him.

Blame-Rod and the Rays

The Yankees lose their first game of the season, and as day follows night, A-Rod’s picture appears on the back page of the Daily News and the NY Post. Note that two games into the season, A-Rod has singled, stolen second and scored the winning run in the late innings of a tie game only once.
Meanwhile, Elijah Dukes – initially thought to be up just to spot the Devil Rays outfield until Rocco Baldelli healed – homered again, which will undoubtedly increase the pressure and temptation to keep Tampa’s second stud outfield prospect in the majors along with Delmon Young and the fully-matured-to-stardom Carl Crawford. Baldelli is too good to go the Wally Pipp route, but this creates an interesting dilemma for Tampa on two levels. First, do you turn Baldelli into a DH? He’s a solid glove man but with his health record that may be a necessity. Second, what about Jonny Gomes, who despite last season’s injury-marred disaster has as much power and patience as anyone in the Tampa lineup? Do you try to turn Gomes or Baldelli into a first baseman to replace Ty Wigginton, who is a useful sub but not enough of a hittter to hold an everyday job at first? Probably the best bet would be to keep Gomes as the everyday DH for now and hope you can trade him, or maybe deal Baldelli for a serious first baseman.
(Amusing note: having Ben Zobrist on my fantasy team, I was stunned to see he stole two bases yesterday with Andy Pettitte on the mound, but I checked the play-by-play and sure enough one was a steal of third and the other was immediately after Pettitte left the game).

Broom, Broom, Broom

You can’t get even in April for a loss in the postseason, but it was nonetheless satisfying to see the Mets dismember the defending World Champion Cardinals this week. It was doubly amusing (given how the World Series played out) to see them undone in significant part by appalling outfield defense (surprisingly, mostly not involving DH Chris Duncan). And the Mets have showcased some solid starting pitching and really tremendous work up the middle by Reyes, Valentin and (of course) Beltran.
It’s a long season, but 3-0 and a 2.5 game lead over the Phillies is a good start.

2007 NL East EWSL Report

The fourth of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. EWSL is explained here, and you should read that link before commenting on the method; 2007 revisions to the age adjustment discussed here and rookie adjustments here). Bear in mind as always that (1) EWSL is a record of past performance, adjusted by age to give an assessment of the available talent on hand; it is not an individualized projection system; (2) individual EWSL are rounded off but team totals are compiled from the unrounded figures; and (3) as demonstrated here and here in some detail, nearly all teams will win more games than their EWSL total because I’m only rating 23 players per team. Further disclaimers and explanations are in my AL East preview here; my AL Central preview is here, AL West is here.
New York Mets
Raw EWSL: 243 (81 W)
Adjusted: 251 (84 W)
Age-Adj.: 226 (75 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 35 Paul LoDuca 15 11
1B 35 Carlos Delgado 24 16
2B 37 Jose Valentin 11 6
SS 24 Jose Reyes 20 25
3B 24 David Wright 25 32
RF 34 Shawn Green 14 13
CF 30 Carlos Beltran 29 27
LF 40 Moises Alou 17 9
C2 31 Ramon Castro 3 3
INF 37 Damion Easley 7 4
OF 29 Endy Chavez 9 8
12 22 Lastings Milledge* 2 9
13 48 Julio Franco 6 3
SP1 41 Tom Glavine 14 13
SP2 41 Orlando Hernandez 7 6
SP3 35 John Maine# 3 4
SP4 25 Oliver Perez 4 4
SP5 23 Mike Pelfrey+ 0 5
RP1 35 Billy Wagner 14 9
RP2 28 Aaron Heilman 7 8
RP3 30 Pedro Feliciano 4 4
RP4 23 Ambiorix Burgos# 3 3
RP5 33 Scott Schoeneweis 6 4

I’ve been super-conservative with the Mets projections, leaving Pedro Martinez, Duaner Sanchez, Guillermo Mota and Juan Padilla entirely out of the picture. Also on hand is sidearming rookie ROOGY Joe Smith to replace Chad Bradford, plus David Newhan, Anderson Hernandez and an unusual number of guys with major league track records or who are as major league ready as they will ever be in the wings: Jorge Sosa, Aaron Sele, Chan Ho Park, Jon Adkins, Dave Williams, Jason Vargas, Anderson Hernandez, and Ben Johnson (Alay Soler, who looked to be in the same boat, was cut in the spring and has been snapped up by the Pirates).
The Mets should justifiably be the favorites this year, despite the fact that numerous key players are unlikely to repeat last season (especially Lo Duca, Chavez, Valentin and Feliciano). They still have the young core of Wright and Reyes, they still have Beltran and Delgado, and the pitching staff, if healthy, should be adequate despite the palpable absence of a legitimate #1 starter.
Philadelphia Phillies
Raw EWSL: 212 (71 W)
Adjusted: 234 (78 W)
Age-Adj.: 226 (75 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 31 Rod Barajas 9 7
1B 27 Ryan Howard# 18 23
2B 28 Chase Utley 23 24
SS 28 Jimmy Rollins 24 25
3B 31 Wes Helms 8 6
RF 26 Shane Victorino* 6 13
CF 29 Aaron Rowand 13 12
LF 30 Pat Burrell 18 17
C2 28 Carlos Ruiz* 1 2
INF 31 Abraham Nunez 6 5
OF 28 Jayson Werth 5 5
12 34 Chris Coste* 4 7
13 24 Michael Bourn+ 0 4
SP1 26 Brett Myers 11 11
SP2 23 Cole Hamels* 4 8
SP3 31 Freddy Garcia 15 13
SP4 44 Jamie Moyer 10 10
SP5 29 Adam Eaton 5 4
RP1 39 Tom Gordon 11 9
RP2 26 Ryan Madson 6 6
RP3 30 Geoff Geary 6 5
RP4 35 Antonio Alfonseca 2 1
RP5 37 Jon Lieber 9 8

Also on hand on the pitching side: Fabio Castro, Clay Condrey, and at AAA Scott Mathieson.
It’s worth noting here that Howard, Utley and Rollins, the Phillies’ core offensive players, are (respectively) three, four and four years older than David Wright, Jose Reyes and Miguel Cabrera, who in turn are a year older than Brian McCann and Hanley Ramirez, who in turn are a year older than Ryan Zimmerman (Burrell is two years older than Utley and Rollins). Granted, the key pitchers (Hamels and Myers) are younger than that, but this is not an up-and-coming team relative to the rest of the division; their future is now.
That said, the present looks solid – Hamels and Myers give them the chance to have the best 1-2 pitching punch in the division, the talent on hand is mostly prime-age, and the rotation and lineup have soft spots but no glaring holes. The Phils would be division favorites but for the disastrous Bobby Abreu deal, which leaves them with a significantly weaker outfield than the Mets or Braves, both of whom have an anchoring superstar in center. Even without Abreu, they should give the Mets a serious rival.
Florida Marlins
Raw EWSL: 145 (48 W)
Adjusted: 211 (70 W)
Age-Adj.: 239 (80 W)
Subjective Adj.: 224 (75 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 28 Miguel Olivo 10 10
1B 26 Mike Jacobs# 8 10
2B 27 Dan Uggla* 12 25
SS 23 Hanley Ramirez* 13 36
3B 24 Miguel Cabrera 29 37
RF 23 Jeremy Hermida* 4 9
CF 22 Alejandro de Aza+ 0 11
LF 28 Josh Willingham* 7 15
C2 31 Matt Treanor 3 3
INF 34 Aaron Boone 7 6
OF 28 Joe Borchard 2 2
12 29 Alfredo Amezaga 3 2
13 30 Alex Sanchez 2 2
SP1 25 Dontrelle Willis 16 18
SP2 23 Anibal Sanchez* 5 10
SP3 23 Scott Olsen* 5 10
SP4 24 Ricky Nolasco* 3 5
SP5 22 Josh Johnson* 6 12
RP1 28 Jorge Julio 5 5
RP2 24 Taylor Tankersley* 3 5
RP3 29 Kevin Gregg 4 3
RP4 23 Randy Messenger# 1 1
RP5 26 Sergio Mitre 1 1

