Category: Baseball 2005

Lyford has some thoughts about the Red Sox’ problem child. Read the whole thing.

Fact one: The Mets are last in the National League in OBP at .320 (the Phillies and Marlins are first at .346 each).
Fact two: Since his arrival in Texas, Alfonso Soriano’s batting line on the road is as follows:

G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	SLG	OBP
119	501	121	21	1	23	63	64	27	120	18	.242	.425	.280

Conclusion: Yes, I’d take Soriano; his power and speed would still be an upgrade on Miguel Cairo, and I’d expect him to hit a little better than the numbers above. But I wouldn’t give up much of value for him – nothing on the order of, say, Lenny Dykstra, Roger McDowell and Tom Edens or Jeff Kent and Jose Vizcaino.

*I wasn’t a big fan of the Kris Benson contract, but you certainly can’t complain about the results so far. His wife has even produced more than the expected comic relief.
*I know I’ve made this point before, but Carlos Beltran this season is hitting .388/.653/.423 in the late innings of close games, .320/.569/.374 with men on base, .295/.547/.351 with runners in scoring position, .353/.569/.450 with runners on base and two outs, and .458/.958/.438 with a man on third and less than two outs. Complain, if you will, that Beltran has not hit enough, in general. But complaints that Beltran hasn’t risen to the occasion in clutch situations are absurd. His problem has been the opposite of the A-Rod issue: he’s come up with the big hits when needed, but he hasn’t done enough to put games away in the first few innings.
*I’ve never seen a systematic study of the issue, but Marlon Anderson’s remarkable success this year is further support for the idea that slap hitters who make a lot of contact are uniquely well-suited to pinch hitting duty.
*I was having the discussion again about Jeff Kent as a Hall of Fame candidate, a subject I intend to return to in more detail later. But here’s the amazing thing: when the Mets traded Kent for Carlos Baerga, Kent had done nearly nothing to make himself a Hall of Fame candidate, and Baerga was washed up. Today, Baerga is still playing – and in the time since he proved himself decisively over the hill, Kent has been able to amass an arguable Hall of Fame career. Amazing.
*As frustrating as Jose Reyes has been – and doubly so, Willie Randolph’s failure to understand that Reyes is not a leadoff man – consider that the average NL #1 and #2 hitters are batting .274/.285/.336 and .266/.396/.327 (and both of those OBP figures are up quite a bit in the past two weeks). So, the Mets aren’t the only ones having trouble getting guys on base.
*Doug Minky’s numbers, projected to 600 at bats: 29 homers and 72 walks. For all the concern about bringing in a 1B without any punch, that hasn’t been the problem; it’s his .227 batting average that’s been killing him. Since June 1, Minky is batting .265/.515/.333. More of that, please.

For what it’s worth, Tom Glavine’s 269th career win yesterday pushes him ahead of Jim Palmer on the all-time list.
UPDATE: Let’s update this chart through July 20:

Pitcher	Thru 35	At 36-37	Thru 37	At 38	Thru 38	After
Maddux	257	32	289	16	305	*8
Carlton	249	36	285	15	300	29
Clemens	233	27	260	20	280	*55
Seaver	245	19	264	9	273	38
Grove	223	34	257	14	271	29
Spahn	203	43	246	21	267	96
Sutton	230	28	258	8	266	58
Glavine	224	27	251	11	262	*7
Wynn	201	34	235	14	249	51
Perry	198	33	231	15	246	68
Ryan	205	26	231	10	241	83
R.Johnson	160	40	200	24	224	*32
Mussina	211	*9	*220	—	*220	—
Martinez	*193	—	*193	—	*193	—
Niekro	131	32	163	16	179	139

* – And counting
Pedro, of course, is still just 33.

As I have stressed repeatedly (see here and here), today’s off day is decision day for Mets management. Given the need to gain ground on the NL East, I argued that the Mets needed to go at least 11-6 against the NL East in their now-concluded stretch of playing 17 of 23 against their own division, and at least 3-3 in the other six games. As it turned out, they went 10-7 against the East and 4-2 in the other six, for the same 13-10 14-9 record, but with less impact on the rest of the division. But they are still in last place, 7 games back of Washington and – far more important – 5.5 games behind the Braves. Maybe someone will pull Bobby Cox’s Braves down from behind some day, but it hasn’t happened yet.
The Mets now won’t see their own division again until August 30. It’s possible that they could hang around, maybe gain a little ground in the interim, and then get blazing hot in September. That possibility is fairly distant, and they shouldn’t fool themselves into surrendering anything of real future value to chase it.
Then again, the value of staying in the race is nothing to sneer at. Even if the Mets win 83 games, they can say they’ve posted their first winning record in four years and their best record since winning the pennant in 2000, and that would be something positive to build on for next year.
More to the point, the team isn’t bursting with guys with a high ratio of present trade value to future value. Piazza’s the top “old guy who’s contract’s up,” but (1) the dropoff in 2005 to Ramon Castro is severe, and (2) Piazza’s hitting has been mediocre enough that he wouldn’t draw a lot of value. Floyd and Cameron would, but they’re also signed for one more year apiece (I believe) at reasonable enough prices. Looper is at a low ebb right now, and might be more useful in the future.
As a result, perhaps the best posture for the Mets entering the deadline is to listen to offers – I wouldn’t hesitate to deal any of those three guys – but not feel the need to trade them. In other words, rather than letting the desire to win now panic you, use it to convince people they need to make it worth your while to drop out of the race.
That said, there are guys they should dump. Glavine still has his moments, but the Mets should not want to pick up his option for next year. If a contender is willing to part with anything at all, they should move him. Ishii should be given his walking papers if no one will take him, and Graves should be sent back to AAA. Matsui would be addition by subtraction at this point, although no one would be interested in him for the 2005 stretch run.
Fans always like to be buying or selling at the deadline, and for the right price the Mets could sell. But if the right price doesn’t come, they should know when to hold em.

