Baseball 2012 Archives

Looking through the baseball-reference.com Play Indexes, which have this data back to 1948, yields some interesting nuggets.

Highest opposing BABIP, 100 or more innings: Glendon Rusch in 2003 (.381). You can beat the balls in play if you're good enough: BABIP vs Pedro Martinez in 1999: .325.

Most 2B allowed in a season since 1948: 68 by Rick Helling in 2001. Tied for second: 66 by Helling in 2000.

Most 3B allowed in a season since 1948 is a 4-way tie at 17, but Larry Christenson managed it in 1976 in just 168.2 IP. That 1976 Phillies team frequently had Greg Luzinski in LF, Ollie Brown or Jay Johnstone in RF, Garry Maddox in CF.

Most steals allowed in a season: 60 by Dwight Gooden in 1990. Tied for second: Gooden with 56 in 1988. Fewest: 200 innings in a season without allowing a steal has been done 10 times, four of them by Whitey Ford; Kenny Rogers in 2002 is the only one since 1968. Most career steals allowed: 757 off Nolan Ryan, and it's not even close, Greg Maddux is second at 547. Gooden allowed 452 steals in just 2800.2 innings.

Then there's the things besides steals that get buried in a pitcher's line, even looking at BABIP numbers, most of all double plays, doubles and triples. Tommy John induced 605 double plays in his career. Since 1948, Jim Kaat is second with 462, a huge gap. For the 61 pitchers to throw 3000 or more innings over that period - admittedly an elite group - I broke out their GIDP, steals, doubles, triples, and total bases allowed on doubles and triples (23B/9, counting triples twice) per 9 innings. The results are obviously heavily influenced by era and park and teammates, but interesting nonetheless - Tommy John and Dennis Eckersley are as dominant in the most- and least-DP business as Ryan and Whitey Ford are in allowing the most and least steals. I sorted the table by GIDP/9, so for the others:

SB/9: Most - Ryan, Tim Wakefield, Joe Niekro, Eckersley; Fewest - Ford, Billy Pierce, Warren Spahn, Rogers.

3B/9: Most - Robin Roberts, Bob Friend, Curt Simmons (Roberts' longtime teammate). Fewest - Chuck Finley, Randy Johnson, Jamie Moyer (Johnson's Seattle teammate).

23B/9 (largely the same list as 2B/9): Most - Rogers, David Wells, Livan Hernandez, Wakefield. Fewest - Juan Marichal, Ryan, Bob Gibson, Ford.

All of which went a long way to explaining to me why Whitey Ford was so successful in an era when the truly fielding-independent paths to success (K, BB, HR) were limited - few pitchers in the 50s had especially low BB/9, high K/9 or huge variances in HR/9. Not to say there was no variations, but not nearly enough for a pitcher to really distinguish himself (it's a study for another day to ask whether BABIP was as pitcher-independent in that era as today). But what's clear is that, with the help of a superior defense and possibly park effects (see here and here), Ford cut off the running game, induced a lot of double plays, and rarely allowed doubles or triples, which in addition to a fairly low HR rate explains how a guy with a 1.37 K/BB ratio from 1950-60 could be such a dominating pitcher year in and year out.

The table is below the fold.

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The torn ACL suffered by Mariano Rivera shagging fly balls in the wet Kansas City outfield last night most likely ends his career at age 42. Even the most determined Yankee hater like myself - or the most determined skeptic of the modern closer role - had to appreciate and respect Rivera's talent, his accomplishments, his cool under pressure, his Christian faith and quiet dignity. And he did it, basically, with one pitch.

A few numbers to give the scale of Rivera's greatness, which will undoubtedly carry him swiftly to Cooperstown:

-Rivera exits still at the top of his game. His ERA and ERA+ thus far this season were both better than his career averages for the fifth consecutive season...from age 38-42. Counting the postseason, he was working on strings of 21 straight appearances without an unintentional walk and 28 straight appearances without allowing a home run. This season, he'd struck out 8 (above his career K/9 ratio) and allowed (excluding intentional walks) 6 baserunners out of the 32 batters he faced. Absent injury, who knows how long he could have kept that up? But after 1051 big league games without a significant injury, he can hardly complain.

-Rivera appeared in 848 games in which he was not charged with a run, the third-highest total of all time, behind Jesse Orosco (951) and Mike Stanton (864). Rivera threw more innings in those appearances than either of them, although four pitchers since 1918 threw more innings in scoreless appearances (Hoyt Wilhelm, Rollie Fingers, Rich Gossage and Kent Tekulve), plus presumably Walter Johnson (with 110 career shutouts) would top Rivera on that score. Rivera was unscored-upon in 560 of his career saves; only one other pitcher (Trevor Hoffman) even had a career total number of saves within 80 of that.

-Counting the postseason, Rivera's career ERA as a reliever was 1.91. In 1310.2 innings over 1137 appearances. (That drops to 1.90 in 1318.2 innings over 1145 appearances if you throw in the All-Star Game, in which he pitched 8 times, 8 innings, allowing just 5 hits and a single unearned run).

-Rivera's career ERA+ (park-adjusted ERA compared to the league average) of 206 dwarfs the #2 pitcher on the list with at least 1000 innings (Pedro Martinez at 154) - yes, Rivera's career ERA, relative to the league, was 33% better than any other pitcher, ever, and twice as good as the league average. Only 4 other pitchers have career ERA+ above 200 in more than 40 career innings, and all four are young relievers still getting started (Craig Kimbrel, Johnny Venters, Andrew Bailey and Al Albuquerque). Rivera had 12 seasons of 60 or more innings with an ERA+ of 200 or better - second-most is a tie between Pedro and Joe Nathan with 5 apiece (Walter Johnson and Billy Wagner did it four times each). Rivera also ties Walter Johnson with the most seasons (11) of 60 or more innings with an ERA below 2.00, with three others (Hoyt Wilhelm, Cy Young and Grover Alexander) tied with 6 each.

-Rivera allowed 0.9 homers per 9 innings in 2009, the only time in 17 seasons after his rookie year he was above 0.6. He walked 3 men per 9 innings in 2000, the only time in those 17 seasons he was above 2.8 and only the second time he was above 2.5. He had a 3.15 ERA in 2007, the only time he was above 2.85 in those 17 seasons, and in 71.1 innings that year he allowed 4 home runs, struck out 74 batters and allowed 10 unintentional walks, so the ERA was mostly a fluke. That kind of consistency is just unreal.

-Rivera's average of 0.42 homers per 9 innings since 1996 is easily the lowest average in that period for pitchers with 1000 or more innings pitched in that stretch. Out of 167 pitchers, only 63 were below 1 homer per 9, 12 were below 0.75, and just 4 below 0.69: Rivera, Kevin Brown (0.56), Tim Lincecum (0.58) and Brandon Webb (0.63). Rivera did this while pitching in the American League straight through the heart of the power-mad steroid era. In the same time frame, he allowed the 11th fewest walks per 9, the 15th-most K/9, the 5th-best K/BB ratio, and - despite what was often a shaky Yankee middle infield defense - easily the lowest batting average on balls in play, .262 (only Matt Cain is below .270).

(If there was one area where Rivera's regular season record was pedestrian, partly reflecting the way he was used, it was with inherited runners - he allowed in 28.98% of such runners, 79th best among the 296 pitchers to make 400 or more relief appearances; Ricardo Rincon is the best at 18.96%, followed by Trevor Hoffman at 20.23%).

-Yankee Stadium did Rivera no favors: his career ERA was 2.46 at home, 1.95 on the road. Oddly, the home ERA breaks down as 2.61 in Yankee Stadium and 1.73 in New Yankee Stadium. Rivera had a 1.99 career ERA with Jorge Posada catching him, 1.94 with Joe Girardi.

[UPDATED: I looked a little more at the home/road splits. A little is due to bad outings at home as a rookie. A big split is 1999-2002 (home ERA 3.08, road ERA 1.83), as compared to 2009-12 (home ERA 1.73, road ERA 1.96). In 2005, Rivera had a 2.28 ERA at home, but a preposterous 0.26 ERA - one run in 34 appearances - on the road. Although Rivera's K/BB ratio at home has been an insane 94/10 in the new Stadium, the main distinction seems to be on balls in play: BABIP of .275 at old Yankee Stadium, .261 on road, .225 at the new Stadium. I wonder if the infield surfaces or grass have anything to do with that. I can't get a good fix on grass/turf or indoor/outdoor, but Rivera was at his deadliest in domed stadiums, regardless of whether the roof was up: a 1.07 ERA and 1 HR in 50.1 IP at Tropicana Field, a 1.30 ERA and 1 HR in 27.2 IP at the Metrodome, a 1.85 ERA in 43.2 IP at Skydome, a 2.19 ERA in 12.1 IP at the Kingdome, and a scoreless inning at the Tokyo Dome, for a total of a 1.47 ERA in 135 innings]
-Rivera allowed a home run to Reed Johnson last June in a game against the Cubs (he still got the save). That's noteworthy because Rivera pitched 40.1 career regular season innings against the NL Central and NL West, and that's the only earned run he allowed to either division.

-There was no good way to get Rivera. Opposing batters hit .201/.236/.281 against him when leading off an inning, .209/.270/.290 with men on base. Opposing hitters still hit .239 and slugged .346, both very weak figures (albeit with a .534 OBP) after getting three balls on Rivera. But he went to a 3-ball count only 698 times in 4752 batters faced for which baseball-reference.com has count breakdowns, less than 15% of the time, compared to 2591 times he got to two strikes on a batter. On a 3-2 count, opposing hitters hit .202/.403/.283.

-In 1990, his one season as a reliever in the minors before the Yankees tried to make him a starter, Rivera had a 0.17 ERA in rookie ball - in 52 innings he struck out 58, walked 7 and allowed 17 hits (2.9 hits per 9 innings). His career ERA in the minors was 2.35.

-As good as Rivera was in the regular season, he was rather literally twice as good in the postseason (twice the workload, half the ERA), and probably the most valuable postseason pitcher ever (maybe the most valuable postseason player ever). Anyone who says the Yankees can just slot in Rafael Soriano and David Robertson and not miss Rivera that much because closers are overrated is missing this crucial dimension.

The Yankees played 156 postseason games between 1995 and 2011, just about a full season's schedule of games. The postseason can be brutally unforgiving, as I noted when reviewing Billy Wagner's career, and normally it's a victory to play the same in October as you did all year. Rivera's now-apparently-final line in a season's worth of postseason work: 96 games, 141 innings (nobody's thrown 140 innings in relief in a regular season since Mark Eichhorn in 1986), 8-1 record (Game Seven of the 2001 World Series being his only loss), 42 saves, 78 games finished, 0.70 ERA (0.83 even if you include unearned runs), only two home runs allowed (the famous Sandy Alomar homer that decided the 1997 ALDS and Jay Payton's home run in the Mets' furious but futile comeback in Game Two of the 2000 World Series, the only time in 96 postseason appearances that Rivera allowed more than one earned run - he allowed 2), allowing just 86 hits, 21 walks (4 of those intentional; Rivera's 2 walks in the ill-fated Game Four of the 2004 ALCS was the only postseason appearance where he walked more than one batter), and striking out 110. Counting 3 hit batsmen, that's 111 baserunners in 141 innings, only one more than his strikeout total. Rivera pitched 2 or more innings in a postseason game 33 times, allowing a run in only 4 of them; he pitched more than 1 inning 58 times. In the postseason, his opposing BABIP dropped to .219, his inherited runners scored dropped to 19%. He'd actually gotten better; his postseason ERA since 2006 was 0.31 in 24 appearances. Rivera was ice in October. We will never see the like of that again. And he did it with a huge workload: you throw 141 high-leverage innings with a 0.70 ERA in the regular season, you should and will win the MVP award.

PS - Speaking of worthiness of respect, Stan Musial's wife Lil died yesterday. Stan and Lil were married 73 years. Now that is a life.

Part 6 of my now very belated "preseason" previews is the NL West; this is the last of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Notes and reference links on the EWSL method are below the fold; while EWSL is a simple enough method that will be familiar to long-time readers, it takes a little introductory explaining, so I'd suggest you check out the explanations first if you're new to these previews. Team ages are weighted by non-age-adjusted EWSL, so the best players count more towards determining the age of the roster.

Prior: AL Central, AL East, AL West, NL Central, NL East.

Some players are rated based on less than three seasons or given a rookie rating. Key:
+ (Rookie)
* (Based on one season)
# (Based on two seasons)

Arizona Diamondbacks

Raw EWSL: 236.50
Adjusted: 246.53
Age-Adj.: 239.48
WS Age: 28.9
2012 W-L: 93-69

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	28	Miguel Montero	20	20
1B	24	Paul Goldschmidt*	3	8
2B	30	Aaron Hill	14	13
SS	29	Stephen Drew	14	14
3B	31	Ryan Roberts	11	9
RF	24	Justin Upton	21	27
CF	28	Chris Young	18	18
LF	30	Jason Kubel	14	12
C2	40	Henry Blanco	4	2
INF	34	Willie Bloomquist	6	5
OF	25	Gerardo Parra	13	16
12	35	Lyle Overbay	10	7
13	37	John McDonald	5	3
SP1	27	Ian Kennedy	14	12
SP2	25	Daniel Hudson#	11	15
SP3	24	Trevor Cahill	11	12
SP4	31	Joe Saunders	10	8
SP5	26	Josh Collmenter*	5	11
RP1	35	JJ Putz	9	8
RP2	27	David Hernandez	8	7
RP3	32	Brad Ziegler	6	5
RP4	31	Craig Breslow	5	4
RP5	42	Takashi Saito	5	3

Subjective Adjustments: None, but I expect Goldschmidt to easily surpass 8 Win Shares if healthy.

Also on Hand: Position players - Geoff Blum, Cody Ransom (who has now played 10 years in the majors without once having 100 plate appearances), AJ Pollock.

Pitchers - Joe Paterson, who is off to about the worst possible start imaginable: Paterson allowed as many earned runs (11) in April as he did in 62 appearances all last year. In 2.2 innings he's faced 26 batters and allowed 18 baserunners (including 2 homers and 4 doubles), and he hasn't struck out a batter yet. Also Bryan Shaw, Jonathan Albaladejo, Wade Miley, Mike Zagurski, Joe Martinez, Patrick Corbin and Barry Enright.

Analysis: The D-Backs remain the class of this division based on established major league talent, and were the logical preseason favorites. Obviously, the Dodgers’ 4-game lead through May 2 could turn out to be decisive in the long run even if LA comes back to earth. Arizona has also been banged up early, including injuries to Hudson, Drew and Saito. Upton remains a very logical potential MVP candidate.

Henry Blanco is still playing at 40, Matt Treanor at 36, Brian Schneider at 35, Rod Barajas at 36, Dave Ross at 35, Jose Molina at 37. If you know young football players, advise them to consider catching as a career. A little talent, toughness and work ethic will give them a longer, happier career than a lot of NFL stars seem to have.

I haven't run the numbers, but the Diamondbacks have to have made the most trades involving the largest number of contributing major league players over the past 2 years or so.

San Francisco Giants

Raw EWSL: 209.00
Adjusted: 221.64
Age-Adj.: 213.06
WS Age: 28.9
2012 W-L: 84-78

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	25	Buster Posey#	11	16
1B	24	Brandon Belt*	3	7
2B	34	Freddy Sanchez	11	10
SS	25	Brandon Crawford*	3	6
3B	25	Pablo Sandoval	19	23
RF	28	Nate Schierholtz	10	10
CF	30	Angel Pagan	17	16
LF	27	Melky Cabrera	15	15
C2	22	Hector Sanchez+	0	4
INF	35	Aubrey Huff	17	12
OF	28	Gregor Blanco	2	2
12	32	Ryan Theriot	12	9
13	27	Emmanuel Burriss	1	1
SP1	28	Tim Lincecum	16	15
SP2	27	Matt Cain	16	14
SP3	22	Madison Bumgarner#	9	14
SP4	34	Barry Zito	4	3
SP5	34	Ryan Vogelsong	7	6
RP1	30	Brian Wilson	13	11
RP2	32	Santiago Casilla	7	5
RP3	33	Jeremy Affeldt	6	4
RP4	34	Javier Lopez	5	4
RP5	29	Sergio Romo	8	7

Subjective Adjustments: None, because I’m trying to avoid biasing the results with events since the season started, but clearly Brian Wilson will not be contributing to the Giants this season, and now Sandoval is out with a busted hand. Freddy Sanchez has also been hurt, and it’s not really clear whether he or Burriss ends up as the second baseman once Sanchez is healthy.

Also on Hand: Position players - Brett Pill, Joaquin Arias, Eli Whiteside.

Pitchers - Clay Hensley, Guillermo Mota, Dan Otero, Eric Hacker.

Analysis: As noted above, San Francisco's injuries make it a lot harder for the Giants to pick themselves off the mat. They have a lineup only Brian Sabean could love, despite the presence of three talented young bats (Sandoval, Posey and Belt). The outfield seems particularly symptomatic of a failure to learn anything from the Aaron Rowand signing. I needn't belabor the obvious point that Belt needs to be just stuck in the lineup until he figures things out; he batted .320/.461/.528 in the minors last season after .352/.455/.620 in 2010, but the Giants seem unwilling or unable to live with any growing pains.