Also on hand: Cody Ross, Eric Reed, Reggie Abercrombie, Henry Owens, and Nate Field. Jorge Julio has solved the question of who would claim the Marlin closer job, but don’t be surprised to see Owens grab a significant late-inning role – the Mets gave up on him due to a single bad outing last season, but Owens has some nasty stuff.
I’m applying the subjective adjustments here downward – Josh Johnson down to 9 WS to reflect his injury status, Ramirez to 27 and Uggla to 22 to reflect the problem I identified with Melky Cabrera in the Yankees comment of over-projecting improvement based upon one single season of play. In Uggla’s case, I just don’t think he can improve on last season; Ramirez may really be a 36-WS player someday but I don’t see him taking that dramatic a step forward all at once. Without those adjustments, this would be listed as the first-place team.
Two main questions linger about the Marlins, those being the pitching staff and the outfield. On the former, Dontrelle Willis will be solid, but we don’t know if he will return to his elite status from 2005, and almost everyone else in the rotation is still a seriously unknown quantity. As to the latter, Willingham is dependable but we don’t know what direction the injured Jeremy Hermida will go in (Hermida has major offensive talent but hasn’t hit the ball with authority in the bigs yet) or what to make of de Aza, the latest center field experiment (the presence of Alex Sanchez should tell you all you need to know about the Marlins’ own uncertainty at that position).
My guess is that this is the year that Cabrera becomes a really big time 40+ home run hitter.
Atlanta Braves
Raw EWSL: 182 (61 W)
Adjusted: 200 (67 W)
Age-Adj.: 199 (66 W)
Subjective Adj.: 207 (69 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 23 Brian McCann# 13 22
1B 25 Scott Thorman* 1 3
2B 25 Kelly Johnson# 3 5
SS 31 Edgar Renteria 17 15
3B 35 Chipper Jones 20 14
RF 23 Jeff Francouer# 12 20
CF 30 Andruw Jones 21 19
LF 27 Ryan Langerhans# 8 10
C2 25 Brayan Pena+ 1 4
INF 31 Chris Woodward 3 3
OF 30 Craig Wilson 9 8
12 29 Matt Diaz# 5 5
13 24 Willy Aybar# 5 8
SP1 40 John Smoltz 16 15
SP2 31 Tim Hudson 11 9
SP3 25 Chuck James* 4 9
SP4 33 Mark Redman 6 4
SP5 26 Lance Cormier 2 2
RP1 38 Bob Wickman 8 6
RP2 29 Mike Gonzalez 9 8
RP3 27 Rafael Soriano 4 4
RP4 25 Oscar Villereal 4 4
RP5 24 Macay McBride# 2 2

Also on hand: Pete Orr, Kyle Davies, Mike Hampton (both injured), Chad Paronto, Tanyan Sturtze, Tyler Yates, and Peter Moylan. I used subjective adjustments to bump up both Thorman and Kelly Johnson to 8 WS to reflect the fact that their EWSL numbers reflect very little playing time; 8 is a conservative measure but I try to limit the size of the subjective adjustments when possible, since they are based on pure speculation (plus, Thorman will be platooned with Craig Wilson, while Johnson may well lose his job to Aybar once Aybar is healthy). Either way, Atlanta’s offense will miss Marcus Giles and Adam LaRoche; I have trouble seeing this as an elite offensive team.
EWSL still projects Francouer, solely on the basis of his youth, to develop significantly; I think that’s possible but his strike zone judgment is so terrible that I can easily see him playing his last season as an everyday player around age 25.
On the whole, last season has stripped the Braves of the air of invulnerability that says that we just know that everything will turn out better for them than it looks on paper. Hudson in particular is now just another pitcher trying to make ends meet, and if Smoltz goes down, things get grim indeed. Oddly, the bullpen, last year’s Achilles heel, could be an elite pen this year with the addition of Gonzalez and Soriano.
Washington Nationals
Raw EWSL: 94 (31 W)
Adjusted: 110 (37 W)
Age-Adj.: 139 (46 W)
Subjective Adj.: 115 (38 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 30 Brian Schneider 13 12
1B 28 Nick Johnson 20 21
2B 27 Felipe Lopez 16 17
SS 29 Cristian Guzman 5 4
3B 22 Ryan Zimmerman* 13 54
RF 27 Austin Kearns 13 14
CF 27 Nook Logan 3 3
LF 28 Ryan Church# 7 9
C2 22 Jesus Flores+ 0 4
INF 33 Dmitri Young 6 5
OF 25 Chris Snelling# 1 3
12 32 Ron Belliard 15 12
13 33 Robert Fick 3 2
SP1 29 John Patterson 6 5
SP2 26 Shawn Hill* 1 1
SP3 25 Jerome Williams 3 4
SP4 24 Matt Chico+ 0 5
SP5 33 Jason Simontacchi 0 0
RP1 25 Chad Cordero 13 15
RP2 29 Luis Ayala 4 4
RP3 28 Jon Rauch 5 6
RP4 24 Ryan Wagner 1 1
RP5 29 Jesus Colome 2 1

I cut down Zimmerman, the most egregious of the 1-year guys, from 54 (!) win shares to a still-optimistic 30, but didn’t bother with other subjective tweaks even despite Nick Johnson’s injury; basically, this team will have to manufacture wins ex nihilo, because there is nearly no talent on hand with any kind of established track record you could rely on. You have to work really hard to lose 115 or more games – the odds say the Nationals catch some breaks somewhere and end up closer to 108 losses – but the Law of Competitive Balance is pretty much the only reason to think they won’t lose that many. This will very likely be the worst team in baseball; there is hope for at least modest improvement in Tampa, Kansas City and Pittsburgh, but not Washington.
The infield will be much better off if Cristian Guzman can reclaim his 2006 form as early in the season as possible, and he appears well on his way. The thumping the Nats took for the first two and a half games of their series with Florida is indicative of the pitching, especially if John Patterson – their one potential quality starter – doesn’t have a full, healthy season. It’s gonna be a long summer.
Check out the prior EWSL reports for the NL East: 2004, 2005, 2006.

Roto 2007, Part I

Apologies for the lack of original content here lately – life has been intervening more than usual. For those of you who are interested, I annually review my Rotisserie draft here on the site. Let’s start with the main roto team, drafted March 31 – AL league, traditional roto rules (4×4, 12 teams, $260 for 23 slots, 10 reserves) – for what it’s worth, last year’s team finished fourth (in the money), though only because two teams dropped out of the money for failing to meet the 1000 innings requirement:

Continue reading Roto 2007, Part I

Wright On!

NY Magazine has a long profile of David Wright, including how he views Derek Jeter as a role model and where women stand in his life these days:

“I don’t want to put them in the same category as drugs, but women can be a … a distraction,” he says. “I have to remember, baseball is the reason I have my apartment, baseball is the reason I’m on the cover of video games-baseball is what I do. I’m not saying I don’t ever … I mean, I go on dates, but I’ll just never let something like that become as important as the game. Not right now, at least.”

I think I will not comment on that. On the other hand, Wright appears to have lost interest in his blog, not posting since the beginning of the NLDS last season.