Following yesterday’s look at teams that have departed from their preseason EWSL numbers, I decided to take a look at the Brewers, who are #2 on the list of teams furthest from their EWSL, and first compared to their Pythagorean record thus far this season; EWSL is prorated to 88 games (through the Break):

Pos	Age	Player	EWSL	WS	WSAB	+/-
C	35	Damian Miller	4	5	0	+1
1B	28	Lyle Overbay	9	9	3	–
2B	30	Junior Spivey	5	2	-2	-3
SS	22	JJ Hardy	7	3	-1	-4
3B	29	Russ Branyan	3	6	4	+3
RF	30	Geoff Jenkins	7	7	1	–
CF	32	Brady Clark	4	12	5	+8
LF	29	Carlos Lee	10	16	9	+6
C2	30	Chad Moeller	2	2	0	–
INF	29	Wes Helms	3	2	0	-1
OF	28	Chris Magruder	1	2	0	+1
12	25	Bill Hall	4	9	4	+5
13	35	Jeff Cirilllo	1	4	1	+3
2B	22	Rickie Weeks	—	4	2	+4
1B	21	Prince Fielder	—	2	1	+2
OF	23	Dave Krynzel	—	0	-1	0
TOT			60	85	26	+25

WSAB is a measure of marginal Win Shares against the number expected of a replacement-level player with a similar amount of playing time. I included it here so you can see which guys are falling short of their EWSL due to poor quality play vs. lack of playing time. I included three players here (Weeks, Fielder and Krynzel) who I hadn’t projected in the preseason but who have contributed. Of course, adding three extra players means the team should come in a bit ahead of its preseason numbers.
You can see a substantial improvement in the lineup, which only promises to get better as Hall, Weeks, Branyan and Cirillo (!) soak up the playing time previously given to the departed Spivey. Aside from Hall and Weeks, Brady Clark and Carlos Lee have been the big improvements, although in Lee’s case I’m a little puzzled, as he’s having your basic Carlos Lee season. I’m less optimistic that Clark can sustain quite this level – he’s 32 and never played regularly until last year – but even so, he’s been quite a find and should continue to help.
Now to the pitchers:

Pos	Age	Player	EWSL	WS	WSAB	+/-
SP1	26	Ben Sheets	8	4	2	-4
SP2	29	Doug Davis	5	6	2	+1
SP3	26	Chris Capuano	1	8	4	+7
SP4	28	Victor Santos	1	4	1	+3
SP5	28	Gary Glover	2	-1	-3	-3
CL	26	Michael Adams	3	1	1	-2
R2	35	Ricky Bottalico	1	2	1	+1
R3	25	Jeff Bennett	2	–	–	-2
R4	29	Matt Wise	1	4	2	+3
R5	28	Wes Obermuller	2	2	1	–
RP	27	Derrick Turnbow	—	6	4	+6
RP	32	Julio Santana	—	2	0	+2
RP	31	Tommy Phelps	—	1	0	+1
RP	24	Jorge De La Rosa	—	1	0	+1
SP	29	Tomo Ohka	—	1	0	+1
TOT			26	41	15	+15

The extra share for the pitchers is smaller, in large part because Ben Sheets has been hurt and because Gary Glover has underperformed some very low expectations. It’s hard to see Victor Santos as part of the solution when he’s 2-9, but he’s pitched well. Capuano and Turnbow, the rookie closer, have been the big steps forward.
Check out Al Bethke’s roundtable on the Brew Crew’s first half for a more in-depth look.

While we’re stopped for the All-Star Break, I thought I’d look at the projected standings I did before the season (see the NL standings here and AL here) by comparison to the actual standings at the break. I’m presenting the teams in order from the teams most overachieving compared to their EWSL standings to those falling furthest off the pace (I’ve prorated the EWSL wins to the number of games each team has played so far):

Team	Wins	EWSL	+/-
ChW	57	41	+16
Mil	42	33	+9
Cle	47	40	+7
Was	52	46	+6
Atl	50	45	+5
Tex	46	41	+5
Det	42	37	+5
StL	56	52	+4
Bal	47	44	+3
Hou	44	41	+3
Min	48	46	+2
Tor	44	42	+2
LAA	52	51	+1
Pit	39	38	+1
SD	48	48	—
Az	43	43	—
NYM	44	45	-1
KC	30	32	-2
LAD	40	43	-3
Col	31	34	-3
Bos	49	53	-4
Oak	44	48	-4
ChC	43	48	-5
Sea	39	44	-5
Cin	35	39	-5
Fla	44	50	-6
Phi	45	52	-7
NYA	46	54	-8
TB	28	37	-9
SF	37	47	-10