As for the rotation, there's been a huge variation thus far in the batting average on balls in play vs various Giants pitchers, and their early successes and failures should seem a lot less dramatic as these even out over the course of the season; it's why I'm not so worried about Lincecum in particular, whose peripheral numbers are still solid:

PITCHER	BABIP
Dan Otero	0.452
Jeremy Affeldt	0.417
Guillermo Mota	0.367
Tim Lincecum	0.351
LEAGUE AVERAGE	0.295
Ryan Vogelsong	0.292
TEAM AVERAGE	0.277
Madison Bumgarner	0.245
Santiago Casilla	0.192
Clay Hensley	0.188
Barry Zito	0.188
Matt Cain	0.158

Los Angeles Dodgers

Raw EWSL: 204.67
Adjusted: 215.23
Age-Adj.: 200.51
WS Age: 30.2
2012 W-L: 80-82

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	31	AJ Ellis#	3	3
1B	28	James Loney	17	17
2B	35	Mark Ellis	13	9
SS	24	Dee Gordon*	6	8
3B	32	Juan Uribe	9	7
RF	30	Andre Ethier	20	18
CF	27	Matt Kemp	28	29
LF	29	Tony Gwynn jr	8	7
C2	36	Matt Treanor	4	3
INF	36	Adam Kennedy	8	6
OF	33	Juan Rivera	11	9
12	36	Jerry Hairston jr	11	8
13	26	Justin Sellers*	2	4
SP1	24	Clayton Kershaw	19	21
SP2	27	Chad Billingsley	8	7
SP3	33	Chris Capuano	4	2
SP4	36	Ted Lilly	10	9
SP5	34	Aaron Harang	6	4
RP1	26	Javy Guerra*	4	9
RP2	24	Kenley Jansen#	5	7
RP3	37	Jamey Wright	5	4
RP4	35	Mike MacDougal	4	3
RP5	33	Matt Guerrier	6	4

Subjective Adjustments: None, but as with Goldschmidt, you can assume a pretty high likelihood that Dee Gordon beats 8 Win Shares if he stays healthy all year.

Also on Hand: Position players - Ivan De Jesus jr, the third of the Dodgers’ junior brigade, and Jerry Sands.

Pitchers - Todd Coffey, Blake Hawkesworth, Josh Lindblom, Scott Elbert, Rubby de la Rosa (on the DL) and Ronald Belisario (same).

Analysis: The frontline talent is strong and in its prime, but the rest of the team is ancient and creaky. Obviously, banking on Matt Kemp to hit .411/.500/.856 all year is not a wager I would take. Kemp has now raised his career April line to .343/.405/.618; his .297/.354/.526 line in June is the only one even close. Color me unpersuaded that this is really a 90+ win team unless significant help is added to the roster.

The Dodgers' long-term prognosis, of course, is vastly improved by the end of the McCourt Era, in which - ironically - Frank McCourt proved unable to competently manage even the one part of the team he had experience running (parking lots).

Colorado Rockies

Raw EWSL: 181.83
Adjusted: 193.87
Age-Adj.: 177.50
WS Age: 30.6
2012 W-L: 72-90

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	36	Ramon Hernandez	11	8
1B	38	Todd Helton	13	9
2B	36	Marco Scutaro	14	10
SS	27	Troy Tulowitzki	25	26
3B	26	Chris Nelson*	1	2
RF	33	Michael Cuddyer	16	14
CF	26	Dexter Fowler	15	16
LF	26	Carlos Gonzalez	20	22
C2	23	Wilin Rosario+	1	4
INF	27	Jonathan Herrera#	4	4
OF	26	Tyler Colvin#	4	5
12	27	Eric Young	3	3
13	41	Jason Giambi	6	3
SP1	24	Jhoulys Chacin#	9	13
SP2	49	Jamie Moyer	2	1
SP3	25	Juan Nicasio*	2	4
SP4	33	Jeremy Guthrie	10	7
SP5	31	Jorge de la Rosa	7	5
RP1	37	Rafael Betancourt	9	7
RP2	32	Matt Belisle	7	6
RP3	27	Matt Reynolds#	2	2
RP4	29	Josh Roenicke	1	1
RP5	24	Rex Brothers*	2	5

Subjective Adjustments: None. Jorge de la Rosa is expected back in June and will be welcomed by a tattered rotation, but his numbers reflect his injury last season

Also on Hand: Position players - Jordan Pacheco, Eliezer Alfonzo, Hector Gomez.

Pitchers - Drew Pomeranz, who is presently the third or fourth starter pending the return of de la Rosa and Guthrie (also Chacin, just sent to AAA), Tyler Chatwood, Esmil Rogers, Guillermo Moscoso, Edgmer Escalona, Zach Putnam, Josh Outman.

Analysis: I've had a lot of fun on Twitter doing "how old is Jamie Moyer" facts (eg, he was the second-oldest player on the Mariners when he arrived in Seattle in August 1996), but the amazing thing is how dependent the Rockies have been on Moyer. His 3.14 ERA is deceptively low given the unearned runs he's allowed and a low BABIP, but he's basically the same old Moyer, which is a valuable thing on a team in Coors Field with terrible pitching.

A further retrospective on the careers of Moyer, Helton and Giambi is something I should return to later.

San Diego Padres

Raw EWSL: 159.67
Adjusted: 178.57
Age-Adj.: 172.33
WS Age: 28.7
2012 W-L: 71-91

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	28	Nick Hundley	11	11
1B	25	Yonder Alonso*	2	5
2B	34	Orlando Hudson	15	13
SS	32	Jason Bartlett	15	12
3B	28	Chase Headley	16	16
RF	29	Will Venable	12	12
CF	25	Cameron Maybin	12	14
LF	29	Carlos Quentin	14	14
C2	31	John Baker	3	2
INF	26	Andy Parrino+	0	4
OF	28	Jesus Guzman*	7	13
12	31	Chris Denorfia	7	6
13	28	Jeremy Hermida	4	4
SP1	28	Ednison Volquez	1	1
SP2	28	Clayton Richard	6	5
SP3	27	Cory Luebke*	4	6
SP4	30	Tim Stauffer	7	6
SP5	24	Anthony Bass*	3	6
RP1	28	Huston Street	9	8
RP2	26	Ernesto Frieri#	3	4
RP3	28	Luke Gregerson	6	5
RP4	25	Andrew Cashner#	1	2
RP5	29	Micah Owings	4	3

Subjective Adjustments: None, but again, I expect Alonso to step up with full-time playing time.

Also on Hand: Position players - Kyle Blanks (now out for the season), Mark Kotsay, Blake Tekotte, Logan Forsythe.

Pitchers - Joe Thatcher, Joe Wieland (presently in the rotation), Josh Spence, Brad Brach, Dale Thayer, Jeff Suppan (recently exhumed from the minors - he's now in his 20th professional season. He's also 13 years younger than Moyer), Dustin Moseley (out for the season).

Analysis: What's worse - that the Padres are hitting .216/.302/.331 as a team, or that that doesn't even make them the lowest-scoring team in the league (the Pirates are scoring almost half a run per game less)? Yet, the lineup (partly due to a number of good glove men) isn't full of untalented guys, so much as it lacks anybody with star-level talent, plus the big bat (Quentin) hasn't played yet, with Guzman subbing for him. It's actually the rotation, which the park makes look respectable, that's really weak, and the bullpen is less impressive as well than it seems.

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Part 5 of my now very belated "preseason" previews is the NL East; this is the fifth of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Notes and reference links on the EWSL method are below the fold; while EWSL is a simple enough method that will be familiar to long-time readers, it takes a little introductory explaining, so I'd suggest you check out the explanations first if you're new to these previews. Team ages are weighted by non-age-adjusted EWSL, so the best players count more towards determining the age of the roster.

Prior: AL Central, AL East, AL West, NL Central.

Some players are rated based on less than three seasons or given a rookie rating. Key:
+ (Rookie)
* (Based on one season)
# (Based on two seasons)

Atlanta Braves

Raw EWSL: 215.17
Adjusted: 248.24
Age-Adj.: 260.94
Subj. Adj.: 257.94
WS Age: 28.6
2012 W-L: 99-63

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	28	Brian McCann	21	21
1B	22	Freddie Freeman*	10	34
2B	32	Dan Uggla	22	17
SS	22	Tyler Pastornicky+	0	11
3B	40	Chipper Jones	17	9
RF	22	Jason Heyward#	13	28
CF	29	Michael Bourn	20	20
LF	28	Martin Prado	15	15
C2	35	Dave Ross	7	5
INF	34	Jack Wilson	6	5
OF	34	Matt Diaz	6	5
12	34	Eric Hinske	6	5
13	28	Jose Constanza*	2	3
SP1	25	Tommy Hanson	10	11
SP2	25	Brandon Beachy*	4	8
SP3	26	Jair Jurrjens	10	11
SP4	36	Tim Hudson	14	13
SP5	22	Randall Delgado*	1	3
RP1	24	Craig Kimbrel#	10	13
RP2	27	Johnny Venters#	11	11
RP3	27	Eric O'Flaherty	8	7
RP4	26	Kris Medlen	3	3
RP5	24	Mike Minor#	2	2

Subjective Adjustments: I docked Freddie Freeman 3 Win Shares, down from 34 to 31, and that still seems conservative. Is Freddie Freeman really a reasonable bet to be better than Joey Votto in 2012? That's where EWSL has him, on grounds of being 22 and coming off a 19 Win Shares season. You have to admit, Freeman's batting line looks a lot more impressive when you account for his age...but still. Really?

On the other hand, I refuse to adjust Jason Heyward, the team's other 22-year-old regular, downwards from 28 Win Shares. I can totally see that happening.

Also on Hand: Position players - Juan Francisco, who subbed as the everyday 3B until Chipper was ready to go, and likely will again the next time Chipper gets chipped.

Pitchers - Chad Durbin, Livan Hernandez, and two injured pitchers, Robert Fish and Arodys Vizcaino.

Analysis: EWSL is out on a limb here because 22 year old hitters are its weakness, but the Braves are potentially loaded. They fit the classic profile of a team ready to rip the ears off the division, like the 1986 Mets or the 1984 Tigers: a young team with a few key veretans that had a couple of tough endings and is starting to get written off, but could suddenly gel and hit the stratosphere. The tough part is how cutthroat this division is, but maybe no moreso than the AL East in 1984.

Note that this is the second year in a row that EWSL had the Braves winning the division.

Philadelphia Phillies

Raw EWSL: 285.67
Adjusted: 293.00
Age-Adj.: 247.33
WS Age: 32.0
2012 W-L: 96-66

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	33	Carlos Ruiz	18	15
1B	32	Ryan Howard	22	17
2B	33	Chase Utley	23	19
SS	33	Jimmy Rollins	20	17
3B	36	Placido Polanco	16	12
RF	29	Hunter Pence	22	21
CF	31	Shane Victorino	23	19
LF	34	Juan Pierre	14	12
C2	35	Brian Schneider	3	2
INF	34	Ty Wigginton	5	5
OF	31	Laynce Nix	6	5
12	28	John Mayberry	6	6
13	41	Jim Thome	13	7
SP1	35	Roy Halladay	23	19
SP2	33	Cliff Lee	19	13
SP3	28	Cole Hamels	16	15
SP4	24	Vance Worley*	6	12
SP5	31	Joe Blanton	4	3
RP1	31	Jonathan Papelbon	12	9
RP2	33	Chad Qualls	4	3
RP3	27	Kyle Kendrick	6	5
RP4	26	Antonio Bastardo	5	6
RP5	25	Michael Stutes*	3	6

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Pete Orr, Freddy Galvis.

Pitchers - Joe Savery, Jose Contreras, Brian Sanches, David Herndon, Michael Schwimer.

Analysis: After threatening for years, the piper has come to Philadelphia, and he will be paid. 32 year old Ryan Howard, 33 year old Chase Utley, and 33 year old Cliff Lee are all on the DL. Almost as old as the Yankees, this team is: outside of Worley and the bullpen, the "kids" are 28 year old Cole Hamels and 29 year old Hunter Pence. For all of that, this team won't go down easy: before the age adjustments, this is a 111-win team, so even when you discount them for age, they are still knocking on the door of triple digits. And if you draw a healthy Halladay, Lee and Hamels in a short series, you're still in deep yogurt; there has maybe never been a more skillful pitching staff assembled.

Miami Marlins

Raw EWSL: 215.50
Adjusted: 226.27
Age-Adj.: 227.44
WS Age: 28.6
2012 W-L: 89-73

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	31	John Buck	14	11
1B	28	Gaby Sanchez#	14	17
2B	30	Omar Infante	17	15
SS	29	Jose Reyes	20	19
3B	28	Hanley Ramirez	18	18
RF	22	Giancarlo Stanton#	14	30
CF	27	Emilio Bonifacio	13	14
LF	24	Logan Morrison#	9	13
C2	28	Brett Hayes#	2	3
INF	33	Greg Dobbs	4	4
OF	27	Chris Coghlan	8	9
12	29	Donnie Murphy	2	1
13	32	Austin Kearns	4	3
SP1	28	Josh Johnson	12	11
SP2	33	Mark Buehrle	14	10
SP3	28	Anibal Sanchez	10	9
SP4	29	Ricky Nolasco	6	5
SP5	31	Carlos Zambrano	8	7
RP1	34	Heath Bell	13	10
RP2	28	Edward Mujica	6	6
RP3	27	Mike Dunn#	3	3
RP4	26	Ryan Webb	4	4
RP5	26	Steve Cishek*	3	7

Subjective Adjustments: None; I haven't downgraded Stanton for the same reason as Heyward. This season has a bumper crop of 22-year-olds who will put EWSL's age adjustment to the test: Heyward, Stanton, Freeman, Eric Hosmer, Brett Lawrie, Starlin Castro, Ruben Tejada, and Jose Altuve. Note that, as usual, that group is split between guys whose playing time is stepping up to full time (Lawrie, Hosmer, Altuve, Tejada) and those who were already everyday for a full season (Heyward, Castro, Stanton, Freeman). It's the inevitable growth of the former group that tends to artificially over-project the latter. The effect is most pronounced on 22 year olds because guys who are playing everyday at 21 or 22 tend to be really good.

Also on Hand: Position players - Scott Cousins.

Pitchers - Randy Choate, Chad Gaudin, the potentially ineligible Juan Oviedo (f/k/a Leo Nunez), the injured Jose Ceda.

Analysis: If you can buy this as a third-place team, you see how deep this division is now.

Jose Reyes gets more attention, as does the Miami Medusa in center field that goes off when the Marlins hit a home run:

But the most interesting issue to watch is whether Hanley Ramirez, now batting .236/.330/.381 since the start of 2011, can bounce back. Also, whether Giancarlo (don't call me Mike) Stanton's prodigious power will be held back by the new stadium's cavernous dimensions. So far, so good from the team's perspective - the Marlins have hit 9 homers at home, 9 on the road, compared to allowing 4 at home and 12 on the road, and Stanton's lone longball this season came at home - but he's started slowly overall.

Washington Nationals

Raw EWSL: 185.17
Adjusted: 195.33
Age-Adj.: 195.34
WS Age: 28.2
2012 W-L: 78-84

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	24	Wilson Ramos#	8	12
1B	32	Adam LaRoche	9	7
2B	25	Danny Espinosa#	12	18
SS	26	Ian Desmond#	12	15
3B	27	Ryan Zimmerman	19	20
RF	33	Jayson Werth	20	17
CF	32	Rick Ankiel	6	5
LF	33	Xavier Nady	4	3
C2	27	Jesus Flores	1	1
INF	30	Michael Morse	16	14
OF	28	Roger Bernadina#	7	8
12	37	Mark DeRosa	4	3
13	32	Chad Tracy	1	1
SP1	23	Stephen Strasburg#	3	4
SP2	26	Jordan Zimmermann	6	7
SP3	28	Edwin Jackson	12	11
SP4	26	Gio Gonzalez	13	14
SP5	26	Ross Detwiler	2	3
RP1	35	Brad Lidge	4	3
RP2	25	Henry Rodriguez#	2	3
RP3	27	Tyler Clippard	10	9
RP4	24	Drew Storen#	9	12
RP5	29	Sean Burnett	6	5

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Wunderkind Bryce Harper, Mark Teahen, Brett Carroll, Steve Lombardozzi (the younger one), Tyler Moore.

Pitchers - Tom Gorzelanny, Craig Stammen, Ryan Mattheus, Chien-Ming Wang.

Analysis: The "K Street" Nationals' hot start has brought back memories of Davey Johnson teams of yore; four starters have ERAs in the ones, three relievers have ERAs ranging from 0.00 to 2.00, and the team is averaging 8.7 K/9. And they're not really kids, either - Strasburg is already a Tommy John surgery veteran, and he and Henry Rodriguez are the only guys on the staff under 26. For a team that in its seven prior years in DC finished 16th in the NL in pitcher strikeouts twice, 15th three times, 13th once and as high as 10th only in its inaugural season, this is revolutionary. For the first time, it will actually be the offense that has to carry the ball.