Fun with PECOTA

Baseball Prospectus’ team PECOTA projections ($) have the Mets finishing third in the NL East in scoring, well behind Philly and Atlanta, but winning the division on the strength of the third-fewest runs allowed in the National League.
BP is – unsurprisingly, given the conservatism of their projections – projecting a real shortage of quality starting pitching, especially of the 200+ IP variety. You will have to login or buy the book to get the hard numbers, but PECOTA projects only the following starters to meet the most basic ERA/IP standards:
200+ IP, Sub-3.00 ERA
AL: Johan Santana
NL: None
200+ IP, 3.00-3.99 ERA
AL: Jeremy Bonderman, Roy Halladay, John Lackey, CC Sabathia, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Curt Schilling
NL: Chris Carpenter, Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, Roy Oswalt, Carlos Zambrano, John Smoltz
100-199 IP, 3.00-3.99 ERA
AL: Felix Hernandez, Jered Weaver, Kelvim Escobar, Rich Harden
NL: Ben Sheets, Cole Hamels, Randy Johnson, Anthony Reyes, Adam Wainwright, Greg Maddux
200+ IP, 4.00-4.49 ERA
AL: Danny Haren
NL: Dontrelle Willis, Aaron Harang, Freddy Garcia
200+ IP, 4.50-4.99 ERA
AL: Jon Garland
NL: None

Best Record in Baseball

Certainly an encouraging start to the Mets’ season last night, and particularly a good start against the Cardinals to beat Chris Carpenter with Kip Wells and – chortle – Braden Looper starting the next two games. It was much better than, say, 2005, when the Mets played a beautiful game on Opening Day only to have it spoiled by – say it again – Braden Looper blowing the game in the ninth in spectacular fashion.
The Mets drip-dripped Carpenter with singles right up the middle in the rally that let them pull away, before David Eckstein finally decided to just plant himself behind second base…some great defense by Jose Reyes last night as well. After his offensive breakout in 2006, one of the major questions of 2007 is whether Reyes can start putting up great defensive stats to match his tremendous tools – his quickness, athleticism and the best shortstop arm in the game. His numbers thus far haven’t been impressive by most measures, though if Jose Valentin’s bat holds up, it may help to finally stabilize second base – like his crosstown rival Derek Jeter, Reyes has suffered from a revolving door at second including some highly questionable gloves.
The one moment I didn’t understand last night: 8th inning, 5-1 Mets, two men on, Joe Smith on the mound, Albert Pujols at bat, Smith throws his first pitch out of the strike zone. Smith throws his second pitch out of the strike zone. And I’m wondering: you have a raw rookie on the mound, a guy with 12.2 career innings above A ball, making his major league debut on the road on national television on Opening Day against the defending World Champions, best hitter in baseball at the plate, tying run on deck in the person of Scott Rolen, the one thing you don’t want to do here is walk Pujols – yet, when Smith gets himself into this position, nobody goes to the mound to talk to him. Isn’t that kind of what you pay a 35-year-old catcher to do, settle the kid down and focus him on making Pujols hit the ball? Instead, Smith walks him and the Mets had to get Aaron Heilman in the game to get Rolen.

Spring Samples

The Mets’ decision to give Mike Pelfrey the fifth starter job is, actually, a rare example of a situation in which the team properly considered spring training performance. Let me explain why.
The problem with relying on spring training performance is threefold. First, the spring is just a month – anybody can have a good or bad month. Small sample sizes don’t tell you what you need to know compared to the years-long track records most players bring to camp. Second, the level of competition is uneven – especially in the first half of the spring, a lot of playing time goes to minor leaguers, and the ability to beat them may not be as indicative or as evenly distributed as playing major league competition. And third, pitchers in particular in the spring may not mix their pitches the same way they do in the regular season when they are playing for real money – they may be more apt to experiment with pitches and less apt to use their best pitch sequences.
That said, the Mets’ fifth starter competition was a perfect storm for allowing spring results to matter. The Mets had in camp two prospects who they planned to make long-term parts of the rotation, Pelfrey and Phil Humber. Also on hand were three guys with at least intermittent success as big league starters – Chan Ho Park, Aaron Sele and Jorge Sosa – but whose performance in recent years would not justify making them part of any long-range plan in the rotation. The questions were, (1) whether Pelfrey and/or Humber were ready enough to contribute in the short run and not get ruined by being sent in over their heads, and (2) if not, whether any of the others at least had enough gas to give the Mets 10-15 decent starts before the prospects were ready or before a midseason deal could be swung.
In that situation, it makes perfect sense to let the spring tell you what it can: not who is better than who, but who is in a better groove right now. If Park, for example, was throwing the ball really well in the spring, that may tell you nothing about October, but it might suggest he was primed to have a solid April, and if you get one or two good months from a stopgap solution, that’s a thing of value in itself.
As it turned out, the competition was lopsided: the three veterans pitched poorly, Humber got clobbered, and the best long-term pitcher of the group, Pelfrey, was lights-out. So maybe the small sample size was just the same as a larger one, this time.
In other Mets news, as I’ve advocated it before, I’m happy to see the Mets try David Wright in the #2 hole. Even though Lo Duca turned out well batting second last season, at 35 it’s unrealistic to expect him to hit .318 again, and he lacks the walks, power, or speed to compensate if he hits .280.

Hooked on Phoenix

I’m just catching up now after a business trip to Arizona; regular blogging should resume soon. I had not been to Arizona before; definitely a new experience for an East Coaster, from the unnaturally clear skies (the moon being visible pretty much all afternoon) to the everything-takes-30-minutes-by-car sprawl.
Also, got to see my first live spring training game, Teusday’s Giants-Mariners game that ended 9-8 Giants on a late Seattle rally that wasn’t enough to overcome Horacio Ramirez getting pasted. A few thoughts on that. First, as a Mets fan I’m sad to see Ramirez no longer pitching for Atlanta; Seattle is highly unlikely to get equal value after dealing Rafael Soriano for him. Second, up close in person Barry Bonds and Ichiro look even less like big league ballplayers (especially next to a monster like Richie Sexson) – Bonds looks, at most, like a retired athlete, while Ichiro looks like a miler. But Bonds hit the ball with his customary authority (a double that would have been a homer but for a 25-30 foot high center field fence) and seemed to be moving OK, albeit at spring training coasting speed. And third, I never, ever expected to attend a baseball game and see Rey Ordonez play again.

2007 AL West EWSL Report

The third of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. EWSL is explained here, and you should read that link before commenting on the method; 2007 revisions to the age adjustment discussed here and rookie adjustments here). Bear in mind as always that (1) EWSL is a record of past performance, adjusted by age to give an assessment of the available talent on hand; it is not an individualized projection system; (2) individual EWSL are rounded off but team totals are compiled from the unrounded figures; and (3) as demonstrated here and here in some detail, nearly all teams will win more games than their EWSL total because I’m only rating 23 players per team. Further disclaimers and explanations are in my AL East preview here; my AL Central preview is here.
The Angels
Raw EWSL: 239 (80 W)
Adjusted: 257 (86 W)
Age-Adj.: 243 (81 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 25 Mike Napoli* 5 13
1B 24 Casey Kotchman 2 2
2B 23 Howie Kendrick* 3 9
SS 32 Orlando Cabrera 16 13
3B 29 Chone Figgins 19 17
RF 31 Vladimir Guerrero 26 22
CF 32 Gary Matthews 16 14
LF 35 Garret Anderson 15 10
DH 31 Shea Hillenbrand 11 10
C2 32 Jose Molina 6 5
INF 30 Robb Quinlan 6 6
OF 28 Juan Rivera 14 15
13 26 Macier Izturis 9 10
SP1 28 John Lackey 15 16
SP2 24 Jered Weaver* 7 15
SP3 24 Ervin Santana# 8 10
SP4 31 Kelvim Escobar 10 8
SP5 34 Bartolo Colon 8 6
RP1 25 Francisco Rodriguez 16 18
RP2 31 Scot Shields 12 10
RP3 33 Justin Speier 7 5
RP4 37 Hector Carrasco 7 7
RP5 26 Joe Saunders* 2 4

Injuries are a huge issue with the Angels right now. Colon is still rehabbing, and Weaver won’t be ready for Opening Day, giving Saunders, at least, room in the rotation, and possibly Dustin Moseley. Figgins could be out several weeks. Dallas McPherson is sidelined for a year.
I could have used a subjective adjustment to bump up Kotchman, but then he has an injury history himself, and EWSL is also rating Rivera and Izturis high based on their prior playing time, and the Angels have a lot of flexibility to slide people between OF, 3B, 1B and DH. If Kotchman can’t establish himself, Kendry Morales will eat his lunch. Also expect Brandon Wood to enter the picture, probably as a result of Cabrera getting dealt.
I’m pretty pessimistic that a 35-year-old Garret Anderson will produce and last in left; the sooner they get Rivera out there, the better. End of the day, the Angels are division favorites on the strength of their starting pitching – if the starters can get healthy, they will be formidible, if not they don’t have the offensive firepower to overcome that loss.
Oakland A’s
Raw EWSL: 232 (77 W)
Adjusted: 238 (79 W)
Age-Adj.: 220 (73 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 33 Jason Kendall 20 18
1B 27 Dan Johnson# 6 7
2B 30 Mark Ellis 14 13
SS 27 Bobby Crosby 10 11
3B 29 Eric Chavez 18 16
RF 27 Nick Swisher# 14 15
CF 29 Milton Bradley 13 12
LF 33 Shannon Stewart 8 7
DH 38 Mike Piazza 12 8
C2 35 Adam Melhuse 2 2
INF 31 Marco Scutaro 11 9
OF 30 Bobby Kielty 8 7
13 31 Mark Kotsay 15 13
SP1 25 Rich Harden 8 10
SP2 26 Danny Haren 12 12
SP3 26 Joe Blanton# 9 11
SP4 35 Esteban Loaiza 8 5
SP5 28 Joe Kennedy 7 7
RP1 23 Huston Street# 12 15
RP2 29 Justin Duchscherer 10 9
RP3 32 Kiko Calero 6 4
RP4 26 Brad Halsey 5 5
SP5 24 Chad Gaudin 4 4

It’s not hard to be optimistic about the A’s when you look in the “age” column – besides Piazza, Kendall and Loaiza, this team’s key guys are as close to the sweet spot as any team since the 2002 Angels. A lot needs to go right for this team to win 90+ games, but when you load your lineup with guys in that age range, good things do happen. Dan Johnson is really in a do-or-die situation at age 27, and ought to pay off for the A’s if he really has gotten his eyes fixed. Bradley is in his walk year. Crosby, who has stagnated with injuries, is more worrisome.
Also on hand: Antonio Perez, Erubiel Durazo, and a handful of pitching prospects (Jason Windsor, Shane Komine, Dan Meyer) who could step up if Joe Kennedy continues to struggle, as he has this spring.
Seattle Mariners
Raw EWSL: 215 (72 W)
Adjusted: 229 (76 W)
Age-Adj.: 213 (71 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 31 Kenji Johjima* 10 17
1B 32 Richie Sexson 18 15
2B 23 Jose Lopez 10 15
SS 25 Yuniesky Betancourt# 8 11
3B 28 Adrian Beltre 19 20
RF 27 Jose Guillen 10 8
CF 33 Ichiro Suzuki 24 21
LF 35 Raul Ibanez 20 14
DH 32 Jose Vidro 11 10
C2 23 Rene Rivera* 2 3
INF 30 Ben Broussard 12 11
OF 26 Jeremy Reed 4 5
13 29 Willie Bloomquist 4 4
SP1 21 Felix Hernandez* 7 11
SP2 32 Jarrod Washburn 10 7
SP3 30 Jeff Weaver 8 7
SP4 27 Horacio Ramirez 5 5
SP5 36 Miguel Batista 10 8
RP1 30 JJ Putz 11 9
RP2 29 Julio Mateo 5 4
RP3 29 Chris Reitsma 4 3
RP4 30 George Sherrill 2 2
RP5 25 Jake Woods# 3 5

Also on hand: Mike Morse, Arthur Rhodes, Jon Huber, Sean Burroughs.
Broussard is presumably first in line if Vidro isn’t up to DH standards, but since Broussard isn’t really a significantly better a hitter than Vidro, that may not matter.
I have very little faith in Seattle’s rotation beyond Hernandez; even if Hernandez makes the Big Leap this season into Johan Santana-land, he will be dragging the rest of these guys behind him. The bullpen is deep, although questions about Putz’s health make it look a lot less so.
A stable lineup and rotation heading into March is usually a sign of a strong team, and sometimes even a leading indicator (I noticed the same thing about Detroit before last season). Seattle did come into the spring with players in relatively well-settled roles, and in some cases, as with the double play combination, that can signify a potential strength beyond the numbers on the page. But even if the Mariners are improved in 2007, they still have too few real offensive strengths and a pitching staff with too many big holes to seriously contend.
Texas Rangers
Raw EWSL: 175 (58 W)
Adjusted: 192 (64 W)
Age-Adj.: 180 (60 W)
Subjective Adj.: 185 (62 W)

13
POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 27 Gerald Laird 3 3
1B 27 Mark Teixera 26 27
2B 25 Ian Kinsler* 6 15
SS 30 Michael Young 27 25
3B 26 Hank Blalock 16 18
RF 26 Nelson Cruz* 2 3
CF 40 Kenny Lofton 12 7
LF 30 Brad Wilkerson 13 12
DH 35 Frank Catalanotto 11
C2 32 Miguel Ojeda 2 2
INF 22 Joaquin Arias+ 1 4
OF 29 Marlon Byrd 4 3
13 26 Jason Botts+ 1 4
SP1 32 Kevin Millwood 12 8
SP2 29 Vicente Padilla 9 8
SP3 23 Brandon McCarthy# 4 5
SP4 25 Robinson Tejeda 4 5
SP5 25 Kameron Loe# 4 5
RP1 31 Eric Gagne 5 4
RP2 35 Akinori Otsuka 10 6
RP3 27 Frank Francisco 1 1
RP4 26 CJ Wilson# 2 2
RP5 30 Rick Bauer 4 3

I’m bumping Laird up subjectively to 8 WS. You can call me a pessimist for leaving Sammy Sosa off here despite indications that he will start off the season as the everyday DH, but it wouldn’t affect the Rangers’ status as the clear preseason favorite to finish last, given their weak pitching and questionable outfield. This despite still having one of the best infields in baseball, maybe the best given the current status of the Yankees and Cardinals.
I expect Teixeira to bounce back this year and Kinsler to step up; Blalock is a more dauting puzzle, reaching the point where he needs to either go forward or abandon hope of making it as a star.
I assume Gagne will still be Gagne when healthy. If there is an upside on this team, it’s with Gagne, Blalock, Wilkerson, McCarthy, Kinsler, Teixeira, Botts and Tejeda – come to think of it, a pretty long list.
Check out previous AL West previews from 2006, 2005 and 2004.