Bryce Harper may well be a superstar in the making, but he's closer in age to Justin Bieber than he is to Strasburg. Harper was 8 years old on 9/11. When he was born, Jamie Moyer was mulling a coaching job offer from the Cubs, his MLB pitching career widely considered over. In other words: don't expect too much too soon. Harper reached the majors without slugging over .400 above A ball. There are 72 players (including a few pitchers and managers) in the Hall of Fame who had 200 or more plate appearances their first season in the majors; only 18 of those 72 slugged above .450, and only 11 of those were 22 or younger, the youngest being age 20; the highest among the teenagers was Mickey Mantle at .443 (Mel Ott is the only Hall of Famer to slug .450 as a teenager - .524 as a 19 year old in 1928 - and Ott wasn't a rookie, having 241 plate appearances over the prior two seasons). Barry Bonds hit .223/.330/.416 as a rookie.

New York Mets

Raw EWSL: 162.50
Adjusted: 185.94
Age-Adj.: 183.04
WS Age: 29.3
2012 W-L: 74-88

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	25	Josh Thole#	8	10
1B	25	Ike Davis#	8	12
2B	27	Daniel Murphy	9	9
SS	22	Ruben Tejada#	6	13
3B	29	David Wright	18	18
RF	26	Lucas Duda*	6	12
CF	34	Andres Torres	14	12
LF	33	Jason Bay	14	12
C2	29	Mike Nickeas*	1	1
INF	27	Justin Turner*	8	16
OF	32	Scott Hairston	6	4
12	29	Ronny Cedeno	9	9
13	24	Kirk Nieuwenhuis+	0	4
SP1	33	Johan Santana	7	5
SP2	37	RA Dickey	11	9
SP3	25	Jonathan Niese#	4	5
SP4	26	Dillon Gee*	4	6
SP5	28	Mike Pelfrey	6	6
RP1	32	Frank Francisco	7	5
RP2	27	Bobby Parnell	3	3
RP3	33	Jon Rauch	6	4
RP4	30	Ramon Ramirez	7	6
RP5	38	Tim Byrdak	3	2

Subjective Adjustments: None; I'm trying to keep these limited to preseason rankings, so I did not dock Mike Pelfrey.

Also on Hand: Position players - Mike Baxter (I could have rated him in the same place as Niewenhuis, but Niewenhuis is likely the guy I'll be rating down the road), Zach Lutz, Jordany Valdespin, Brad Emaus, Freddie Lewis.

Pitchers - Miguel Batista, Manny Acosta, Pedro Beato, DJ Carrasco, Chris Schwinden, Jeremy Hefner.

Analysis: The Mets, realistically, are not aiming for a first place finish this season, but for .500 and respectability. And maybe not last place, which will require one of the other competitors here to have a very disappointing year. The main thing that needs to happen, for that to occur, is to keep the front four of the rotation healthy (Mike Pelfrey is headed for season-ending Tommy John surgery today), as well as Wright and Davis; some of the youngsters also need to step up, as Tejada, Thole and Nieuwenhuis have so far (I admit, I never expected Tejada to be a major league hitter). Santana, of course, has been miraculous, averaging over 10 K/9 for the first time since his first Cy Young season in 2004 and not having yet allowed a home run. The lesson is never bet against great pitchers - but also, be cautious, as I can recall Dwight Gooden having some outstanding stretches in the years after shoulder surgery, but never again sustaining it over a full season.

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Part 4 of my now very belated "preseason" previews is the NL Central; this is the fourth of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Notes and reference links on the EWSL method are below the fold; while EWSL is a simple enough method that will be familiar to long-time readers, it takes a little introductory explaining, so I'd suggest you check out the explanations first if you're new to these previews. Team ages are weighted by non-age-adjusted EWSL, so the best players count more towards determining the age of the roster.

Prior: AL Central, AL East, AL West.

Some players are rated based on less than three seasons or given a rookie rating. Key:
+ (Rookie)
* (Based on one season)
# (Based on two seasons)

Cincinnati Reds

Raw EWSL: 210.83
Adjusted: 228.84
Age-Adj.: 218.03
WS Age: 29.1
2012 W-L: 86-76

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	31	Ryan Hanigan	11	9
1B	28	Joey Votto	32	32
2B	31	Brandon Phillips	20	17
SS	26	Zack Cozart+	1	11
3B	37	Scott Rolen	11	7
RF	25	Jay Bruce	18	21
CF	27	Drew Stubbs	13	14
LF	33	Ryan Ludwick	15	13
C2	24	Devin Mesoraco+	1	4
INF	34	Wilson Valdez	8	7
OF	27	Chris Heisey#	5	7
12	34	Willie Harris	5	5
13	38	Miguel Cairo	6	4
SP1	35	Bronson Arroyo	8	7
SP2	26	Johnny Cueto	11	12
SP3	24	Mike Leake#	7	9
SP4	26	Homer Bailey	5	6
SP5	24	Mat Latos	9	10
RP1	24	Aroldis Chapman*	3	5
RP2	29	Sean Marshall	10	8
RP3	29	Bill Bray	3	3
RP4	27	Logan Ondusek#	4	4
RP5	30	Nick Masset	6	5

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Paul Janish, Billy Hamilton.

Pitchers - Alfredo Simon, Jose Arredondo, Ryan Madson (out for the season).

Analysis: The NL Central often looks weaker before the season than it does as the year progresses, but times have changed; Tony LaRussa, Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder are all gone, leaving the division short on anchors. That gives the Reds, who unlike their rivals managed to retain star 1B Joey Votto, a competitive advantage. Add in a rotation that could be stable if Johnny Cueto stays healthy and the usual Reds young, athletic outfield, and this team should be in any mix that emerges in this division.

Hamilton thus far is batting .381/.470/.583 and has already stolen 28 bases in A ball, although his suspect defense may slow his ascent.

Milwaukee Brewers

Raw EWSL: 227.50
Adjusted: 232.08
Age-Adj.: 212.81
WS Age: 29.9
2012 W-L: 84-78

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	26	Jonathan Lucroy#	9	12
1B	26	Mat Gamel	1	1
2B	29	Rickie Weeks	20	19
SS	35	Alex Gonzalez	14	10
3B	34	Aramis Ramirez	19	17
RF	30	Corey Hart	18	16
CF	31	Nyjer Morgan	14	11
LF	28	Ryan Braun	33	33
C2	29	George Kottaras	4	3
INF	28	Travis Ishikawa	3	3
OF	26	Carlos Gomez	6	6
12	30	Norichika Aoki+	0	1
13	32	Cesar Izturis	4	3
SP1	26	Yovanni Gallardo	12	13
SP2	28	Zack Greinke	13	12
SP3	30	Shawn Marcum	11	9
SP4	35	Randy Wolf	11	9
SP5	30	Chris Narveson	6	5
RP1	29	John Axford#	11	12
RP2	30	Francisco Rodriguez	10	9
RP3	30	Kameron Loe	4	4
RP4	29	Manny Parra	1	1
RP5	31	Jose Veras	4	3

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position Players - Brooks Conrad.

Pitchers - Marco Estrada, who is off to an excellent start; Tim Dillard.

Analysis: The whiz heard round the world: Ryan Braun missing 50 games would have been a really horrible blow to this team after losing Fielder. With him, the Brewers' rotation gives them a fighting chance. Note that an unbalanced schedule against this large, weak division, especially the Astros, should make the rest of the NL Central teams look deceptively stronger than they are.

World Champion St. Louis Cardinals

Raw EWSL: 208.67
Adjusted: 223.91
Age-Adj.: 199.17
WS Age: 31.0
2012 W-L: 80-82

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	29	Yadier Molina	18	17
1B	36	Lance Berkman	23	17
2B	32	Skip Schumaker	13	11
SS	34	Rafael Furcal	13	11
3B	29	David Freese	9	9
RF	35	Carlos Beltran	18	13
CF	27	Jon Jay#	9	12
LF	32	Matt Holliday	23	18
C2	25	Tony Cruz*	1	2
INF	25	Daniel Descalso*	5	12
OF	27	Allen Craig#	6	7
12	28	Tyler Greene	2	2
13	26	Matt Carpenter+	0	4
SP1	37	Chris Carpenter	14	11
SP2	30	Adam Wainwright	10	9
SP3	25	Jaime Garcia#	8	10
SP4	34	Jake Westbrook	5	4
SP5	33	Kyle Lohse	5	4
RP1	30	Jason Motte	7	6
RP2	28	Mitchell Boggs	3	3
RP3	27	Fernando Salas#	6	7
RP4	28	Kyle McClellan	6	6
RP5	26	Marc Rzepcynski	4	4

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Shane Robinson, Erik Komatsu.

Pitchers - Lance Lynn (I have him here because this was his preseason slot; he's been a surprising early star in the rotation), JC Romero, Victor Marte, Scott Linebrink (injured).

Analysis: The hulking sinkerballer Lynn has really been a huge help in Carpenter's early absence and with Wainwright struggling (0-3, 7.32 ERA), and the team's 14-7 record (16-5 Pythagorean record) suggests that the Cards could yet again pull an upside surprise if the antique trio of Beltran, Furcal and Berkman can stay healthy (Berkman's already on the DL). Then again, history suggests that a 1.62 ERA from Lohse, a 1.30 ERA from Westbrook and a .620 slugging average from Yadier Molina may be a tall order to sustain.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Raw EWSL: 168.00
Adjusted: 185.37
Age-Adj.: 182.65
WS Age: 28.5
2012 W-L: 74-88

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	36	Rod Barajas	10	8
1B	31	Garrett Jones	12	10
2B	26	Neil Walker#	15	20
SS	33	Clint Barmes	11	9
3B	29	Casey McGehee	16	15
RF	23	Jose Tabata#	9	13
CF	25	Andrew McCutchen	24	29
LF	26	Alex Presley*	4	9
C2	27	Michael McKendry*	1	2
INF	25	Pedro Alvarez#	6	9
OF	30	Nate McLouth	9	8
12	24	Josh Harrison*	3	7
13	26	Matt Hague+	0	4
SP1	33	Erik Bedard	4	3
SP2	27	James McDonald	5	4
SP3	29	Jeff Karstens	6	5
SP4	28	Charlie Morton	5	4
SP5	31	Kevin Corriea	4	3
RP1	30	Joel Hanrahan	10	9
RP2	29	Chris Resop	3	2
RP3	29	Evan Meek	4	4
RP4	33	Juan Cruz	2	1
RP5	35	AJ Burnett	6	5

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Yamaico Navarro

Pitchers - Jason Grilli, Jared Hughes, Tony Watson, Daniel McCutchen, Doug Slaten.

Analysis: Things are looking up in Pittsburgh, for a certain value of "up" compared to 19 consecutive losing seasons. Sad as it sounds, the Pirates' 75 wins in 2003 was their only trip above 72 victories since 1999; this team has a fighting chance to top that. I would hesitate to project more.

Chicago Cubs

Raw EWSL: 156.00
Adjusted: 174.18
Age-Adj.: 175.23
SUbj. Adj.: 169.23
WS Age: 29.6
2012 W-L: 70-92

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	29	Geovany Soto	11	11
1B	29	Bryan LaHair+	1	11
2B	26	Darwin Barney#	7	10
SS	22	Starlin Castro#	17	35
3B	27	Ian Stewart	5	5
RF	32	David DeJesus	10	8
CF	34	Marlon Byrd	14	12
LF	36	Alfonso Soriano	12	9
C2	26	Steve Clevenger+	0	4
INF	31	Jeff Baker	4	3
OF	35	Reed Johnson	6	4
12	29	Joe Mather	1	1
13	26	Blake DeWitt	8	8
SP1	28	Matt Garza	10	10
SP2	35	Ryan Dempster	9	7
SP3	27	Jeff Samardzjia	4	3
SP4	25	Chris Volstad	4	4
SP5	30	Paul Maholm	6	5
RP1	29	Carlos Marmol	11	10
RP2	35	Kerry Wood	4	4
RP3	36	Shawn Camp	5	5
RP4	26	James Russell#	1	1
RP5	29	Randy Wells	7	6

Subjective Adjustments: I cut Starlin Castro from 35 Win Shares to 29, for the usual reason that EWSL over-projects 22-year-old everyday shortstops whose value is heavily in their glove.

Also on Hand: Pitchers - Casey Coleman, Rodrigo Lopez, Rafael Davis, Lendy Castillo, Scott Maine.

Analysis: In the optimist's case, this is probably the season that provides the "how bad they were" backdrop for a later turnaround by Theo Epstein. I'd rather owe $54.5 million to Johan Santana than $54 million to Alfonso Soriano...the interesting question for an aggressive new GM is whether you could get a good package for Castro, or whether you retain him as the core building block. He's going to be one of the most valuable fantasy players in baseball over the next five years, but the debate is whether he's actually good enough defensively, and likely to survive his rough plate discipline, to match his perceived value. I don't know that I'd bet against a 22 year old shortstop with his gifts, though. He's batting .337 and leading the NL in steals at the moment.

Another guy who looks like he may finally be figuring things out is Jeff Samardzija, with a 25/8 K/BB ratio and just one HR allowed in 24 innings.

Houston Astros

Raw EWSL: 96.17
Adjusted: 113.76
Age-Adj.: 105.61
WS Age: 29.4
2012 W-L: 48-114

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	25	Jason Castro#	1	2
1B	36	Carlos Lee	17	12
2B	22	Jose Altuve*	1	4
SS	28	Jed Lowrie	5	5
3B	27	Chris Johnson#	9	11
RF	28	Brian Bogusevic*	2	4
CF	25	Jordan Schafer	4	5
LF	24	JD Martinez*	3	8
C2	31	Chris Snyder	6	5
INF	23	Marwin Gonzalez+	0	4
OF	28	Travis Buck	2	2
12	29	Brian Bixler	0	0
13	28	Justin Maxwell	1	1
SP1	33	Wandy Rodriguez	11	8
SP2	27	Bud Norris	5	4
SP3	29	JA Happ	5	4
SP4	27	Lucas Harrell#	0	0
SP5	25	Kyle Weiland+	0	4
RP1	31	Brett Myers	9	7
RP2	28	Wilton Lopez	5	5
RP3	28	Fernando Rodriguez*	2	2
RP4	26	David Carpenter*	1	2
RP5	32	Brandon Lyon	7	5

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Brett Wallace, Landon Powell, Angel Sanchez.

Pitchers - Wesley Wright, Fernando Abad, Rhiner Cruz, Enerio del Rosario.

Analysis: No, that 48-114 record is not a typo; measured by ESWL, the Astros enter 2012 as the worst, or at least weakest, team since I started doing this in 2004.

The optimist's case is that the Astros are this weak, not because they have a collection of players who have proven they can't play in the majors, but mostly because they have a collection of players who haven't proven they can play in the majors. That can sometimes yield surprises; the diminutive (5'5") young (22) Jose Altuve, who hit .276 .297 .357 in Houston after hitting .408/.451/.606 in A ball and .361/.388/.569 in AA last season, is batting .359/.407/.551 so far; with his small stature, youth and compact swing, Altuve could well turn out to be a star, or he could be Jose Lopez, or he could be a little of both, like Carlos Baerga. Other youngsters could emerge as well, given enough playing time, although few of the others in the Houston lineup or rotation have an upside similar to Altuve's.

But this is guaranteed to be a terrible team, one that will likely get worse before it gets better if the team can find takers for even a portion of Brett Myers' and Carlos Lee's contracts (Myers has one more year remaining, Lee's done after this season).

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Sometimes, in retrospect, the answer is obvious. The Seattle Mariners of the late 1990s were one of the most talent-loaded teams in baseball history in terms of front-line stars: four immortals (Ken Griffey, Alex Rodriguez, Randy Johnson, and Edgar Martinez) one significant star (Jay Buhner) and a couple of productive regulars (Jeff Fassero, Jamie Moyer, Paul Sorrento). Yet from 1996-2000, they made it out of the first round of the playoffs only once (losing the ALCS in 2000), and posted two losing records. Only when Griffey, A-Rod and Johnson were all gone (along with Fassero and Sorrento) and Buhner finished would the team build a 116-win juggernaut in 2001, in part with the pieces acquired for Johnson and Griffey.

Injuries were part of that story (Randy Johnson started just 8 games in 1996, Buhner missed half the season in 1998 and again in 1999), the pitching was chronically thin, especially the bullpen behind the likes of Heathcliff Slocumb, and of course a two-year run of epic bad trades that stripped the team of both young stars and useful role players:

December 1995:

Traded Tino Martinez, Jim Mecir and Jeff Nelson to the New York Yankees. Received Russ Davis and Sterling Hitchcock.

Traded Miguel Cairo and Bill Risley to the Toronto Blue Jays. Received Edwin Hurtado and Paul Menhart.

August 1996:

Traded a player to be named later to the Minnesota Twins. Received Dave Hollins. The Seattle Mariners sent David Ortiz (September 13, 1996) to the Minnesota Twins to complete the trade.

December 1996:

Traded Sterling Hitchcock to the San Diego Padres. Received Scott Sanders.