The End of an Unsuccessful Career

David Pinto offers a damning assessment of Travis Lee’s career as it appears to have ended with his release by the woebegotten Nationals:

He didn’t get on base, he didn’t hit for power, all he could do was pick up throws at first base. And yet he parlayed that into a nine year career and made about $11 million dollars. Lee always struck me as someone who possessed talent for the game but not a passion for the game. When Leo Durocher said nice guys finish last, he was talking about Travis.

2007 AL Central EWSL Report

The second of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. EWSL is explained here, and you should read that link before commenting on the method; 2007 revisions to the age adjustment discussed here and rookie adjustments here). Bear in mind as always that (1) EWSL is a record of past performance, adjusted by age to give an assessment of the available talent on hand; it is not an individualized projection system; (2) individual EWSL are rounded off but team totals are compiled from the unrounded figures; and (3) as demonstrated here and here in some detail, nearly all teams will win more games than their EWSL total because I’m only rating 23 players per team. Further disclaimers and explanations are in my AL East preview here.
Detroit Tigers
Raw EWSL: 250 (83 W)
Adjusted: 267 (89 W)
Age-Adj.: 246 (82 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 35 Ivan Rodriguez 19 13
1B 32 Sean Casey 14 12
2B 31 Placido Polanco 17 15
SS 31 Carlos Guillen 19 16
3B 30 Brandon Inge 16 15
RF 33 Magglio Ordonez 14 12
CF 26 Curtis Granderson# 12 16
LF 30 Craig Monroe 13 12
DH 38 Gary Sheffield 18 13
C2 34 Vance Wilson 4 4
INF 27 Chris Shelton# 8 11
OF 30 Marcus Thames 7 6
13 25 Omar Infante 7 9
SP1 24 Jeremy Bonderman 11 11
SP2 23 Justin Verlander* 8 16
SP3 42 Kenny Rogers 14 13
SP4 29 Nate Robertson 11 9
SP5 29 Mike Maroth 7 6
RP1 39 Todd Jones 11 9
RP2 22 Joel Zumaya* 6 15
RP3 30 Fernando Rodney 6 5
RP4 41 Jose Mesa 6 6
RP5 30 Jason Grilli 2 2

The Tigers feel like last year’s fashion, and inevitably a few things will go wrong that didn’t last time around; Pudge and Rogers are old, Guillen may be off a little from last year, the team’s general lack of plate patience and lack of a true leadoff hitter could bite. But this is still and up-and-down solid team with some real depth (players not shown here include Zach Miner and Brent Clevlen), the addition of Sheffield should help the offense, and the power trio of Bonderman, Verlander and Zumaya are a very stable foundation for the present as well as the future, especially if Zumaya can be moved into the rotation at some point. Bonderman in particular has yet to really put up the kind of ERAs that his K/BB numbers suggest he has in him.
I would imagine that Casey will be sent packing once Shelton gets back on track; certainly the Shelton of 2005 is superior to anything Casey is likely to produce at this point. Which is not to say Casey’s acquisition was a bad idea, given the Tigers’ needs at the time, but when you take into consideration the double plays, he’s really only been a productive hitter once in the past five years.
Cleveland Indians
Raw EWSL: 214 (71 W)
Adjusted: 234 (78 W)
Age-Adj.: 240 (80 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 28 Victor Martinez 20 21
1B 26 Ryan Garko* 3 7
2B 24 Josh Barfield* 9 23
SS 25 Jhonny Peralta 16 20
3B 23 Andy Marte* 2 6
RF 33 Trot Nixon 11 9
CF 24 Grady Sizemore 21 26
LF 33 David Dellucci 11 9
DH 30 Travis Hafner 24 22
C2 27 Kelly Shoppach* 2 3
INF 27 Hector Luna 7 7
OF 33 Casey Blake 11 10
13 31 Jason Michaels 10 9
SP1 26 CC Sabathia 14 14
SP2 28 Cliff Lee 11 11
SP3 29 Jake Westbrook 12 10
SP4 24 Josh Sowers* 4 7
SP5 36 Paul Byrd 9 7
RP1 36 Joe Borowski 5 4
RP4 42 Roberto Hernandez 6 6
RP3 32 Rafael Betancourt 6 4
RP4 25 Fernando Cabrera# 2 3
RP5 26 Tom Mastny* 1 1

It seems ridiculous to list Mastny as a second-year player with just 16.1 innings of big-league experience, but the man had 7 save opportunities in the major leagues last season (he was second on the Indians in saves), so he really isn’t a true rookie. Josh Barfield is probably overprojected here for the same reasons I discussed regarding Melky Cabrera in the Yankees comment, but that is offset by the fact that the EWSL figures for Garko and Marte are lowballed by their half-seasons of experience last year, so I left them all as is.
As you probably know, the Indians underperformed their “Pythagorean” record by a whopping 11 games last year, so they ought to improve just standing still. Of course, it was the bullpen that did them in most of all last year, and while the new pen looks to be a little better, it hardly inspires confidence. If there had been the kind of relievers on the market this offseason that there were entering 2006, you have to figure the Indians would have laid out some serious cash – the Indians were a better team than the Blue Jays last year, by runs scored and allowed, but won 9 fewer games. You do the math and tell me if the money Toronto spent on BJ Ryan would have been a worthwhile investment for the Tribe.
This is probably the year that this officially becomes Grady Sizemore’s team, assuming he stays as indestructible as in past seasons. Cliff Lee has been ailing this spring, but if Cleveland’s Big Three can stay healthy they should have the starting pitching to run with the AL Central elite. Probably the two most important guys on the team are Peralta, who is still young and needs to show us whether 2005 or 2006 or somewhere in between is his real level of ability, and Sabathia, who seems perenially due for a breakout year if he is healthy. And, of course, the more games they can stand Victor Martinez’ defense behind the plate, the better.
One thing I’ve noticed in recent years is the decline of platooning, driven both by the ability of managers to neutralize platoons by going righty/lefty/righty from their bullpens ever earlier in the game, and by the need to carry fewer non-pitchers to make room for those overpopulated bullpens. The Blue Jays, though – always an organization on the forefront of platooning – used outfield platoons to great effect last year, and the Indians seem set to do the same, with Nixon/Blake and Dellucci/Michaels platoons in the corners. Shin-Soo Choo is also a fine hitter, and may yet surpass the struggling Hee Seop Choi as the best position player to come from Korea. That depth should be more generally helpful and may put their offense over the top.
Minnesota Twins
Raw EWSL: 222 (74 W)
Adjusted: 230 (77 W)
Age-Adj.: 223 (74 W)
Subjective Adj.: 234 (78 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 24 Joe Mauer 23 29
1B 26 Justin Morneau 17 19
2B 31 Luis Castillo 19 16
SS 27 Jason Bartlett# 9 11
3B 29 Nick Punto 9 8
RF 28 Michael Cuddyer 15 16
CF 31 Torii Hunter 15 12
LF 35 Rondell White 6 4
DH 25 Jason Kubel* 1 1
C2 36 Mike Redmond 6 5
INF 37 Jeff Cirillo 6 4
OF 30 Lew Ford 9 8
13 30 Jason Tyner 4 4
SP1 28 Johan Santana 24 25
SP2 26 Boof Bonser* 3 6
SP3 28 Carlos Silva 8 8
SP4 34 Ramon Ortiz 4 3
SP5 23 Matt Garza* 1 1
RP1 32 Joe Nathan 18 13
RP2 25 Jesse Crain 8 9
RP3 28 Juan Rincon 9 10
RP4 26 Pat Neshek* 3 6
RP5 30 Dennys Reyes 6 5