July 1997:

Traded Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek to the Boston Red Sox. Received Heathcliff Slocumb.

Traded Jose Cruz to the Toronto Blue Jays. Received Paul Spoljaric and Mike Timlin.

August 1997:

Traded players to be named later to the Minnesota Twins. Received Roberto Kelly. The Seattle Mariners sent Joe Mays (October 9, 1997) and Jeromy Palki (minors) (October 9, 1997) to the Minnesota Twins to complete the trade.

But one of the underrated flaws of that team, in retrospect, was the failure to give a longer shot to a talented young player moldering on the team's bench. Raul Ibanez in 1996 was 24 years old and coming off an age 22 season batting .312/.375/.486 and age 23 season batting .332/.395/.612 in A ball. Over the five seasons that followed - age 24-28, the years that should have been his major league prime - Ibanez would be given 518 plate appearances with the Mariners, just over 100 a year, before leaving for the Royals as a free agent. Ibanez, of course, would go on to stardom with the Royals (he drove in 103 runs in 2002) and return as a free agent after three years there. From age 30-37, Ibanez would bat .290/.351/.489, averaging 97 RBI a year. He's still playing at 40; at last check, he's slugging .500 and on pace to drive in 99 runs, although it's early yet.

To be fair, Ibanez didn't distinguish himself in his cups of coffee, batting just .241/.295/.383. He would bat .297/.364/.447 and .304/.349/.498 in 1996-97, mostly at AAA Tacoma, and struggle to a .216/.301/.363 line in a half-season's work in 1998 before spending most of the rest of the period with the big club.

Still, you have to wonder how much worse the Mariners would have done if they'd just slapped Ibanez (or Cruz, for that matter) into the big league lineup in 1996 and left him there to work through the learning curve. Here's how the team's endless revolving door of left fielders (including Ibanez as well as Cruz, Rickey Henderson, Stan Javier, Al Martin, Mark McLemore, Brian Hunter, Butch Huskey, John Mabry, Glenallen Hill, Shane Monahan, Rich Amaral, Rob Ducey, Lee Tinsley, Roberto Kelly, Mark Whiten, Darren Bragg, and Alex Diaz) hit over those five seasons:

Year	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	GDP	Avg	OBP	SLG	OPS+
1996	697	608	155	25	4	23	103	76	67	121	20	7	9	.255	.336	.423	85
1997	665	612	164	34	4	24	84	78	41	133	16	5	13	.268	.314	.454	97
1998	651	608	168	40	4	17	76	76	33	127	10	4	15	.276	.315	.439	91
1999	712	658	158	15	5	12	96	64	41	111	42	7	12	.240	.281	.333	52
2000	762	645	164	23	6	11	117	59	103	108	42	14	12	.254	.356	.360	74
Avg	697	626	162	27	5	17	95	71	57	120	26	7	12	.258	.321	.400	79

(The walks column makes it pretty apparent when Rickey hit town).

Even the 2001 team never really solved the LF problem, splitting time among Martin, McLemore and Javier (combined LF batting line: .256/.350/.364, although they probably contributed more to the team's historically effective team defense than Ibanez would have), and adding Ruben Sierra and Willie Bloomquist to the mix in 2002 (combined LF batting line: .277/.365/.424) before giving the job to Randy Winn in 2003, then shifting Winn to center to finally install Ibanez in 2004.

Ted Berg brings us the Small Sample Size Song:

Part 3 of my preseason previews is the AL West; this is the third of six division "previews," using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Notes and reference links on the EWSL method are below the fold; while EWSL is a simple enough method that will be familiar to long-time readers, it takes a little introductory explaining, so I'd suggest you check out the explanations first if you're new to these previews. Team ages are weighted by non-age-adjusted EWSL, so the best players count more towards determining the age of the roster.

Prior: AL Central, AL East.

Some players are rated based on less than three seasons or given a rookie rating. Key:
+ (Rookie)
* (Based on one season)
# (Based on two seasons)

The Anaheim California-Based Los Angeles California Angels of Anaheim

Raw EWSL: 273.50
Adjusted: 285.03
Age-Adj.: 252.76
WS Age: 30.9
2012 W-L: 97-65

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	29	Chris Iannetta	11	10
1B	32	Albert Pujols	30	24
2B	28	Howie Kendrick	18	18
SS	28	Erick Aybar	16	16
3B	29	Alberto Callaspo	15	15
RF	36	Torii Hunter	20	14
CF	25	Peter Bourjous#	9	13
LF	33	Vernon Wells	13	11
DH	29	Kendry Morales	7	6
C2	29	Bobby Wilson#	2	2
INF	26	Mark Trumbo*	7	15
OF	38	Bobby Abreu	18	12
13	31	Macier Izturis	12	10
SP1	29	Jered Weaver	21	18
SP2	31	Danny Haren	17	13
SP3	31	CJ Wilson	17	13
SP4	29	Ervin Santana	13	11
SP5	30	Jerome Williams	2	1
RP1	24	Jordan Walden#	6	8
RP2	36	Scott Downs	9	8
RP3	37	Hisanori Takahashi	7	5
RP4	39	LaTroy Hawkins	5	4
RP5	27	Kevin Jepsen	2	2

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Hank Conger, Alexi Amarista, Ryan Langerhans, and - arriving sooner or later, and off to a hot start in AAA - outfield super-prospect Mike Trout.

Pitchers - Jason Isringhausen, who despite not being listed here is more or less in the closer mix, given the wobbly Walden.

Analysis: This team is the very picture of depth and balance, with just two really major stars (Pujols and Weaver, although in truth Weaver is only slightly better than Haren) but almost no weaknesses and a mix of young players and seasoned vets jostling for playing time (Trumbo, for example, hit 29 home runs last season and is basically reduced to playing all-purpose backup to Pujols, Callaspo, Morales, Hunter and Wells, while fending off Abreu and Trout). The only two conspicuous weaknesses are Wells, who with any non-insane contract would have been cut by now (fun fact: Vernon Wells made as much money as Mitt Romney in 2009 and 2010), and the uncertain Jerome Williams as the fifth starter.

American League Champion Texas Rangers

Raw EWSL: 235.50
Adjusted: 250.96
Age-Adj.: 230.02
WS Age: 29.9
2012 W-L: 90-72

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	30	Mike Napoli	17	16
1B	26	Mitch Moreland#	6	8
2B	30	Ian Kinsler	19	18
SS	23	Elvis Andrus	19	23
3B	33	Adrian Beltre	18	16
RF	31	Nelson Cruz	17	14
CF	31	Josh Hamilton	19	16
LF	30	David Murphy	11	10
DH	35	Michael Young	20	15
C2	33	Yorvit Torrealba	9	8
INF	29	Alberto Gonzalez	4	3
OF	28	Craig Gentry#	3	5
13	25	Brandon Snyder+	0	4
SP1	32	Colby Lewis#	10	9
SP2	25	Derek Holland	8	9
SP3	25	Yu Darvish+	0	4
SP4	24	Neftali Feliz	12	14
SP5	26	Matt Harrison	9	10
RP1	37	Joe Nathan	5	4
RP2	33	Mike Adams	10	7
RP3	28	Alexi Ogando#	9	10
RP4	37	Koji Uehara	8	6
RP5	29	Mark Lowe	3	3

Subjective Adjustments: None, although as I noted last year with Andrus, EWSL tends to overrate the growth potential of very young players whose value is disproportionately defensive. But by now, the more reasonable reading of the age adjustment is a built-in assumption of offensive improvement.

Also on Hand: Position players - Julio Borbon, Lonys Martin, shortstop prospect Jurickson Profar. I always read his name to myself using the Don Pardo voice: "Juuuuricksonn PrOWfarrr..." Try it once, I guarantee it will stick with you.

Pitchers - Scott Feldman, Robert Ross.

Analysis: It remains to be seen, but right now the difference in the AL West is CJ Wilson pitching for the Angels instead of the Rangers. we'll get a better fix now on exactly how well the Nolan Ryan-led organization's pitching strategies work with the move of Neftali Feliz to the rotation and Alexi Ogando back to the pen, as well as Yu Darvish's adjustment to the majors as the rare non-gimmicky Japanese power pitcher to enter a rotation (the example of the late Hideki Irabu was not encouraging, but Irabu had a variety of issues).

The Rangers lineup is older than you think it is. Guys like Hamilton and Cruz got late starts in the big leagues, so it's easy to forget they're on the wrong side of 30 now.

Seattle Mariners

Raw EWSL: 147.50
Adjusted: 186.06
Age-Adj.: 183.55
WS Age: 28.8
2012 W-L: 74-88

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	33	Miguel Olivo	10	9
1B	25	Justin Smoak#	7	11
2B	24	Dustin Ackley*	7	18
SS	30	Brendan Ryan	12	10
3B	24	Kyle Seager*	3	4
RF	38	Ichiro Suzuki	20	13
CF	29	Franklin Guitierrez	10	10
LF	34	Chone Figgins	9	7
DH	22	Jesus Montero+	1	11
C2	28	John Jaso#	8	9
INF	26	Mike Carp*	4	8
OF	25	Michael Saunders	3	4
13	27	Casper Wells#	4	6
SP1	26	Felix Hernandez	20	22
SP2	29	Jason Vargas	8	7
SP3	37	Kevin Millwood	6	5
SP4	23	Blake Beavan*	3	6
SP5	25	Hector Noesi*	1	2
RP1	29	Brandon League	9	8
RP2	28	Tom Wilhelmsen*	2	3
RP3	25	Lucas Luetge+	0	4
RP4	28	Steve Delabar+	1	4
RP5	35	George Sherrill	4	3

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Muenenori Kawasaki, who has been doing the bulk of the infield backup work, Alex Liddi, Trayvon Robinson.

Pitchers - Shawn Kelley, Erasmo Ramirez, Hisashi Iwakuma (an import who’s still looking to crack the rotation).

Analysis: The Mariners have clipped about 3 years off their WS average age since last season, albeit partly because some of the older guys like Figgins and Ichiro are coming off tough years. But the road back is long, long enough that in the absence of marketable veterans they had to part with Michael Pineda to get a young hitter in Montero (not a bad deal, but a costly one for a rebuilding team). It's hard to see the Mariners getting rebuilt before King Felix has either gotten injured or left town. This division remains stratified very sharply between the two strong and two weak teams.

Ichiro enters tonight's action with 2438 hits in the American League to go with 1287 in nine seasons in Japan, dating back to age 18, a total of 3725 hits. It's almost a certainty that he'd be on the doorstep of 4000 hits by now if he'd been in the majors that whole time: due to the shorter Japanese schedule, he made it to 200 hits only once in Japan, as a 20-year-old hitting .385 in 1994; from age 21-26, Ichiro batted .354 but averaged 172 hits in 486 at bats per season; in the majors from age 27-36, he batted .331 but averaged 224 hits in 678 at bats. Give him an extra 50 hits a year and he'd be over 4000 by now.

Oakland A's

Raw EWSL: 114.00
Adjusted: 169.35
Age-Adj.: 167.16
WS Age: 28.3
2012 W-L: 69-93

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	28	Kurt Suzuki	10	10
1B	26	Daric Barton	10	11
2B	25	Jemile Weeks*	8	18
SS	28	Cliff Pennington	17	17
3B	26	Josh Donaldson+	0	11
RF	25	Josh Reddick*	4	8
CF	26	Yoenis Cedpedes+	0	11
LF	32	Coco Crisp	13	10
DH	31	Jonny Gomes	11	9
C2	28	Anthony Recker+	0	4
INF	26	Eric Sogard+	0	4
OF	29	Seth Smith	12	11
13	28	Kila Kaiaihue#	0	0
SP1	28	Brandon McCarthy	6	6
SP2	39	Bartolo Colon	5	4
SP3	25	Tyson Ross#	2	2
SP4	25	Tom Milone+	1	4
SP5	27	Graham Godfrey+	1	4
RP1	34	Grant Balfour	7	5
RP2	36	Brian Fuentes	7	6
RP3	28	Jerry Blevins	2	2
RP4	25	Andrew Carignan+	0	4
RP5	25	Ryan Cook+	0	4

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Adam Rosales, Brandon Allen, Jermaine Mitchell, Grant Green, Chris Carter.

Pitchers - Fautino de los Santos, Jordan Norberto, prospect Jarrod Parker and the injured duo of Brett Anderson and Dallas Braden, whose dual absence blows a huge hole in the Oakland rotation.

Analysis: Even for the annually reborn A's, who almost always exceed their EWSL due to overperforming young starting pitchers and a season-long influx of new discoveries, a non-age-adjusted total of 114 Established Win Shares (38 wins' worth) is a narrow base upon which to build. The Astros can't arrive in this division soon enough for Oakland.

You want good news? It's nice to have a guy who can throw like this.

Read More »

Part 2 of my preseason previews is the AL East; this is the second of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Notes and reference links on the EWSL method are below the fold; while EWSL is a simple enough method that will be familiar to long-time readers, it takes a little introductory explaining, so I'd suggest you check out the explanations first if you're new to these previews. Team ages are weighted by non-age-adjusted EWSL, so the best players count more towards determining the age of the roster.

Prior: AL Central.

Some players are rated based on less than three seasons or given a rookie rating. Key:
+ (Rookie)
* (Based on one season)
# (Based on two seasons)

The Hated Yankees

Raw EWSL: 281.17
Adjusted: 288.33
Age-Adj.: 246.12
WS Age: 32.1
2012 W-L: 95-67

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	29	Russell Martin	13	12
1B	32	Mark Teixeira	23	19
2B	29	Robinson Cano	29	28
SS	38	Derek Jeter	18	12
3B	36	Alex Rodriguez	18	13
RF	31	Nick Swisher	20	16
CF	31	Curtis Granderson	22	18
LF	28	Brett Gardner	15	15
DH	40	Raul Ibanez	15	8
C2	26	Francisco Cervelli	5	5
INF	25	Eduardo Nunez#	5	7
OF	35	Andruw Jones	8	6
13	34	Eric Chavez	3	3
SP1	31	CC Sabathia	19	15
SP2	23	Michael Pineda*	5	12
SP3	37	Hiroki Kuroda	11	8
SP4	25	Ivan Nova#	6	8
SP5	26	Phil Hughes	6	6
RP1	42	Mariano Rivera	14	10
RP2	27	David Robertson	7	6
RP3	32	Rafael Soriano	9	7
RP4	29	Cory Wade	3	2
RP5	36	Freddy Garcia	9	8

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Chris Stewart, Chris Dickerson.

Pitchers - Boone Logan, Andy Pettitte, Clay Rapada, David Aardsma. Joba Chamberlain and Pedro Feliciano almost certainly won't pitch this year.

Analysis: Once again, the Hated Yankees are the class of the field - albeit not of the whole AL, compared to the Tigers - and once again, they are also (probably - I haven't finished running all the numbers) the oldest team in the league, maybe in MLB.

The Yankees' depth is not that impressive behind the front line, but of course the front line is very impressive, at least on offense and in the bullpen. It's the rotation that remains a big question mark after CC Sabathia (it's easy to forget that Kuroda is even older than Freddy Garcia). A lot will rest on Pineda.

One has to assume that by the trade deadline, the Yankees will find someone besides Ibanez and Andruw Jones to handle the DH and backup outfielder duties.

Boston Red Sox

Raw EWSL: 251.83
Adjusted: 252.87
Age-Adj.: 227.62
WS Age: 30.0
2012 W-L: 89-73

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	27	J.Saltalamacchia	5	5
1B	30	Adrian Gonzalez	31	28
2B	28	Dustin Pedroia	22	22
SS	31	Mike Aviles	6	5
3B	33	Kevin Youkilis	20	17
RF	27	Ryan Sweeney	8	9
CF	28	Jacoby Ellsbury	21	21
LF	30	Carl Crawford	18	16
DH	36	David Ortiz	17	13
C2	32	Kelly Shoppach	5	4
INF	34	Nick Punto	8	7
OF	31	Cody Ross	14	12
13	33	Darnell McDonald	5	4
SP1	28	Jon Lester	16	15
SP2	32	Josh Beckett	11	9
SP3	27	Clay Buchholz	10	9
SP4	27	Daniel Bard	8	7
SP5	24	Felix Doubront#	0	0
RP1	28	Andrew Bailey	10	9
RP2	29	Alfredo Aceves	8	7
RP3	27	Mark Melancon	6	6
RP4	34	Vicente Padilla	4	3
RP5	26	Franklin Morales	2	2

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Ryan Kalish, Ryan Lavarnaway. Pitchers - John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka, neither of whom is likely to pitch. Bobby Jenks, who's on the shelf for at least about half the season. Aaron Cook, Scott Atchison, Matt Albers, Justin Thomas, Ross Ohlendorf, Michael Bowden. Cook's the one most likely to have some impact in the near future.

Analysis: Bobby Valentine (who has done nothing so far to dispell my conclusion that he's the Newt Gingrich of baseball managers) has his work cut out for him - this is still a talented team, but the injuries have piled up (including Bailey being shelved yet again) and age has taken its toll, plus one has to wonder whether Carl Crawford can take over the inspirational leadership void left by JD Drew.