Note that the Twins’ numbers may be artificially depressed a bit here for two reasons – Jason Kubel isn’t going to produce just one Win Share as the everyday DH, and they actually have two other non-pitchers (Matt LeCroy and Phil Nevin), one or both of whom may make the team, with better EWSL numbers than Kubel and Tyner. Accordingly, I’m using the subjective-adjustment override to up Kubel to 8 WS to reflect that combination of factors, which also has the advantage of breaking the EWSL tie between the Twins and White Sox. I’m similarly using the adjustment to pop Garza up to 5 WS to at least equal what he would project at if he came into 2007 as a pure rookie.
The Twins are a classic “tweener” team – they have the bats to be a winner behind solid pitching, but not to carry a bad rotation even with a good bullpen. Yet, after Santana the rotation is two uncertain youngsters (Bonser and Garza, the latter with only about 200 innings in pro ball under his belt), and two veterans who have fallen long and hard from not being that great in the first place and are only a hope and prayer to be adequate. At least their lineup isn’t starting in a self-inflicted hole the way they did last year, but unless they can come up with better starters (giving Scott Baker a shot over Ortiz would be a step in the right direction that they are still considering, but Baker’s no more reliable than the other young guys), I can’t see them repeating as a 90-win team without Francisco Liriano.
Chicago White Sox
Raw EWSL: 239 (80 W)
Adjusted: 249 (83 W)
Age-Adj.: 223 (74 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 30 AJ Pierzynski 13 12
1B 31 Paul Konerko 22 18
2B 32 Tadahito Iguchi# 16 16
SS 27 Juan Uribe 14 15
3B 29 Joe Crede 16 15
RF 33 Jermaine Dye 20 18
CF 25 Brian Anderson* 3 6
LF 31 Scott Podsednik 11 9
DH 36 Jim Thome 18 13
C2 31 Toby Hall 7 6
INF 28 Alex Cintron 7 7
OF 33 Darin Erstad 8 7
13 31 Rob Mackowiak 10 8
SP1 28 Mark Buehrle 15 16
SP2 35 Jose Contreras 13 8
SP3 27 Jon Garland 16 15
SP4 30 Javier Vazquez 11 9
SP5 24 Gavin Floyd 0 0
RP1 26 Bobby Jenks# 8 10
RP2 30 Mike MacDougal 5 4
RP3 30 Matt Thornton 4 4
RP4 24 Andy Sisco# 2 2
RP5 25 David Aardsma* 2 5

The White Sox probably need to stop coasting on 2005 and get Podsednik out of the lineup if he can’t keep his OBP above .350 and his stolen base percentage above 70%; he just doesn’t bring anything else to the table.
Chicago has another deep bench, and will undoubtedly use it if Anderson can’t win back Ozzie Guillen’s confidence.
Floyd is a major crapshoot – with him, Jenks, MacDougal, and Sisco around, White Sox fans will get plenty of heartburn. It would not surprise me, if Floyd doesn’t pan out, to see Sisco get a run in the rotation. He’s still a major talent despite last year’s not-entirely-shocking setbacks.
Kansas City Royals
Raw EWSL: 145 (48 W)
Adjusted: 168 (56 W)
Age-Adj.: 156 (52 W)
Subjective Adj.: 159

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 26 John Buck 8 9
1B 27 Ryan Shealy* 4 6
2B 37 Mark Grudzielanek 14 9
SS 29 Angel Berroa 8 7
3B 23 Alex Gordon+ 0 11
RF 24 Mark Teahen# 12 18
CF 27 David DeJesus 14 15
LF 32 Emil Brown 13 11
DH 33 Mike Sweeney 10 9
C2 33 Jason LaRue 11 9
INF 29 Esteban German* 6 10
OF 39 Reggie Sanders 9 7
13 31 Ross Gload 3 3
SP1 28 Gil Meche 7 7
SP2 30 Odalis Perez 4 4
SP3 30 Luke Hudson 4 3
SP4 26 Brian Bannister* 2 3
SP5 23 Zack Grienke 3 3
RP1 33 Octavio Dotel 3 2
RP2 30 David Riske 5 4
RP3 26 Jorge De La Rosa 2 2
RP4 28 Todd Wellemeyer 2 2
RP5 31 Joel Peralta# 3 3

On the subjective adjustments, I topped up Ryan Shealy from 6 to 9 WS to reflect a conservative estimate of his value with increased playing time. I considered doing the same for Brian Bannister, but it’s better practice not to make assumptions about any pitcher’s ability to pitch more than he did last year. They would pick up a Win Share or three if you spotted in Joey Gathright in place of Gload.
Amazingly, EWSL rates the Royals even lower than it did last season, when I was certain that they would lose at least 110 games (they lost 100). In part that’s because this team is even younger and its veterans even further removed from their primes, neither of which is really bad news for the franchise, but both of which provide a caution that the revival of long-term optimism that has bloomed lately in KC may not yet be matched by anything tangible on the field.
Mike Sweeney is only 33? He seems a lot older. He’s a good guy and a hometown favorite, but it’s probably near time to plan for a future without him. As for John Buck, he’s only 25 and I still think he has a chance to turn into a decent hitter (he’ll need a mite more plate discipline), but I take LaRue’s arrival as a sign that the Royals are not unlimited in their patience with Buck. Then there’s Angel Berroa, who just sucks the life out of this team on both sides of the ball. Get as excited as you want about Gordon and Teahen, but the Royals aren’t getting out of the cellar as long as Berroa is the everyday shortstop.
That said, I do think the Royals will be improved this season – they’re much like the Devil Rays (albeit behind them on the curve), developing a bunch of talented young position players under the guidance of a new GM, but without any basis beyond hope and prayer to think they are making progress towards fixing their abysmal track record with pitchers. They probably need to reach into the farm system and bring up people not listed here to get to 70 wins – Billy Butler, for one, and maybe Justin Huber.
Check out prior years’ AL Central reports for 2004, 2005, and 2006.

2007 AL East EWSL Report

The AL East is yet again the first stop in my annual division-by-division roundups, powered by Established Win Shares Levels (EWSL is explained here, and you should read that link before commenting on the method; 2007 revisions to the age adjustment discussed here and rookie adjustments here). Bear in mind as always that (1) EWSL is a record of past performance, adjusted by age to give an assessment of the available talent on hand; it is not an individualized projection system; (2) individual EWSL are rounded off but team totals are compiled from the unrounded figures; and (3) as demonstrated here and here in some detail, nearly all teams will win more games than their EWSL total because I’m only rating 23 players per team (I’m not convinced going to 24 or 25 would make the system more useful, since it would tend to overrate teams that stuff their back bench slots with aging ex-regulars). As always, the depth charts here are drawn from a number of sources and modified to list the guys who will do the work (e.g., if there are two guys battling for a fifth starter spot I’ll often list one of them with the relievers if I think they’ll both end up pitching), but I take responsibility for any errors. It’s still a fluid time for rosters.
The Hated Yankees
Raw EWSL: 279 (93 W)
Adjusted: 295 (98 W)
Age-Adj.: 270 (90 W)
Subjective Adj: 256 (85 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 35 Jorge Posada 22 15
1B 33 Doug Mientkiewicz 6 5
2B 24 Robinson Cano# 13 19
SS 33 Derek Jeter 29 25
3B 31 Alex Rodriguez 29 24
RF 33 Bobby Abreu 28 24
CF 33 Johnny Damon 23 20
LF 33 Hideki Matsui 16 14
DH 36 Jason Giambi 20 15
C2 29 Wil Nieves 0 0
INF 30 Andy Phillips* 1 1
OF 22 Melky Cabrera* 7 29
13 33 Miguel Cairo 6 5
SP1 35 Andy Pettitte 14 8
SP2 38 Mike Mussina 12 9
SP3 27 Chien-Ming Wang# 10 12
SP4 27 Kei Igawa+ 0 5
SP5 31 Carl Pavano 4 4
RP1 37 Mariano Rivera 17 16
RP2 31 Kyle Farnsworth 8 6
RP3 32 Luis Vizcaino 7 4
RP4 30 Scott Proctor 5 4
RP5 38 Mike Myers 3 3

There is, sadly, a difference between doing baseball statistical studies professionally and doing them in your spare time, and one of them is that when you discover a methodological problem that should send you back to the drawing board, it’s too late to change. EWSL more than doubles the Win Shares for a 22-year-old non-pitcher, based upon my experience with 15 such players over the past three seasons. Unfortunately, most of those 15 were guys who were working their way up to a full season of playing time; when the age adjustment is applied to a guy who played regularly for one season at age 21, it has a serious risk of over-projecting improvement. We will see this especially graphically when we get to the NL East.
Here, EWSL values Melky Cabrera as the best player in the AL East. Urk. It’s true that Melky’s ability to post a .360 OBP, have a nearly 1-to-1 BB/K ratio, and crack 26 doubles in 524 plate appearances at age 21 are all suggestive of a high-quality player who should take impressive strides forward this season. But there is simply very little chance that he will play regularly this year, let alone play a lot more than he did in 2006, and so for the first time (other than a 50% haircut I applied in 2005 to the injured Barry Bonds) I’m applying the Band-Aid solution of using subjective adjustments where appropriate to bring particular teams into line with what should be their reasonable expectations (you can still see and compare the purely objective ratings if you prefer them – I’ll flag the players being adjusted with italics). Here, what I’m doing is shaving Melky down to 15 EWSL – still high for a bench player, but he’s backing up three or four 33-year-olds (depending whether you think Giambi can slot in at first in a pinch) and a 36-year-old, so he should still get close to 400 PA. (Josh Phelps and Todd Pratt should take the remaining roster spots).
As for the team as a whole, the Hated Yankees’ status as favorites may seem as fixed as one of Newton’s Laws, but eventually we will find out whether they need to take some lumps like mortals when they can no longer rely on Jeter, Rivera and Posada as their anchors; we’ll be asking those questions soon about the latter two. This is an old team – it’s been an old team for years and has been shedding the oldest guys only gradually, and (as in the case of Gary Sheffield) replacing them with players who are likewise past 32. We saw last season what risks that carries even when you invest in players with previously bulletproof health records.
That is this team’s only major weakness, though there are a number of smaller ones – Pavano’s health, some questions about the bullpen and the bench beyond Melky, Minky’s bat (although he’ll be useful if he’s platooned and hits like he did in 2006) – and there are young pitchers on the way, led by super-prospect Philip Hughes. Even with Cano sliding back a bit in his batting average and Jeter likely to return to his usual self, this team will score loads of runs and should have adequate starting pitching to take the AL East.
Boston Red Sox
Raw EWSL: 245 (82 W)
Adjusted: 263 (88 W)
Age-Adj.: 235 (78 W)
Subjective Adj: 240 (80 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 35 Jason Varitek 13 9
1B 28 Kevin Youkilis 13 14
2B 23 Dustin Pedroia+ 1 11
SS 31 Julio Lugo 18 15
3B 33 Mike Lowell 15 13
RF 31 JD Drew 19 16
CF 27 Coco Crisp 14 15
LF 35 Manny Ramirez 29 20
DH 31 David Ortiz 28 23
C2 36 Doug Mirabelli 4 3
INF 31 Alex Cora 8 6
OF 25 Wily Mo Pena 9 11
13 29 Eric Hinske 8 8
SP1 40 Curt Schilling 13 12
SP2 26 Daisuke Matsuzaka+ 0 5
SP3 27 Josh Beckett 11 11
SP4 26 Jon Papelbon# 11 13
SP5 40 Tim Wakefield 10 9
RP1 28 Joel Piniero 2 2
RP2 41 Mike Timlin 9 8
RP3 35 Brendan Donnelly 5 3
RP4 25 Manny Delcarmen* 2 4
RP5 34 Julian Tavarez 6 4

I’ve adjusted Matsuzaka, as a very high-quality foreign entry, up to 10 EWSL from the usual 5 for rookie starting pitchers. Valuing Matsuzaka at 10 and Kei Igawa at 5 may still be conservative, but you can rarely go wrong being conservative with rookie starting pitchers, whatever their pedigree, and especially in the American League.
The BoSox have two things going for them as against the Yankees. On the one hand, they have more upside from their established performance levels – any of their front four starters could be outstanding, with their ace, Schilling, perhaps having the lowest odds of a big leap forward (a lot has happened to him since 2004). JD Drew could always be healthy and rip off a “Lynn in 79” season. Piniero could turn his value around, freed of the workload of a starting pitcher. Crisp could have a huge year at age 27 after last season’s regression.
On the other hand, the Sox have more depth, at least in the lineup, to withstand injury; Cora, Hinske and Pena give them more credible alternatives than the Yankees, who can only play Melky at one position at a time. Bullpen options besides those shown here include Craig Hansen and JC Romero (I still wouldn’t bet against Hansen ending up the closer by mid-season; Piniero hasn’t impressed this spring). Backups in the rotation are more questionable, as one wouldn’t want to bank on Matt Clement or Jon Lester being ready to go any time in 2007, and that leaves us last year’s collection of failed emergency options.
Overall, though, the Sawx are most likely competing for the Wild Card. The rotation could unravel due to health issues; Father Time could finally make some inroads on Manny at age 35, immaturity not being a defense to aging. Even if neither of those things happens, they don’t have the guns to run with the Yankees unless the Yankees really get the aging bug badly or the Sox’ rotation steps up in a big way.
Toronto Blue Jays
Raw EWSL: 217 (72 W)
Adjusted: 225 (75 W)
Age-Adj.: 209 (70 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 36 Gregg Zaun 10 8
1B 30 Lyle Overbay 18 16
2B 25 Aaron Hill* 10 15
SS 37 Royce Clayton 9 6
3B 30 Troy Glaus 17 16
RF 26 Alex Rios 13 15
CF 28 Vernon Wells 21 22
LF 30 Reed Johnson 13 12
DH 39 Frank Thomas 14 11
C2 30 Jason Phillips 3 3
INF 26 Russ Adams 6 7
OF 23 Adam Lind+ 2 4
13 39 Matt Stairs 10 8
SP1 30 Roy Halladay 17 14
SP2 30 AJ Burnett 9 8
SP3 26 Gustavo Chacin# 7 9
SP4 31 Tomo Ohka 6 5
SP5 30 Shaun Marcum* 2 4
RP1 31 BJ Ryan 16 13
RP2 29 Jason Frasor 5 4
RP3 24 Brandon League# 3 3
RP4 25 Jeremy Accardo# 3 4
RP5 31 Scott Downs 5 4