(...yeah, I'm trolling with that last point)

And perhaps worst of all, not only are the Sox likely competing less for the division than for the single-elimination Russian Roulette wild card, they're doing so in a viciously competitive division, as you can see from how the Rays and Jays rosters look. Maybe Crawford, Youkilis and Buchholz bounce back, but then Ortiz is 36 and there's nowhere to go but down for Ellsbury, Gonzalez, and Pedroia after 2011. The Sawx will be a good team, but they face a high likelihood of being an odd man out.

Tampa Bay Rays

Raw EWSL: 213.83
Adjusted: 230.16
Age-Adj.: 223.76
WS Age: 29.1
2012 W-L: 88-74

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	37	Jose Molina	6	3
1B	34	Carlos Pena	17	15
2B	32	Jeff Keppinger	12	10
SS	27	Sean Rodriguez	8	8
3B	26	Evan Longoria	26	28
RF	27	Matt Joyce	13	14
CF	27	BJ Upton	18	19
LF	25	Desmond Jennings*	6	13
DH	34	Luke Scott	9	7
C2	27	Jose Lobaton+	1	4
INF	26	Reid Brignac	6	6
OF	31	Ben Zobrist	26	21
13	28	Elliott Johnson*	1	2
SP1	26	David Price	13	15
SP2	30	James Shields	13	11
SP3	25	Jeremy Hellickson#	9	11
SP4	23	Matt Moore+	1	4
SP5	29	Jeff Niemann	8	7
RP1	36	Kyle Farnsworth	8	7
RP2	36	Joel Peralta	6	5
RP3	35	Fernando Rodney	4	3
RP4	25	Jacob McGee*	1	2
RP5	26	Wade Davis	6	7

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Stephen Vogt, Sam Fuld (who is injured).

Pitchers - JP Howell, Brandon Gomes, Josh Lueke, Burke Badenhop.

Analysis: The Rays have their usual assortment of young starting pitchers, prime-age position players, and aging relievers, with weak spots at catcher and much of the non-Longoria infield (depending where Zobrist is on a particular day, which thus far is more often in the outfield). It's always hard to guess how Hellickson, Moore and Davis (to the extent he gets another shot in the rotation) will progress down the path to David Pricedom.

Despite an early injury, I have a suspicion that his age 27 contract year will be good to BJ Upton, who has definitely followed the Adrian Beltre career path; Upton's five year average of .257/.346/.425 with 32 doubles, 17 HR, 37 SB & 71 BB is solid, but somehow his individual seasons don't quite match up to that package.

Toronto Blue Jays

Raw EWSL: 204.17
Adjusted: 227.16
Age-Adj.: 221.26
WS Age: 29.2
2012 W-L: 87-75

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	26	JP Arencibia*	7	15
1B	28	Adam Lind	12	12
2B	30	Kelly Johnson	16	15
SS	29	Yunel Escobar	19	18
3B	22	Brett Lawrie*	5	18
RF	31	Jose Bautista	30	25
CF	25	Colby Rasmus	13	16
LF	25	Eric Thames*	4	8
DH	29	Edwin Encarnacion	9	9
C2	29	Jeff Mathis	4	4
INF	45	Omar Vizquel	4	2
OF	31	Rajai Davis	10	8
13	30	Ben Francisco	6	6
SP1	27	Ricky Romero	16	14
SP2	27	Brandon Morrow	7	6
SP3	25	Brett Cecil	6	6
SP4	22	Henderson Alvarez*	2	5
SP5	25	Joel Carreno+	1	4
RP1	28	Sergio Santos#	8	9
RP2	37	Francisco Cordero	12	10
RP3	41	Darren Oliver	7	5
RP4	27	Luis Perez*	1	2
RP5	34	Jason Frasor	6	5

Subjective Adjustments: None, but Brett Lawrie's EWSL may be somewhat enthusiastic here, as is sometimes the case for 22 year olds.

Also on Hand: Position players - Travis Snider.

Pitchers - Dustin McGowan (hurt again) and Jesse Litsch.

Analysis: What a difference a year makes for a team I has ranked last entering last season; EWSL has them effectively even with Boston and Tampa, even adjusting for Canadian exchange rates.

Colby Rasmus is to the Jays what Upton and Crawford are to Tampa and Boston, the lineup's pivotal enigma. The pitching staff is still a crapshoot beyond Romero, but there are a fair number of live arms here.

Baltimore Orioles

Raw EWSL: 176.00
Adjusted: 181.12
Age-Adj.: 176.99
WS Age: 28.6
2012 W-L: 72-90

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	26	Matt Wieters	17	19
1B	26	Chris Davis	4	4
2B	34	Brian Roberts	7	6
SS	29	JJ Hardy	15	15
3B	28	Mark Reynolds	17	17
RF	28	Nick Markakis	20	20
CF	26	Adam Jones	15	17
LF	28	Nolan Reimold	7	7
DH	30	Wilson Betemit	10	9
C2	31	Ronny Paulino	6	5
INF	28	Robert Andino	6	6
OF	34	Endy Chavez	4	3
13	33	Nick Johnson	4	3
SP1	29	Jason Hammell	7	6
SP2	26	Jake Arrieta#	4	6
SP3	25	Tommy Hunter	6	7
SP4	26	Wei-Yin Chen+	0	4
SP5	25	Brian Matusz	4	4
RP1	29	Jim Johnson	8	7
RP2	32	Matt Lindstrom	4	3
RP3	34	Kevin Gregg	6	5
RP4	29	Darren O'Day	5	4
RP5	34	Luis Ayala	3	2

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Ryan Flaherty.

Pitchers - Pedro Strop, Troy Patton, Zach Britton, Tsuyoshi Wada, Brad Bergesen.

Analysis: The Orioles aren't terrible, but this division could easily leave a lot of their players look like Robert Andino.

Wieters, Davis and Jones have basically reached the put up or shut up stage for their hyped potential. Davis now has a career line of .322/.380/.645 in AA, .337/.397/.609 in AAA, but .252/.301/.448 in MLB. In MLB, he's averaged a .335 BABIP, 24 HR, 39 BB, and 189 K per 600 AB. Between AA and AAA: .395 BABIP, 41 HR, 58 BB, 156 K per 600 AB. In other words, it's not just the strikeouts, Davis has struggled across the board to translate his skills to the MLB level. He could hit 45 homers, he could hit .210; he could do both. If he and Jones both improve their strike zone judgment just a bit, this lineup looks a lot better. Then you have Hardy, who is liable to do anything in a given season (I sort of half expect him to hit 30 homers because having two good years in a row is the one thing he's never done), and Markakis, who is battling to avoid the Ben Grieve career path he's been on for the past few seasons, as well as Reynolds, who will be a terror if he plays every day and strikes out less than 200 times, but is more apt to terrorize his own pitching staff. If ever there was an offense designed for the outside possibility of making its batting coach look like a genius...Jim Presley has his work cut out for him.

We pass in silence and avert our eyes from Baltimore's pitching beyond noting that Jake Arrieta started Opening Day.

Read More »

Long-time readers know that the timing of my annual division previews has gotten more erratic over the years, but since this is a multi-year project, I can't drop the ball even if I'm late, late enough that the season's already underway before the first one. So here we go.

Part 1 of my preseason previews is the AL Central; this is the first of six division previews, using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point. Notes and reference links on the EWSL method are below the fold; while EWSL is a simple enough method that will be familiar to long-time readers, it takes a little introductory explaining, so I'd suggest you check out the explanations first if you're new to these previews. Team ages are weighted by non-age-adjusted EWSL, so the best players count more towards determining the age of the roster.

Some players are rated based on less than three seasons or given a rookie rating. Key:
+ (Rookie)
* (Based on one season)
# (Based on two seasons)

Detroit Tigers

Raw EWSL: 250.83
Adjusted: 262.49
Age-Adj.: 254.41
WS Age: 28.5
2012 W-L: 98-64

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	25	Alex Avila	16	20
1B	28	Prince Fielder	30	30
2B	31	Ryan Raburn	10	8
SS	30	Jhonny Peralta	18	16
3B	29	Miguel Cabrera	33	32
RF	27	Brennan Boesch#	10	12
CF	25	Austin Jackson#	13	19
LF	26	Delmon Young	14	15
DH	26	Andy Dirks*	3	7
C2	32	Gerald Laird	6	5
INF	32	Ramon Santiago	7	5
OF	32	Don Kelly#	4	4
13	26	Danny Worth#	1	1
SP1	29	Justin Verlander	23	20
SP2	27	Max Scherzer	11	10
SP3	28	Doug Fister	12	11
SP4	23	Rick Porcello	8	8
SP5	23	Drew Smyly+	0	4
RP1	32	Jose Valverde	13	10
RP2	34	Joaquin Benoit	7	6
RP3	38	Octavio Dotel	6	4
RP4	29	Phil Coke	5	4
RP5	26	Daniel Schlereth	3	3

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Clete Thomas, the Ghost of Brandon Inge, the injured and almost certainly out for the season Victor Martinez.

Pitchers - Charlie Furbush, Al Albuquerque (who's injured), Duane Below, Andrew Oliver, Collin Balester, Brayan Villarreal.

Analysis: As befits a team that went to the ALCS last year and then added Prince Fielder, EWSL rates the Tigers as fairly overwhelming favorites to win the AL Central going away. Verlander's continuing health and durability is the key assumption there. So far, the Tigers have played as a caricature of themselves, scoring nearly 9 runs per game but with an appalling .654 Defensive Efficiency Rating - that infield's not going to be pretty. Also, the Tigers' depth in their everyday lineup is not great, if they have injuries. But these are mostly nits.

As you may have heard, Octavio Dotel has set the all-time record for most teams played for, 13 in 14 seasons. Smyly had a good pro debut last season - 2.07 ERA, 9.3 K, 2.6 BB, 0.1 HR/9 (just 2 homers in 126 IP) - and got stronger in the last third of the season when he moved up to AA, but will be making a big leap to the big leagues.

Cleveland Indians

Raw EWSL: 181.17
Adjusted: 193.77
Age-Adj.: 188.33
WS Age: 28.4
2012 W-L: 76-86

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	26	Carlos Santana#	13	17
1B	29	Casey Kotchman	12	12
2B	25	Jason Kipnis*	3	7
SS	26	Asdrubal Cabrera	19	20
3B	32	Jack Hannahan	8	6
RF	29	Shin-Soo Choo	17	16
CF	25	Michael Brantley	8	9
LF	26	Aaron Cunningham#	2	2
DH	35	Travis Hafner	13	9
C2	26	Lou Marson#	4	5
INF	27	Jason Donald#	4	5
OF	32	Shelley Duncan	7	5
13	29	Grady Sizemore	5	5
SP1	27	Justin Masterson	10	9
SP2	28	Ubaldo Jimenez	14	13
SP3	27	Josh Tomlin#	6	6
SP4	39	Derek Lowe	6	5
SP5	28	Kevin Slowey	4	3
RP1	26	Chris Perez	10	11
RP2	28	Tony Sipp	5	5
RP3	28	Joe Smith	5	5
RP4	27	Vinnie Pestano*	4	7
RP5	30	Rafael Perez	5	4

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Lonnie Chisenhall, who may end up the third baseman at some point; Ryan Spilborghs.

Pitchers - Chris Ray.

Analysis: The Indians have the air of optimism about them, but Cabrera will have a hard time topping last season, as will Masterson (I'd bet on Masterson, of the two). There's room for growth from Santana and a rebound by Choo - and you never know with Sizemore, although he's on the 60-day DL at this writing - but it's hard to look up and down this roster and see where they make up the gap to catch the Tigers.

A full season of Ubaldo Jimenez should help stabilize the rotation, but as of now he looks like another data point for the idea that guys who pitch well in Coors end up old before their time from the strain.

Kansas City Royals

Raw EWSL: 135.33
Adjusted: 154.33
Age-Adj.: 166.17
WS Age: 27.3
2012 W-L: 69-93

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	30	Brayan Pena	4	4
1B	22	Eric Hosmer*	7	23
2B	30	Yuniesky Betancourt	11	10
SS	25	Alcides Escobar	9	10
3B	23	Mike Moustakas*	2	5
RF	28	Jeff Francouer	12	12
CF	26	Lorenzo Cain#	2	3
LF	28	Alex Gordon	13	13
DH	26	Billy Butler	18	20
C2	32	Humberto Quintero	3	3
INF	28	Chris Getz	7	7
OF	30	Mitch Maier	7	6
13	30	Jason Bourgeois	3	3
SP1	35	Bruce Chen	8	6
SP2	28	Luke Hochevar	5	5
SP3	29	Jonathan Sanchez	7	6
SP4	28	Felipe Paulino	3	3
SP5	23	Danny Duffy*	1	1
RP1	28	Jonathan Broxton	5	4
RP2	26	Greg Holland*	5	10
RP3	25	Aaron Crow*	3	6
RP4	22	Tim Collins*	2	5
RP5	28	Luis Mendoza	1	1

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position players - Johnny Giovatella, like Getz, will sooner or later challenge again for the second base job.

Pitchers - Joakim Soria, who won't pitch; Blake Wood.

Analysis: The Royals are back in that familiar position of having optimism derived from young talent in the lineup, but - as of yet - nothing comparable in the rotation. Duffy has the minor league record of a high-end prospect, but he got cuffed around last season and has much to prove to show he's turned that corner. And of course, this team is still held together by too many players of the Francouer, Chen, Betancourt ilk. The Royals could well post a winning record if Moustakas and Duffy blossom and more help arrives from the minors, but it's hard to see them actually contending yet.

Minnesota Twins

Raw EWSL: 169.33
Adjusted: 189.37
Age-Adj.: 175.41
WS Age: 29.7
2012 W-L: 72-90

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	29	Joe Mauer	19	19
1B	24	Chris Parmelee+	3	11
2B	27	Alexi Casilla	6	7
SS	37	Jamey Carroll	13	8
3B	27	Danny Valencia	9	11
RF	24	Ben Revere*	5	12
CF	28	Denard Span	13	13
LF	33	Josh Willingham	16	13
DH	31	Justin Morneau	11	9
C2	31	Ryan Doumit	8	7
INF	26	Trevor Plouffe*	3	7
OF	27	Luke Hughes*	3	6
13	31	Sean Burroughs	1	0
SP1	36	Carl Pavano	11	10
SP2	30	Scott Baker	10	9
SP3	28	Francisco Liriano	7	7
SP4	30	Nick Blackburn	6	5
SP5	33	Jason Marquis	6	4
RP1	28	Matt Capps	8	8
RP2	29	Glen Perkins	4	4
RP3	29	Brian Duensing	7	6
RP4	24	Alex Burnett#	1	1
RP5	31	Jared Burton	1	1

Subjective Adjustments: None.

Also on Hand: Position Players - Tsuyoshi Nishioka. Pitchers - Jeff Gray.

Analysis: Few teams have fallen as far as fast as these Twins, with the unraveling of Mauer, Morneau and Liriano dashing any hopes the team could have had of fixing the problems further down the roster (a lesser storyline being the disappointment of Scott Baker and the now-departed Kevin Slowey). 72-90, reflecting some of the residual strength of the fallen stars, may actually be optimistic.

Chicago White Sox

Raw EWSL: 178.50
Adjusted: 195.73
Age-Adj.: 174.21
WS Age: 30.2
2012 W-L: 71-91

POS	Age	PLAYER	Raw EWSL	Age Adj
C	35	AJ Pierzynski	11	8
1B	36	Paul Konerko	25	18
2B	25	Gordon Beckham	13	15
SS	30	Alexi Ramirez	19	17
3B	25	Brent Morel#	2	3
RF	31	Alex Rios	10	8
CF	28	Alejandro de Aza	5	5
LF	23	Dayan Viciedo#	2	3
DH	32	Adam Dunn	11	8
C2	26	Tyler Flowers*	2	3
INF	28	Brent Lillibridge	4	4
OF	35	Kosuke Fukudome	14	10
13	23	Eduardo Escobar+	0	4
SP1	27	John Danks	12	11
SP2	29	Gavin Floyd	12	10
SP3	31	Jake Peavy	6	4
SP4	29	Phil Humber#	6	6
SP5	23	Chris Sale#	7	10
RP1	24	Hector Santiago+	1	4
RP2	35	Matt Thornton	9	7
RP3	23	Addison Reed+	0	4
RP4	30	Jesse Crain	8	6
RP5	34	Will Ohman	3	2

Subjective Adjustments: None. Santiago has been announced as the closer, but I still expect Reed to take the job by season's end.

Also on Hand: Position players - Conor Jackson, Osvaldo Martinez.

Pitchers - Zack Stewart.

Analysis: Can these guys really be worse than the hapless Twins? I admit some skepticism, but despite a lot of good arms, this team's best everyday players have a lot of years on them. It's more likely that the Twins underperform their EWSL than the White Sox significantly overperform, although of course another about-face by Dunn and Rios would help.

Read More »

The second piece of the puzzle (after the below) in preparing my annual Established Win Shares Levels previews is to review the prior year's team results. I'll present these without much comment for now; the teams are sorted by how their 2011 pre-season rosters stacked up against their EWSL, with the later columns showing how they plugged the gaps with guys not listed before the season. I'll go back and update this later with how this affects the cumulative team adjustments.

Team	EWSL	2011 WS	Plus/Minus	Wins	WS	Rest of Team	Rest-W
WAS	154.41	211	56.59	80	240	29	9.67
AZ	181.35	234	52.65	94	282	48	16.00
CLE	152.39	196	43.61	80	240	44	14.67
PHI	215.86	257	41.14	102	306	49	16.33
TB	202.95	240	37.05	91	273	33	11.00
MIL	223.33	259	35.67	96	288	29	9.67
NYY	233.73	264	30.27	97	291	27	9.00
DET	213.96	243	29.04	95	285	42	14.00
STL	217.52	241	23.48	90	270	29	9.67
KC	139.02	159	19.98	71	213	54	18.00
ANA	211.48	231	19.52	86	258	27	9.00
ATL	224.45	237	12.55	89	267	30	10.00
TOR	191.82	199	7.18	81	243	44	14.67
TEX	248.05	247	-1.05	96	288	41	13.67
BOS	246.27	245	-1.27	90	270	25	8.33
NYM	192.38	191	-1.38	77	231	40	13.33
SD	181.00	178	-3.00	71	213	35	11.67
FLA	195.68	182	-13.68	72	216	34	11.33
PIT	181.48	166	-15.48	72	216	50	16.67
CIN	219.32	202	-17.32	79	237	35	11.67
CHC	213.68	192	-21.68	71	213	21	7.00
BAL	195.24	172	-23.24	69	207	35	11.67
SEA	178.64	150	-28.64	67	201	51	17.00
LA	221.49	192	-29.49	82	246	54	18.00
COL	207.14	175	-32.14	73	219	44	14.67
HOU	172.28	138	-34.28	56	168	30	10.00
OAK	211.31	176	-35.31	74	222	46	15.33
CHW	230.98	192	-38.98	79	237	45	15.00
SF	248.71	198	-50.71	86	258	60	20.00
MIN	222.85	146	-76.85	63	189	43	14.33
TOTAL	6128.76	6113	-15.76	2429	7287.00	1174.00	391.33
Average	204.29	203.77	-0.53	80.97	242.90	39.13	13.04

UPDATE: As you can see from the above, MLB-wide, teams earned 1174 Win Shares, or 39.13 per team, from the rest of their rosters, the least since 2006. Results year-by-year since I started tracking results at a team level:

2005: 1067 (35.57)
2006: 1143 (38.10)
2007: 1260 (42.00)
2008: 1226 (40.87)
2009: 1221 (40.70)
2010: 1247 (41.57)
2011: 1174 (39.13)
Total: 8338 (39.70)

It's that time of year again - it gets later every year - for my division previews powered by Established Win Shares Levels (originally explained here): before we get to rolling out the 2012 EWSLs, I have to update the age adjustments and rookie values I use each year. These are based on the data I have gathered over the past eight seasons, and so with each passing year, one would hope they become progressively more stable and useful in evaluating the established talent base on hand for each team entering each season. As a reminder: EWSL is not a prediction system. It's a way of assessing the resources on hand.

To my mind, the age data is actually some of the most interesting stuff from this whole project, arguably more useful than the annual team previews, because it's a mostly objective (albeit unscientific) dataset that gives us a different look at the aging curve from the perspective of the guys who look like they have roster spots in March and April of each year.

I'll skip some more of the usual preliminaries (see this post from 2010 explaining more) and get right to the charts:

Non-Pitchers 2011 and 2004-2011:

2011 NP					04-11
Age	#	WS	EWSL	%	#	WS	EWSL	%
21-	3	55	48	1.146	9	127	107	1.187
22	2	26	33	0.793	30	462	260	1.779
23	4	53	33	1.603	71	865	704	1.229
24	22	286	205	1.393	137	1788	1368	1.307
25	22	270	238	1.137	195	2292	1906	1.203
26	28	304	246	1.235	241	2718	2491	1.091
27	43	569	495	1.149	277	3174	2997	1.059
28	41	457	481	0.950	280	3255	3227	1.009
29	29	350	350	1.000	253	3010	3103	0.970
30	31	358	361	0.992	261	2939	3239	0.907
31	32	240	378	0.636	241	2436	2969	0.821
32	23	264	308	0.857	219	2167	2695	0.804
33	24	173	247	0.701	189	1901	2230	0.853
34	17	174	183	0.953	163	1672	1923	0.869
35	26	231	314	0.735	148	1256	1702	0.738
36	6	42	63	0.665	96	904	1217	0.743
37	11	102	175	0.583	75	622	989	0.629
38	1	5	11	0.476	50	399	587	0.680
39	7	49	74	0.661	39	358	481	0.744
40+	5	21	40	0.525	43	282	523	0.540
	377	4029	4282	0.941	3017	32627	34716	0.940

The younger age cohorts, as usual, were volatile due to their small sample size. Among the 20somethings, the 28 year olds got hit the hardest (led by Joe Mauer, David Wright, Shin-Soo Choo, Kendry Morales, Casey McGeehee, Stephen Drew and Franklin Gutierrez), while the 26 year olds did the best (led by Matt Kemp, Matt Joyce, Emilio Bonifacio, and Melky Cabrera); the 31 year olds (led by Adam Dunn, Adam LaRoche, Felipe Lopez, Juan Uribe and Ryan Spilborghs) and 33 year olds (led by Chone Figgins, Marlon Byrd, Rafael Furcal, and Luke Scott) also took it on the chin, and as has been the pattern since the end of the steroid/Barry Bonds age, the over-35 crowd did more poorly than the overall results since 2004.

Pitchers 2011 and 2004-2011:

2011 P					2011 Total
Age	#	WS	EWSL	%	#	WS	EWSL	%
21-	1	12	8	1.500	11	85	64	1.328
22	3	29	18	1.656	36	294	224	1.312
23	14	121	90	1.339	76	583	496	1.175
24	16	94	93	1.016	120	850	754	1.127
25	21	144	136	1.062	184	1306	1172	1.114
26	27	238	169	1.408	231	1624	1459	1.113
27	39	244	319	0.765	231	1492	1692	0.882
28	30	218	232	0.938	219	1497	1595	0.939
29	25	152	157	0.967	202	1299	1498	0.867
30	18	137	153	0.897	188	1158	1373	0.843
31	13	74	99	0.744	173	1037	1326	0.782
32	21	123	154	0.801	141	865	1099	0.787
33	17	69	106	0.654	116	628	892	0.704
34	16	100	137	0.730	99	562	708	0.794
35	9	80	70	1.137	70	387	477	0.812
36	10	86	85	1.016	61	363	400	0.908
37	4	11	19	0.595	46	274	344	0.797
38	2	2	22	0.093	44	284	361	0.788
39	1	2	6	0.364	30	210	247	0.851
40+	5	31	40	0.769	73	494	693	0.713
	284	1917	2058	0.931	2343	15242	16821	0.906

Besides the youngest arms, the 26 year olds (led by Ian Kennedy, Justin Masterson, Eric O'Flaherty, Fernando Salas and David Robertson) and 35 year olds (led by Kyle Farnsworth, Scott Downs, Freddy Garcia, and Joel Peralta) had the best 2011 showings; the 24 year olds (led by Tommy Hanson, Jaime Garcia, Tommy Hunter and Brian Matusz) and 27 year olds (led by Josh Johnson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Andrew Bailey, Joakim Soria, Jonathan Broxton, and Kevin Slowey) the worst aside from an overall decay above age 30.

We wrap up with the rookie adjustments:

Rookies

Type of Player	# in 2011	WS in 2011	# 2004-11	WS 2004-11	Rate
Everyday Players	9	82	75	793	10.57
Bench Players (Under 30)	4	16	70	269	3.84
Bench Players (Age 30+)	0	0	4	3	0.75
Rotation Starters	2	8	34	146	4.29
Relief Pitchers	6	11	24	107	4.46
TOTAL			207	1318	6.37

Baseball-Reference.com has at long last started publishing Negro League stats. It's a glorious day. They're a work in progress, a lot less complete than those at other sites, but I assume that's due to a superior commitment to accuracy.

Take a look at Satchel Paige's stats. There are more detailed numbers for Paige in Larry Tye's biography, which I highly recommend both for that reason and because Paige is a helluva story and a compelling character who both symbolizes and transcends his era. Anyway, look at Paige's strikeout rates, from 11.5 K/9 in 1927 to 10.2 K/9 in 1945. Even given the sometimes uneven levels of competition and the fact that some of these are small samples of his innings, it's just extraordinary to have those strikeout rates under the playing conditions of that era, with little or no night baseball and players still - just as in the white Major Leagues - taking a more contact-based approach than they would from the mid-1950s on. Indeed, even into his mid-40s, Paige would have some of the highest strikeout rates in the American League of his time. I mean some time to do a longer look at Paige's career through the lens of the various numbers; there's so much to work with even given the difficulty of putting it all quite into context. Paige was a rotation starter from age 20 in 1927 in Birmingham, yet by 1956-58, at age 49-51, he was still a swing man for the AAA Miami Marlins. Paige was 11-4 with a 1.86 ERA in 1956, posted a 2.42 ERA and a 6.91 K/BB ratio in 1957; over the three seasons in Miami, in 33 starts and 72 relief appearances, Paige threw 340 innings, went 31-22 with a 2.41 ERA and averaged 0.71 HR, 1.43 BB and 5.16 K/9. Paige made his last professional appearance in A ball in 1966 as a teammate of Johnny Bench.

Anyway, I'll be excited to see the site build out more stats - most of us have a pretty good idea of what Paige's and Josh Gibson's talents look like when translated into something like a real stat line, but many other Negro League stars are fuzzier in popular memory (Oscar Charleston and John Henry Lloyd in particular are guys who deserve to be more vividly remembered - there's every reason to think that Charleston was on the same level with the other all time great CF talents like Mays, Mantle, Cobb, Speaker, and DiMaggio).

I generally avoid business of baseball stories, but I've covered this one for years and it remains extremely frustrating. Bill Madden and Maury Brown look at how the San Francisco Giants are using their 'territorial' rights to keep the Oakland A's stuck in the dilapidated Coliseum by refusing to let them move to the less economically depressed San Jose following the collapse of their plan (hatched in 2006, seemingly endorsed at the polls in 2008, but abandoned in early 2009) to move to Fremont.

Brown speculates that Bud Selig favors the San Jose move as a way to increase revenues around the league, but lacks the votes among the owners to strip the Giants of their veto power. Madden:

To strip the Giants of their territorial rights to San Jose would require a three-quarters vote of the clubs, and as one baseball lawyer observed: "Clubs would realize what a terrible 'there but for the grace of God go us' precedent that would create in which all of their territorial rights would then be in jeopardy." As an example of that, one can't imagine the Yankees, Mets or Phillies voting to take the Giants' territorial rights to San Jose away when it could conceivably open the doors for a team seeking to re-locate to New Jersey.

Brown echoes this: "If the A's get to relo to San Jose, what's to say that the Rays don't wind up in Northern New Jersey, next?"

This is always a concern about precedent-setting by majority vote, but the situations are not at all comparable, because the A's are already in the Giants' market and are trying to move 35 miles further away. There is simply no fairness or equity argument you can make, in that sense, for the Giants' position. The more sinister implication here is that the Giants are playing a game of brinksmanship in hopes of capturing the ultimate prize: kicking the already-twice-moved A's out of Northern California entirely (and maybe even out of MLB), so the Giants can scoop up their fans. It would be hard to come up with a scenario that makes the territorial-rights concept less sympathetic than that.

On the other hand, the Giants' owners have an entirely reasonable point that they paid for those territorial rights when they bought the team:

The Giants' territorial rights to San Jose are part of the MLB constitution as a result of former A's owner, Levi-Strauss heir Wally Haas agreeing to cede them in 1989 to Giants owner Bob Lurie, who, frustrated in his efforts to get a new stadium in San Francisco, was looking to relocate the team....

Lurie never did try to move the Giants to San Jose, but the fact that he now held those territorial rights to the rich high-tech Silicon Valley enhanced the Giants' value, and was a prime reason why Lurie, who bought the Giants in 1976 for $8 million, was able to sell them for $100 million in 1993 to a group headed by former Safeway magnate Peter Magowan. The San Jose rights were also the reason why Magowan was able to secure financing for the new ballpark in San Francisco, as the Giants now maintain the crux of their constituency - season box and suite holders - is from the Silicon Valley.

The A's note, in a press release quoted by Brown, that this is a case of no good deed going unpunished, and imply that they have some legal basis for challenging the continuance of the Giants' rights after they failed to relocate the team:

Of the four two-team markets in MLB, only the Giants and A's do not share the exact same geographic boundaries. MLB-recorded minutes clearly indicate that the Giants were granted Santa Clara, subject to relocating to the city of Santa Clara. The granting of Santa Clara to the Giants was by agreement with the A's late owner Walter Haas, who approved the request without compensation. The Giants were unable to obtain a vote to move and the return of Santa Clara to its original status was not formally accomplished.

Only baseball's longstanding antitrust exemption permits the existence of territorial rights in the first place; if the A's were mounting some sort of challenge, I assume they'd have to show that the extension of the rights were conditioned on moving the Giants, and given how much Magowan paid for the Giants and the argument that the team's value was significantly enhanced by its territorial rights, I'd be surprised if he didn't do extremely careful due diligence to determine that they were bulletproof.

In a logical universe, Selig would be able to organize a vote to strip the Giants of their veto power over the San Jose move in exchange for arranging financial compensation to the Giants ownership, perhaps to be paid in part by the A's and in part out of the revenue-sharing fund; the league could conceivably even assign a neutral arbitrator to assign a value to the compensation. This doesn't have to be a zero-sum game of chicken between the two Bay Area rivals.

It's been rumored for a while, but Bud Selig makes it official:

Major League Baseball will officially expand the playoffs to 10 teams starting this season...The new format will add another wild card team, with the two wild cards to play each other in one game with the winner moving on to face a division winner.

I strongly approve of this; it's how the wild card should have been all along, if we must have it (which I still dislike). Forcing the wild card teams into a one-game, high-stakes playoff gives a definite advantage to being a division winner over a wild card. That is likely to have the largest impact in the American League East, where the Yankees and Red Sox have often seemed to treat the regular season as a formality; now, especially if they're facing another wild card team with one really good starting pitcher, they are going to want to fight like mad to get the division flag and not have to run the gauntlet of a one-game playoff. Yet, expanding to two wild cards also accomplishes what the owners wanted, which is to have more teams at least theoretically alive in September.

Yes, a part of me shares David Wright's reaction ("That would have been nice five years ago"). Of course, that's de facto what we have had a few times already when teams tied for the Wild Card, and it will get wilder still if we have those ties now, putting teams in the position of playing consecutive single-elimination games.

Bottom line: more thrilling September and October baseball, but in a way that makes early-season baseball more rather than less significant. For once, win-win all around.

Who was the best starting pitcher of all time, at his peak?

I've done a few different approaches to this question over the years, and still mean to do a more detailed and systematic look down the road when I have more time to devote to the issue. But here's one quick take. This is a list of all the starting pitchers I could find - I'm pretty sure I got everyone - to post an ERA+ of 150 or better over a period of 5 or more seasons. I found 25 of them (this excluded Jim Devlin, whose career ERA+ stood at 151 when he was banned from baseball in 1877 after 3 seasons for throwing games, and Al Maul, who posted a 155 ERA+ from 1895-99, but appeared in only 59 games over those 5 seasons and threw 140 innings in only one of them; I may have missed somebody else with a flukey pattern like Maul's. And I left off Hoyt Wilhelm, who was a full time starter for only a year and a half). ERA+, for those of you not familar with the concept, is baseball-reference.com's computation of how much better a pitcher's ERA was than the league average, after adjusting for park effects; a pitcher whose ERA is half the league average is twice as good as the league and thus has an ERA+ of 200. As you can see, an ERA+ that's 50% better than the league is a pretty hard thing to sustain over a 5 year stretch.

A more systematic approach would examine two additional questions I handle only anecdotally here. The major one is workloads - I've listed each pitcher's average innings per year here, but as you can see from my examination of pitcher workloads between 1920-2004, the average innings thrown by a #1 starter or by an average rotation starter has changed a lot over the years; the changes are even more dramatic as you go through the period from 1871-1910. The other item to consider is how much of pitcher ERAs even over an extended period can be attributable to defense, not only because different pitchers had better or worse defenses behind them but because the pitcher's share of the load has changed over time - as I demonstrated here and here, the percentage of plate appearances resulting in a ball in play has dropped from a high of 96.7% in the National Association in 1874 to a low of 69.7% in the National League in 2010. Clearly, the modern pitcher has far more responsibility for keeping runs off the board than his distant ancestors. (One could also examine changes in the quality of competition over time, but while I note a few guys here who cleaned up on war-weakened leagues, I generally ignore that issue in these kinds of studies; the best we can ask is who did the most with the competition of their day).