I don’t recall if Bill James ever formally listed the signs of a bad organization, but you would think that employing Royce Clayton as an everyday player (at age 37!) would qualify. JP Ricciardi is a smart guy, but if there’s a method to that particular madness it eludes me.
Lind was sent down to AAA on Saturday, but I still expect him to play a big role in the outfield, as he’s a serious hitter. Remaining roster slots should go to John McDonald, John Hattig and Jason Smith, or possibly Sal Fasano. Several experienced starting pitchers are on hand as additional options, including Josh Towers, Jon Thomson and Victor Zambrano, plus a bunch of the young arms who got exposure last season. I expect League to contribute more than EWSL suggests, and he could well be preferred over Frasor as a primary setup man.
The Jays, like the Sox, could exceed reasonable expectations if their starting pitching stays healthy and steps forward, but even if that happens and Frank Thomas is healthy, these guys will be hard pressed to match last season’s 87 wins.
Baltimore Orioles
Raw EWSL: 214 (71 W)
Adjusted: 225 (75 W)
Age-Adj.: 204 (68 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 31 Ramon Hernandez 16 14
1B 30 Jeff Conine 13 12
2B 29 Brian Roberts 19 17
SS 31 Miguel Tejada 25 21
3B 35 Melvin Mora 20 14
RF 23 Nick Markakis* 6 17
CF 27 Corey Patterson 11 12
LF 34 Jay Payton 14 13
DH 30 Jay Gibbons 10 10
C2 35 Paul Bako 2 1
INF 36 Chris Gomez 5 4
OF 35 Kevin Millar 13 9
13 32 Brandon Fahey* 2 5
SP1 28 Erik Bedard 10 11
SP2 26 Daniel Cabrera# 7 7
SP3 29 Adam Loewen* 2 4
SP4 36 Steve Trachsel 5 4
SP5 31 Jaret Wright 6 5
RP1 25 Chris Ray# 7 10
RP2 29 Denys Baez 8 7
RP3 32 Chad Bradford 5 3
RP4 35 Jamie Walker 5 3
RP5 36 Todd Williams 4 3

Nick Markakis, by the way, is precisely the kind of player EWSL’s sharp upward slope for very young regulars is based on – he was in and out of the lineup in the first half last season due to his mediocre performance, but picked up his power stroke in the second half, and anyone who saw him play after the All-Star Break expects significanly better full-season numbers from him in 2007. By contrast, Corey Patterson’s EWSL hasn’t changed a whit from last year, as he is basically topping out.
The Orioles’ lineup is wall-to-wall adequate, but Tejada and perhaps Markakis are the only star-level contributors, and Tejada may yet break Jim Rice’s single-season GIDP record. And the starting rotation, even with Bedard progressing nicely and the talented Loewen not far behind, is basically a burnt offering to Leo Mazzone. The Orioles will perform respectably for a fourth-place team, but have little to recommend them as anything more.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Raw EWSL: 108 (36 W)
Adjusted: 147 (49 W)
Age-Adj.: 159 (53 W)
Subjective Adj: 164 (55 W)

POS Age PLAYER Raw EWSL Age Adj
C 23 Dioner Navarro# 4 7
1B 29 Ty Wigginton 10 9
2B 25 Jorge Cantu 9 12
SS 26 Ben Zobrist* 1 2
3B 28 Akinori Iwamura+ 0 11
RF 21 Delmon Young+ 1 11
CF 25 Rocco Baldelli 9 11
LF 25 Carl Crawford 21 27
DH 26 Johnny Gomes 9 10
C2 32 Josh Paul 3 2
INF 22 BJ Upton 2 4
OF 34 Greg Norton 5 4
13 26 Brendan Harris+ 0 4
SP1 23 Scott Kazmir 10 10
SP2 25 James Shields* 3 7
SP3 30 Jae Seo 6 5
SP4 29 Casey Fossum 4 3
SP5 27 Brian Stokes+ 1 5
RP1 26 Seth McClung 1 1
RP2 27 Ruddy Lugo* 4 7
RP3 31 Shawn Camp 3 3
RP4 36 Dan Miceli 3 2
RP5 36 Al Reyes 3 3

There’s a saying about Brazil that it’s the country of the future and always will be . . . so it seems with Tampa, which has done a fine job scouting talented youngsters (at least non-pitchers) but never seems to yield much in the win column.
This team should not be as terrible as its EWSL profile suggests, even with a subjective adjustment of Ben Zobrist from 2 to 7 EWSL to account for the fact that he has a steady job. The profile of Tampa’s lineup looks a lot like last year’s Marlins, no track record but a fair amount of talent. Of course, your guess for the Dan Uggla in this picture is as good as mine, and I don’t see a Josh Johnson even if Kazmir plays Dontrelle…basically, the Rays should score a decent number of runs, especially if Upton slots in somewhere as a regular and shakes off 2006’s apathetic performance with the bat, but there are too many question marks, too little patience and power here to make a really to-flight offense even if everything goes right, and too few credible major league pitchers (even trying the control-challenged McClung as a closer is a sign of desperation) to project them at much more than 75 wins as a best-case scenario.
You can compare the prior AL East roundups for 2004 here, 2005 here and 2006 here.

BASEBALL/ True Confessions

Been busy doing baseball stuff with my free time instead of posting, but here’s a quick thought: there’s a common thread in the recent confessions of Pete Rose (who admitted betting on the Reds every day) and Khalid Sheikh Muhammad (who started off confessing to terror plots and ended by admitting responsibility for everything but killing JonBenet and shooting J.R.).
Ordinarily, we view confessions as credible because, in legal parlance, they are against interest – you usually don’t confess falsely (unless you are crazy or seeking attention) to something bad.
Here, though, there are reasons to suspect that both men might be overstating their culpability for reasons strategic. In Rose’s case, a manager betting on his team every night is actually less troublesome than betting on them selected nights, for a variety of reasons ranging from more even and rational use of his pitching resources (i.e., not burning out his pitchers one night to the detriment of a game he’s not betting on, or resting Eric Davis when he has no money on the line) to not signalling other gamblers by his selections. Of course, Rose used his bullpen as if he had money riding on every game, to the arguable detriment of the team. (More on Rose here from back in 2000 when I was still in the BIll James-influenced camp of Dowd Report critics – although I still stand by the analysis of why Rose belongs in Cooperstown).
In Muhammad’s case, the incentive issue is a different one – he’s been held in sufficient isolation for long enough that he really can’t have any idea which of his fellow jihadists have been captured and which have not, so it’s in his interests – given that he knows we know enough about his culpability to hold him indefinitely anyway – to claim as large a role as he can for himself and by doing so avoid implicating additional people who might be at large, beyond those he’s already given up.

The Baseball Economist

BaseballEconomist.jpgThis Thursday, a new title aimed at the analytical-minded baseball fan will hit the shelves: The Baseball Economist, by J.C. Bradbury, who writes the Sabernomics blog. I was fortunate enough to receive a review copy of the book.
Now, I will admit, first of all, that I find “business of baseball” issues dreary and depressing (that’s one of the two reasons I rarely write about them here, the other being that my law firm does too much work for companies engaged in the business for me to discuss them without wading into a hornet’s nest of conflicts). Something like a third of this book is devoted to “business of baseball” issues, and I have thus far only skimmed those parts. Your mileage may vary as to your interest level in the topic.
The title notwithstanding, though, the book isn’t principally a book of economics but a book applying the analytical tools used by economists to statistical and other data about baseball. On the whole, I found the book incisive and well-written, as you would expect from Bradbury. Probably the best chapter (the book is basically a collection of 16 essays on distinct subjects) was a careful study of the case for Leo Mazzone for the Hall of Fame. There are also particularly interesting reviews of manager lobbying for ball and strike calls (using a comparison of data from Questec and non-Questec parks) and the demise of left-handed throwing catchers.
The book isn’t perfect; as tends to happen sometimes with sabermetric authors trying to figure out what to write for general vs. experienced audiences, there’s a chapter called “How to Judge a Hitter or a Pitcher,” most of which will be old hat to most people who have read a Bill James or Rob Neyer book along the way (which is most of the people who will buy this book). Then again, as I said I’m probably giving short shrift to the economic stuff in here. For those of you looking for a thoughtful supplement to your annual baseball reading list, check it out.