Here's the chart; as you can see, while for most of these guys the "peak" was easy to identify, in a few cases of guys who peaked over a long period or more than once (or in the case of Greg Marddux and Randy Johnson, were close enough to the top of the list to justify closer examination), I broke out their careers in more groups of seasons than one. QI/Yr is Quality Innings, a quick-and-dirty metric I use to multiply Innings Pitched by ERA+. Helps give some perspective to the quantity vs quality debate.

#	Pitcher	Age	Yrs	IP/Yr	ERA+	QI/Yr	W	L	W%
1	Pedro Martinez	25-31	7	201	213	42813	17	5	0.766
2	Greg Maddux	28-32	5	228	202	46056	17	6	0.731
3	Walter Johnson	22-27	6	353	198	69894	29	13	0.685
	G. Maddux	26-32	7	239	191	45649	18	8	0.706
	W. Johnson	22-31	10	343	184	63112	26	14	0.650
4	Three Finger Brown	29-33	5	292	182	53144	25	9	0.743
5	Randy Johnson	31-38	8	220	178	39160	18	6	0.765
6	Grover Alexander	26-33	6	296	174	51504	24	10	0.691
	L. Grove	35-39	5	229	173	39617	17	8	0.669
7	Lefty Grove	28-32	5	282	172	48504	26	7	0.795
8	Christy Mathewson	27-31	5	320	170	54400	28	10	0.730
	R. Johnson	29-38	10	219	170	37230	18	6	0.751
9	Sandy Koufax	26-30	5	275	167	45925	22	7	0.766
10	Kevin Brown	31-35	5	242	165	39930	16	8	0.667
	R. Clemens	31-35	5	210	162	34020	14	8	0.648
11	Cy Young	34-38	5	360	161	57960	27	13	0.678
12	Hal Newhouser	23-27	5	295	161	47495	24	11	0.678
13	Roger Clemens	23-29	7	257	160	41120	19	9	0.683
14	Ed Walsh	26-31	6	375	158	59250	25	16	0.604
	L. Grove	26-39	14	247	158	39026	20	8	0.704
	W. Johnson	28-32	5	291	157	45687	20	15	0.576
15	Johan Santana	25-29	5	229	157	35953	17	8	0.688
16	Kid Nichols	25-29	5	372	156	58032	28	14	0.659
17	Smokey Joe Wood	20-25	6	205	156	31980	18	8	0.686
18	Carl Hubbell	29-33	5	293	155	45415	22	11	0.677
	R. Clemens	23-35	13	234	155	36270	17	9	0.654
19	Spud Chandler	34-39	6	146	155	22630	10	4	0.739
20	Tom Seaver	24-28	5	280	154	43120	21	10	0.669
21	Bob Gibson	30-34	5	274	153	41922	20	10	0.673
	C. Mathewson	22-32	11	324	152	49248	28	11	0.716
22	Addie Joss	24-29	6	278	152	42256	20	11	0.645
	G. Maddux	32-36	5	230	152	34960	18	9	0.669
23	Roy Halladay	28-34	7	222	152	33744	17	8	0.695
24	Rube Waddell	25-29	5	317	151	47867	22	14	0.619
25	Ed Reulbach	22-26	5	252	151	38052	19	8	0.713

Some thoughts:

Pedro Martinez has clearly earned the distinction of the most effective starting pitcher of all time at his peak, swimming upstream against Fenway Park and an era of sluggers gone wild. Pedro didn't carry a heavy enough innings load to be considered quite the best ever, even adjusted for his era, but when he was on the hill, there's never been better. And moreso than anyone on this list except Randy Johnson, Pedro did most of it himself - fewer than 60% of plate appearances against Pedro in those years ended in a ball in play, compared to a little under 75% for Maddux, a little over 75% for Walter Johnson, 77% for Lefty Grove, and 82% for Three Finger Brown. (Randy Johnson was a little under 55%).

Greg Maddux just might be the best ever - he led the league in innings every year from age 25-29, finished second at age 30 and third at age 32. His innings total looks lower here than it might be because of the strike seasons right at his age 28-29 pinnacle. That said, he has to be knocked just a peg for the fact that we don't know if he would have ground down just a little if he'd had a full schedule to pitch those two years. But no matter how you slice it, Maddux was one of the very best.

Walter Johnson remains my choice for the best starting pitcher of all time, utterly dominating an entire decade from age 22-31, during which he led the AL in innings pitched five times (Johnson's 1918-19 seasons, age 30-31, were shortened slightly by World War I. One of my favorite factoids is that Johnson allowed just two home runs in 616.1 innings those two seasons, and both of them were hit by Babe Ruth. But he was at his very best in 1912-13, when he averaged 34-10 with an ERA+ of 250 and averaged 358 innings a year.) There's a significant dropoff after the top three to the next tier.

Three Finger Brown gets a little bit of short shrift in discussions of the very, very best pitchers, in part because his career started late, and he certainly had a lot of help from one of the two best defensive teams of all time. Pitchers in Brown's era didn't throw a ton of breaking balls - they had to conserve energy over the high innings workloads of the day, they could afford to save their best stuff for the 'pinch' in the absence of home runs (Mathewson supposedly threw his fadeaway only about 10 times a game) and sports medicine was nonexistent, so if you strained your elbow throwing curveballs, you just pitched through it or gave up. But Brown, being missing a chunk of his pitching hand, could throw a breaking ball with a fastball grip (no need to strain the wrist with an unnatural grip), and that made him deadly.

I also think we haven't fully absorbed the impact of Randy Johnson just yet. Johnson was a Paul Bunyanesque freak of nature and a generally crotchety guy, but in his prime was a super-elite pitcher.

I looked more at Grover Alexander in this 2003 column - Alexander's prime here includes the 1918 season, in which he appeared in just three games before going off to fight in World War I, and the 1919 season, which played a shortened schedule. That artificially conceals what an amazing workhorse Old Pete was - Alexander averaged 384 innings a year from 1915-17 (age 28-30), often leading the league by enormous margins. By 1920 he'd picked up another monstrous workload, clearing 355 innings for the sixth time in a decade, all of them league-leading totals. Alexander might well have won 400 games, and would have been very close, if not for the war (he won 45 in the minors in addition to 373 after arriving in the NL at age 24). Note that our top six here includes a guy with a mangled hand and three pitchers who regularly threw some sort of sidearm (the two Johnsons and Alexander).

Which brings us to Lefty Grove, who like Walter Johnson (and a young Satchel Paige) broke into the league throwing nearly nothing but fastballs before gradually expanding his repetoire. Grove's real peak was age 28-32, but his ERA+ is slightly better for his age 35-39 seasons with the Red Sox, when he was gradually scaling back to being a 'Sunday pitcher' and no longer doing double duty as his team's ace reliever. As Bill James has noted, Grove won 300 games in the majors after winning 111 games in the minors, 108 of them for the Baltimore Orioles of a highly competitive International League.

Christy Mathewson probably got more help from his offense than any other great pitcher, with the arguable exceptions of Grove, Kid Nichols and Warren Spahn. But Matty in his prime didn't really need all that much help. This includes his epic 1908 season, when a 27 year old Mathewson threw 390.2 innings in the heat of the legendary pennant race, only to lose to Brown (pitching in relief) and the Cubs in the replay of the Merkle game on the season's last day.

Sandy Koufax is considered the gold standard for guys who scaled a really dizzying peak, and he surely is among the best, but when you take the air of Dodger Stadium and the mid-60s out of his numbers, Koufax pulls up short of the guys at the very top. (Another reason Koufax stood out so much at the time: notice there's nobody on this list between Hal Newhouser in the mid-1940s and Koufax in the first half of the 1960s, Whitey Ford having just missed)

Kevin Brown is not a guy you expect to see quite this high up a list like this, but Brown at his best was really, really good. The last two years of Brown's peak include the first two of his famous contract; over the first five seasons of that contract, Brown's ERA+ was 148, although with injuries he averaged just 175 innings, and then he went to the Yankees and unraveled.

Cy Young was relentlessly good and consistent for a very long time - back when I was running translated pitching stats, I noticed that when you adjusted him for the league average, Young's rate of walks per 9 innings was nearly the same every year for two decades. As I demonstrated in my essay on Baseball's Most Impressive Records, there was a generational change from the guys in the 1880s-1890s who carried ridiculous 400+ inning a year workloads to pitchers who started having long careers in the 1900s, but Young was really the one and only guy to do both, which is why his career numbers have that oceanic vastness that defies analysis. Note that Young benefits a little from the fact that these were the American League's first five seasons, the first year or two of which featured a somewhat lower level of competition than the NL of the day.

Hal Newhouser had his best seasons against a war-depleted American League in 1944-45 and a lot of rusty returning veterans in 1946, so he's probably several notches higher here than he'd otherwise be, but he was a nasty power lefty who was a legitimately great pitcher for a few years.

"Peak value" isn't exactly the best way to measure Roger Clemens, who is ranked here on his 1986-92 peak with the Red Sox, although like Grove he had an even better ERA+ over his second peak, which spans the strike-shortened 1994-95 seasons and runs through his 1997-98 tenure with the Blue Jays. Clemens also posted an ERA+ of 180 in 180 innings a year from age 41-43 with the Astros (career ERA+ by team: 196 with the Jays, 180 with the Astros, 145 with the Red Sox, 114 with the Yankees). It's the cumulative effect of those multiple peaks that makes his career one of the inner-circle ones.

Ed Walsh, the big spitballer, threw a staggering 375 innings a year over his six-year prime (including a ridiculous even for the day 464 innings in 1908's equally insane American League pennant race, which the Tigers won at the expense of Walsh's White Sox), at the end of which his arm gave out.

I was there with my two older kids for the last game of Johan Santana's prime, the epic, arm-weary last win at Shea Stadium. I hope we see even a little of the old Santana again some day, but we've now had a few years' remove to reflect on how great he was in his two Cy Young, three ERA title prime.

Kid Nichols, a contemporary of Cy Young who also might have won 400 games if he hadn't spent two years in mid-career (age 32-33) as a pitcher-manager in the Western League (a 361 game winner in the majors, he won 47 games in those two seasons - among his 74 career minor league wins - and then picked up where he left off, going 21-13 with a 2.02 ERA at age 34). At his peak from 1895-99, Nichols was the ace of a Boston Braves juggernaut that repeatedly defeated the legendary Baltimore Orioles of the day.

The peak years here for Smokey Joe Wood include a litany of arm injuries following his monster season in 1912, when he went 34-5, threw 35 complete games and pitched 22 innings in the World Series at age 22; Wood averaged just 139 innings the next three seasons. Walter Johnson said it hurt his shoulder just watching Wood's straight overhand delivery. Then again, Wood had second and third careers as an outfielder and college baseball coach and lived to be 95.

Spud Chandler barely merits this list, as he appeared in just 5 games in 1944-45 and 17 at age 39 in 1947, his last season, and won his MVP award in 1943 against war-weakened competition. But when he was on the mound, he was outstanding.

The peak years for Tom Seaver run 1969-73, the two Mets miracle seasons, when he was truly The Franchise.

The last of these seasons for the great lefty screwballer Carl Hubbell is 1936, when he won his last 16 decisions before being beaten by the Yankees in the World Series, and don't include the following year when he won his first 8 on his way to a 22-8 season; his peak also includes the 1934 season when he staged his famous All-Star Game strikeout streak. Hubbell was another late starter, debuting at age 25 after an itinerant minor league career.

Bob Gibson is here for 1966-70; note that his ERA+ for 1966-67 was 132, and his ERA+ for 1969-70 was 146, but his 1968 season puts him over the top.

Addie Joss lost the pennant race in 1908 and was dead by April 1911, but for one glorious day in October 1908, the 28 year old Joss was perfect, beating Walsh in what has to be baseball's greatest pitching duel.

Roy Halladay's peak here runs through 2011. Appreciate this while it lasts, folks.

Rube Waddell from age 26-28 averaged 313 strikeouts in 345 innings a year, at the time an unheard-of strikeout rate; it may have helped Waddell a bit that batters were just getting acclimated to the new "foul ball counts as a strike" rule, but then again flamethrowing lefties were not that common in 1904; in fact, lefties were still something of a novelty at the time.

Ed Reulbach appears here for his first five seasons, 1905-09; his teammate Three Finger Brown appears for 1906-10. Other than Jim Palmer, there are probably few pitchers in the game's history who owe more to their defense than Reulbach, who like Brown got a lot of help from the team with the famous Tinker-Evers-Chance infield. Still, the only man ever to throw shutouts in both ends of a doubleheader could use to be remembered a little in his own right; an awful lot of pitchers in baseball history, and even in the Hall of Fame, didn't make this list.

PS - For obvious reasons, this list is limited to guys who pitched in the major leagues. But for what it's worth, Satchel Paige's ERA+ for his first two seasons in the American league was 146, and that's at age 41-42, albeit as a reliever and spot starter. It's pretty safe to say he'd have made this list in his prime.

Age 57. The brain tumors got the third strike past him that Calvin Schiraldi never could. A good man and a great ballplayer, gone too soon.

I put Carter in context in my Hall of Fame catchers column in 2009:

Gary Carter carried the heaviest catching workload of anybody whose prime spans eight or more years - a staggering 144 games caught per 162 team games (and this for a team, in Montreal, that often stacked up doubleheaders in August due to April snow-outs). If you watched Carter at the tail end of those years and the seasons that followed, you saw what a brutal toll the workload took on his body, as every aspect of his game unraveled. Carter is the classic guy whose numbers make more sense when you extract his prime from the wreckage that followed. Besides being a devastating power hitter, Carter was a very tough guy to run on until his last year in Montreal, and in an age when base thieving was running rampant in the National League. In New York he also mentored a talented young pitching staff, or rather shared that role with Keith Hernandez.

As I noted in that column, over the decade of his prime from 1977-86, Carter caught 38.5% of base thieves, while facing an enormous volume of opposing stolen base attempts. And while carrying that heavy defensive load, Carter averaged .274/.347/.474 with 26 HR and 92 RBI. I'd rank Carter behind Josh Gibson, Johnny Bench, Yogi Berra, and Mickey Cochrane, and maybe Mike Piazza given how much better a hitter Piazza was than Carter or any other catcher. But you'd have a hard time finding anybody else with a good case to rank above Carter (I'd put him ahead of Campanella, Dickey, Fisk, Pudge Rodriguez, Simmons and Posada), which in my book makes him the 5th best catcher in MLB history (given that Gibson never played in the majors).

Carter was baseball's Tim Tebow before there was a Tim Tebow - a cheery Christian off the field, tough as nails on it. Carter was the ultimate guy who never backed down, never gave up, never begged out. I loved, loved John Stearns as a kid; Carter had Stearns' toughness with more talent. He battled Stearns to a draw in home plate fight around 1978 or so. In the famous 1986 Mets-Reds brawl, after Ray Knight clocked Eric Davis, Carter took Davis out of the fight by tackling him with his mask under Davis' ribs, knocking the wind out of him.

Carter, of course, arrived with a bang in New York. His first game as a Met, April 9, 1985, he caught the whole game and hit a game-winning walkoff homer in the 10th inning against the Cardinals. His second game, two days later, he caught all 11 innings of a 2-1 win against the Cards. His third game, the next day, he homered in a 1-0 win. He caught the next day (another win), then homered and drove in two runs while catching a 4-0 win the following day. And yet Carter would get better: the last 62 games that year, while catching a young staff including the incomparable season by Dwight Gooden, Carter hit .300/.367/.599 with 21 HR and 59 RBI, while striking out just 18 times (this included his 5 homers in two days rampage in San Diego in September. This after a 1984 season when Carter became one of just four catchers (the others being Bench, Campanella and Darren Daulton) to lead the league in RBI.

By 1988, Carter was a shell of his former self, with his months-long home run drought stuck at 299 career homers a sad joke. But he still had one last great moment left, when he doubled in the winning runs in a 3-run rally in the ninth inning of Game One of the LCS, the Mets rallying to win after Daryl Strawberry snapped Orel Hershiser's scoreless streak earlier that inning.

Rest in Peace, Kid. Thanks for the memories.

UPDATE: Gus Ramsey has a great story about Carter at the Hall of Fame.

SECOND UPDATE: An emotional Keith Hernandez breaks down on air. Keith's a cool customer by nature, but this is what we're all feeling.

How tough was Carter? People forget exactly how many doubleheaders the Expos played in those days because of early season snow. From 1977-83, Gary Carter caught both ends of a doubleheader 40 times in 7 years (I counted games in the game log where he entered the game as a catcher and caught a few innings). In 1978, Carter caught both ends of ten doubleheaders. Ten. In September 1979, Carter caught both ends of a doubleheader 6 times in 13 days. In September 1981, Carter caught both ends of doubleheaders on consecutive days.

Carter drove in 101 runs in 1980 batting behind tablesetters who hit .257/.337/.363 and .224/.307/.293. In 1984, he led the league in RBI hitting behind a guy with a .301 OBP, on a team whose leadoff hitter was 43 years old, slow, and hit .259/.334/.295.

I should do roundups like this more often of the stuff I do on Twitter.

-Jose Reyes' hair sells for $10,200 in charity auction. The hair will play SS for the Mets.

-I largely agree with Victoria and with John McCain about Syria; the US has much stronger case for taking sides in Syria than it did in Libya.

-Looking back at the sad death of Ron Luciano.

-The one thing that's really booming in this economy - despite the best efforts of liberal activists and the Obama Administration to the contrary - is domestic oil and gas production. Frack, baby, frack!

-Science fail: an Oklahoma state Senator is apparently unaware that baby-making requires both a sperm & an egg.

-Yeah, sure, and being against Nazis is just what Elie Wiesel does to feel young & virile again. It is true that older people overestimate recurrence of the troubles of their youth. Ascribing this to "testosterone" is juvenile.

-Yet another "better Romney argument than Romney is making" column, this one with good ideas from Jim Pethokoukis. Call it a Prospectus for America.

-Dan Abrams debunks some of the myths around Citizens United.

-Then: "core symbol of right-wing radicalism" Now: Democratic mainstream. We always knew a lot of the anti-war stuff was just partisanship. Of course, unlike Greenwald, I regard this as a good thing for the country.

-Elvis Andrus focused on getting better. This seems like a unique goal to have.

-It's not even remotely inconsistent for Mitt Romney to profit from something while saying it should not be compulsory.

-John Edwards' 2008 presidential campaign is still spending money, even though it's in debt to taxpayers.

-The media's blind spot on religious liberty.

-Vin Scully on not retiring.

-I'd forgotten that, for idiosyncratic reasons, Reagan actually won the popular vote in the GOP primaries in 1968.

-The Wilpons try to get the Supreme Court interested in reversing a decision in the Madoff litigation.

While I write a lot about baseball and politics, I generally try to avoid mixing the two. But once this analogy occurred to me, having lived through both of their tenures as a Mets fan and Republican in the 1990s, it was irresistible:

Bobby Valentine is the Newt Gingrich of baseball managers.

Think about it. Both are essentially relics of the 1990s who have spent a good deal of the past decade as TV pundits, and have had to overcome the initial instinct to laugh at the sudden re-emergence of a once-controversial figure so long out of power. Both are restlessly intelligent, talkative to a fault, energetic to the point of being a whirlwind of activity, devious (in the "what will he think of next?" sense of being constantly alert for ways to exploit opportunities and gaps in the rules), prone to conflict with peers and occasional mutinies among their subordinates, and often overly impressed with their own intelligence. Both have that odd Kermit the Frog lump-in-the-throat tone to their voices, yet are nonetheless compelling speakers. Both had their first go-round ended by George W. Bush, more directly in the case of Bobby V (who Bush fired, rather than just stepping into a power vacuum he left behind). Both have been mostly successful throughout their careers, yet are back pursuing the largest prize that has evaded them. Both need to overcome the creeping suspicion that they're better suited to being scrappy insurgents than frontrunners.

The parallels are not perfect, of course. Valentine lacks Newt's command of history and his ugly marital record; Newt lacks Valentine's family connections (as Ralph Branca's son in law) or his status as a former phenom felled by misfortune (in 1970, Valentine hit .340/.389/.522 as a 20 year old shortstop in the Pacific Coast League, winning his second straight league MVP award - 39 doubles, 16 triples, 14 homers, 29 steals - but was just getting his sea legs as a 23 year old in the majors when he suffered a gruesome leg injury). But once you think about it, the similarities are obvious.

Time will tell which of them ends up with more to show for their return to the arena.

The results of the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot will be announced this afternoon at 2, and expectations are that Barry Larkin will be the sole candidate elected. There being no pitchers on this year's ballot worth discussing that I haven't beaten to death in years past (short summary: no on Jack Morris, no on Lee Smith), let us a take a look at the non-pitchers.

I've already laid out my case for Tim Raines by comparing him to the other tablesetters in my December 2007 Hardball Times column here and for Barry Larkin and against Alan Trammell in my January 2007 THT column on the middle infielders here. I touched on Javy Lopez, new to this year's ballot, in my January 2009 column on the catchers. In my first column in the series, in January 2006, I discussed the case for Fred McGriff and sort of for Bernie Williams, and against Tim Salmon, Dale Murphy, and Don Mattingly. To complete the picture you can check out my April 2010 column on the third basemen, which endorses the Veterans Committee's latest selection, Ron Santo.

Utiliizing the same methodology from those columns - that is, excerpting the "prime" seasons for each hitter and translating them into a common offensive context (you can get the details explained in the THT columns), let's put the whole lot of them in a chart with a number of of the other sluggers of the past 30 years (I included some but not all of the tablesetters, third basemen, middle infielders and catchers for additional context). They are sorted by the "Rate" metric (using the context-adjusted numbers, I multiplied SLG * OBP * Plate Appearances per 162 scheduled games) - obviously you then have to modify that with the things not included in the Rate (baserunning, double plays, fielding, and team/postseason successes) as well as bear in mind how many seasons each player is rated on and how many other more modestly productive years he had. It's a rough metric, but the basic concept of rating Hall of Famers mainly on their prime years is one I feel strongly about.

Player	Yrs	Oth	Ages	PA	Avg	SLG	OBP	SB	CS	DP	Rate	Ballot
Frank Thomas	10	2	23-32	684	0.314	0.573	0.423	3	2	17	165.7	Not Yet
Jeff Bagwell	13	0	23-35	685	0.294	0.541	0.396	16	6	16	146.8	YES
Wade Boggs	9	3	25-33	705	0.338	0.481	0.425	2	3	16	144.1	IN
Don Mattingly	6	1	23-28	684	0.329	0.550	0.372	1	1	15	140.2	YES
Albert Belle	9	0	24-32	674	0.293	0.573	0.362	10	4	20	140.1	Off
Edgar Martinez	9	4	32-40	618	0.313	0.537	0.422	3	2	13	139.9	YES
Jim Thome	10	4	24-33	631	0.277	0.556	0.397	1	1	8	139.3	Not Yet
Todd Helton	9	1	25-33	673	0.303	0.525	0.391	4	2	13	138.2	Not Yet
Manny Ramirez	14	2	23-36	621	0.302	0.566	0.392	2	2	16	137.8	Not Yet
Jason Giambi	9	2	27-35	613	0.287	0.540	0.415	1	1	11	137.5	Not Yet
Gary Sheffield	10	3	27-36	632	0.298	0.537	0.404	12	5	12	137.2	Not Yet
Rafael Palmeiro	12	2	26-37	698	0.283	0.532	0.363	6	2	12	134.9	YES
Fred McGriff	9	3	24-32	658	0.283	0.544	0.375	6	3	15	134.1	YES
Sammy Sosa	10	1	25-34	670	0.282	0.570	0.351	14	6	13	134.0	Not Yet
Ken Griffey jr	11	2	20-30	643	0.290	0.567	0.366	15	5	11	133.7	Not Yet
Dale Murphy	8	0	24-31	681	0.276	0.535	0.361	17	6	12	131.7	YES
Eddie Murray	14	1	21-34	671	0.296	0.519	0.374	6	2	15	130.0	IN
Mark McGwire	13	0	23-35	549	0.266	0.601	0.389	1	1	11	128.3	YES
Chipper Jones	13	3	24-36	621	0.303	0.529	0.390	10	3	15	128.1	Not Yet
Mike Piazza	10	4	24-33	590	0.319	0.572	0.379	2	2	18	127.9	Not Yet
Criag Biggio	9	4	25-33	720	0.299	0.459	0.385	34	10	6	127.3	Not Yet
Jim Edmonds	6	4	30-35	590	0.285	0.557	0.387	6	4	7	127.0	Not Yet
Bernie Williams	9	1	25-33	649	0.309	0.504	0.388	13	7	15	126.8	YES
Dwight Evans	10	5	28-37	659	0.274	0.505	0.377	4	2	13	125.4	Off
John Olerud	10	3	24-33	650	0.301	0.475	0.399	1	1	17	123.2	Off
Keith Hernandez	11	1	23-33	666	0.301	0.473	0.388	9	5	12	122.5	Off
Paul Molitor	10	7	30-39	667	0.316	0.484	0.379	26	6	12	122.3	IN
Kirby Puckett	10	0	25-34	678	0.317	0.506	0.356	10	6	18	122.2	IN
Rickey Henderson	14	7	21-34	621	0.296	0.476	0.413	78	17	8	122.0	IN
Jim Rice	12	0	22-33	665	0.294	0.530	0.345	5	3	23	121.4	IN
Robin Yount	10	0	24-33	658	0.306	0.507	0.364	15	4	12	121.4	IN
Tim Raines	9	6	21-29	645	0.304	0.481	0.389	67	10	8	120.9	YES
Bobby Bonilla	10	1	25-34	651	0.285	0.514	0.359	3	4	13	120.2	Off
Will Clark	12	2	23-34	606	0.302	0.510	0.377	5	3	7	116.6	Off
Tony Gwynn	14	2	24-37	624	0.342	0.480	0.389	22	8	16	116.2	IN
Darryl Strawberry	9	0	21-29	571	0.267	0.554	0.360	22	9	6	114.0	Off
Mark Grace	11	3	25-35	667	0.303	0.450	0.373	6	4	15	112.0	Off
Tim Salmon	11	0	24-34	614	0.276	0.489	0.372	4	4	8	111.7	YES
Al Oliver	11	2	25-35	626	0.312	0.503	0.348	6	5	15	109.8	Off
Juan Gonzalez	11	0	21-31	586	0.290	0.559	0.333	2	2	15	109.0	YES
Larry Walker	13	0	24-36	541	0.294	0.535	0.369	16	5	10	106.9	YES
Jack Clark	14	0	22-35	534	0.271	0.522	0.383	4	4	12	106.7	Off
Andre Dawson	11	4	25-35	607	0.285	0.530	0.330	20	6	12	106.2	IN
Dave Parker	12	2	24-35	595	0.295	0.518	0.342	12	8	12	105.3	Off
Jorge Posada	8	3	28-35	574	0.275	0.474	0.377	2	2	15	102.5	Not Yet
Barry Larkin	9	4	27-35	567	0.295	0.473	0.377	28	5	11	101.3	YES
Alan Trammell	11	1	22-32	613	0.292	0.451	0.358	17	8	9	99.1	YES
Javy Lopez	10	1	24-33	472	0.282	0.483	0.326	1	2	14	74.3	YES

For most of these guys, picking the prime years is easy - in a few cases, like Palmeiro, Manny, and Sheffield, you could debate going a year or two more or less, but it doesn't affect the analysis much. But a couple of the candidates can be sliced in different ways. Raines and McGriff both had the same career pattern: a slightly shorter 8-9 year peak of superstardom, followed by a long tail of being a good but not great everyday player, followed in Raines' case by a 3-year coda with the Yankees as a successful and productive platoon/role player on a championship team. This has the unfortunate effect, especially since both players' latter years were much higher-scoring, of people forgetting how dominant they were at their peaks. Bagwell's career path is a better version of the same, with his best 8-year stretch being out of this world. Then there's Edgar, who was an absolute offensive monster for 7 years; the two years after that were good enough that I included them above, while the prior 5 included some great work (his 1991 batting title) but also a lot of time lost to injury. I include 3 different cuts on Edgar so you can judge for yourself.

Player	Yrs	Oth	Ages	PA	Avg	SLG	OBP	SB	CS	DP	Rate	Ballot
Jeff Bagwell	8	5	26-35	695	0.297	0.567	0.409	19	7	15	161.1	YES
Edgar Martinez	7	6	32-38	650	0.318	0.550	0.426	3	2	14	152.2	YES
Fred McGriff	7	2	24-30	650	0.286	0.567	0.385	6	3	13	141.8	YES
Edgar Martinez	14	0	27-40	578	0.311	0.523	0.412	3	2	13	124.4	YES
Fred McGriff	15	0	24-38	644	0.281	0.511	0.367	5	2	15	120.8	YES
Tim Raines	15	0	21-35	631	0.296	0.456	0.382	54	10	8	109.9	YES
Fred McGriff	8	7	31-38	640	0.277	0.468	0.352	3	2	16	105.4	YES
Tim Raines	9	9	30-38	507	0.285	0.416	0.370	25	6	7	78.0	YES

My short answer is that of the 14 or 15 serious candidates (I say 14, discounting Tim Salmon), there are 2 no-brainers: Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines. I realize Raines doesn't stick out as well on this chart as when you compare him to the other tablesetters, but when you roll in his very high-value base thievery, few GIDP and longetivity, I think he clears the bar easily. There's one more to me who is a fairly easy call: Fred McGriff. As I've said before, among the shortstops I go with Larkin and not Trammell, and among the pre-1994 sluggers I find Mattingly's and Murphy's prime years too short, and Dave Parker's numbers weighed down by the big performance-detracting drug phase in the middle of his prime (Edited: I forgot that Parker's off the ballot now). Javy Lopez had a season or two of genuine Hall-worthy production, but he doesn't make the cut; Jorge Posada, who retired this weekend, should but that's another year's debate.

Then you get to the PED-era sluggers. Realistically, there's actually not a huge gulf between a number of the guys on this ballot who make it, and those who don't. Some just were healthier, more durable, in circumstances more suited to their talents than others. And that's precisely why the PEDs are such a big issue.

A brief digression, since the issue is unavoidable. I'm sort of in the middle on a lot of steroids debates. I reject the simplistic argument that steroids are of no help to performance in baseball. I find something suspicious in, especially, the unique aging pattern of Barry Bonds, and there is no question that Mark McGwire in particular used PEDs to help him get healthy again in the second half of his career. And while I understand why people expect more of baseball players, I accept the argument that there's never been a true age of innocence in Major League Baseball. And I'm sick of the agendas on all sides of the debate. In the end, for a variety of reasons, I say we ignore PEDs, put in the guys who got the job done on the field, and let the arguments follow.

Setting that aside, I start with Palmeiro, who was a paragon of consistent productivity for 12-13 years. To me, the fact that his teams could bank on his performance is a huge factor.

At the other end you have Juan Gonzalez and Larry Walker, Gonzalez with Hall of Fame power, Walker with a more complete package of skills. But you see them even below the less glamorous Tim Salmon on the chart because neither had the in-season durability over their primes. So, an easy no on Gonzalez, Walker and Salmon.

That brings us to the three hard cases: McGwire, Edgar and Bernie. I do think setting them next to the other sluggers of that era is helpful - whether we know it or not, we're already setting the stage for what we will do when Thomas, Thome, Helton, Manny, Giambi, Sheffield, Sosa, Griffey and Edmonds get on the ballot. Poor Albert Belle already got stampeded off the ballot, despite the fact that his offensive prime tops any of those guys but Thomas and Bagwell by this measurement.

Bernie, like Griffey, gets a leg up for being a center fielder (a good one, albeit with a bad arm), and of course for being one of the core players on a legitimate dynasty. I'm inclined to vote yes on Bernie, even though that means a very crowded list of Yankees from that era (Jeter and Rivera will go in, Torre probably will, Raines, Posada and Mussina should, Sheffield should, Clemens and A-Rod will unless the writers are really ridiculous about PEDs, and that's before you get to Giambi and Pettitte, to say nothing of the not-so-far-off-the-pace guys like O'Neill, Ventura, Strawberry, Knoblauch, Gooden, Cone and Justice). But really all that is on 9 years' worth of prime production, not an especially long stretch for a guy who was never dominant.

I'm really conflicted on all three. McGwire strikes me as a Hall of Famer due to his amazing power numbers and great OBPs over a 13 year span, and gets some credit for playing for a team that won 3 straight pennants and a championship. But his injuries put him at the back of this pack, although by this measure he still stands ahead of Edgar over their 13/14 year primes.

Edgar is also a very tough call. Elite, Hall-quality hitter, no doubt. But even aside from the negatives we incorporate here (high-scoring offensive context, durability issues), Edgar has everything else going against him: zero defensive value, slow baserunner, played for teams that consistently underacheived despite an amazing talent core, a career mark of .156/.239/.234 in three ALCS (compared, to be fair, to .375/.481/.781 in four ALDS). I certainly would not be offended at including a guy of Edgar's elite status as a hitter, but the case for him seems much weaker to me than it seems to a lot of sabermetrically-inclined folks who tend to total up his career numbers and ignore the injury-driven holes in his playing time.

The thing that struck me the most is that when you set aside their mystiques and the offsetting virtues of Edgar's high batting averages vs Big Mac's homers, what you see is that their cases are quite similar. That doesn't mean you can't reach opposite conclusions based on the factors at the margins, as I do with Larkin and Trammell, but it does suggest that just writing one of the two in and the other one out should not be done without a thorough analysis. If forced to vote, I'd pull the lever today for Bernie and McGwire but not Edgar, but I could easily be persuaded to the contrary for any of the three. That leaves us:

YES
Jeff Bagwell
Tim Raines
Fred McGriff
Rafael Palmeiro
Barry Larkin
Mark McGwire
Bernie Williams*

NO
Edgar Martinez
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
Jack Morris
Lee Smith
Don Mattingly
Dale Murphy
Juan Gonzalez
Tim Salmon*
Javy Lopez*

* - First time candidates. Also no on the rest of the first timers, of which the best is probably Ruben Sierra.

Finally, for what it's worth, below the fold is another quick set of metrics on the career numbers.

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