Overall, the divisions come in as follows: AL Central, +28; NL Central, +7; NL East and AL West, -3 each; AL East and NL West, -16 each; AL overall, +7; NL overall, -12; MLB in total, -5, which means that some of the differences here can be explained just by rounding. On average, AL teams were 5.21 games off their EWSL records, NL teams 4.25 off, MLB as a whole, 4.7.
That’s not a great record, but it’s too early even now to declare it a big failure. Some teams will always deviate from even the most perfect pre-season estimates, due to trades, unforeseeable injuries, unexpected rookies.
No surprise that the biggest underachievers have been the Giants, since the pre-season EWSL standings were predicated on them having Bonds for half the season, and he hasn’t arrived yet.
Also unsurprisingly, several of the teams that are out of whack with their EWSL numbers tend to be the same teams that are way over or under their Pythagorean projections – in other words, their players are playing closer to expectations than their records would suggest. Conspicuous examples include the White Sox (+16 vs. EWSL, +6 vs. Pythagorean record), Nationals (+6/+8), and Mariners (-5/-3). But there are counterexamples as well: the Brewers are +9 vs. EWSL while being -4 vs. their Pythagorean record, the Braves (+5/-4), the Indians (+7/-2), and the Diamondbacks (0/+7). On the whole, the average distance between the EWSL and Pythagorean records is 4.7 games – just exactly the same as with actual records.
I was surprised to discover that EWSL had consistently failed to grasp how bad the really bad teams would be – all the moreso because I thought before the season that the method was being unduly harsh on the Royals, Rockies and Devil Rays. Not hard enough, apparently.
Anyway, I may take a look at some of the big outliers, and I’ll have to go back at the end of the year and see how EWSL did, and why, and whether there are further refinements to the method that will improve its predictive value, or whether its shortcomings as a predictor are just the inherent limitations of using past performance to predict the future.

You know, it’s easy to get cynical about the All-Star Game when you’ve seen so many of them and seen the way they are treated as something of a circus, with players run in and out of the games to get everyone an at bat. I’ve almost reached the point where watching the game is a chore, something I do as much as anything to make sure I don’t miss something memorable, in case something memorable happens (like the year they ended the game in a tie – that was about the most excitement we’ve had in an All-Star Game the past 15 years).
So it was quite a different experience last night watching the game with my son. It was his 8th birthday, so we let him stay up late to watch most of the game, and he and I set up on the living room floor watching the All-Stars and building Star Wars-themed Lego sets; does it get better than that? Once I explained the concept of the game, he really got into rooting for the National League, and kept complaining “that’s not fair” when, say, Carlos Beltran hit into a double play. (I had some difficulty explaining the difference between David Wright and Cliff Floyd being the Mets best hitters this year vs. Beltran and Piazza starting the All-Star Game, but that’s another issue; at least the DH rule meant that I didn’t have to explain why Albert Pujols wasn’t starting the game even though he’s the best player in baseball right now).
Anyway, some other random thoughts that came to me:
*I guess the Carlos Lee for Scott Podsednik deal has worked out about as well for both sides as could possibly be imagined, with Lee leading the NL in RBI and S-Pod (OK, never mind that one) leading off for the team with the best record in baseball.
*I had to explain to my wife why Kenny Rogers was booed, and that this was for different reasons from why he would be booed at Shea Stadium, which is for for different reasons from why he would be booed at Yankee Stadium.
*Fox is premiering a new sitcom called “The War at Home” . . . on September 11? Please tell me that’s a mistake.
*I was retelling the story about how Bret Saberhagen’s wife gave birth during the 1985 World Series and didn’t tell him until after he’d pitched. Then it hit me: Saberhagen was 20 then, and that was 20 years ago, so the kid is now the same age Saberhagen was at the time. That really made me feel old.
*Ex-Mets and ex-Mets farmhands in the All-Star game: Jeff Kent, Jason Bay, Melvin Mora, Kenny Rogers, Jason Isringhausen. Please don’t ask me what they got in return for any of those guys.

It would be difficult – especially in a non-division game against a mediocre team – for the Mets to suffer a more demoralizing loss than Friday night’s game, in which they squandered all the momentum from taking 3 of 4 from the first-place Nationals by blowing a 5-1 lead over the Pirates in the ninth inning. I’m not yet expecting a second-half collapse such as the team had had in each of the past three years, but it’s hard to watch a game like Friday’s and not come away convinced that this team will never get far from .500.
Looking at the standings, it’s obvious that this is Atlanta’s division to lose. Only the Braves and Nationals are more than two games over .500, and the Nationals have allowed more runs than they’ve scored and are hobbled until Nick Johnson, their best player, returns from injury; they’ve lost 5 of their last 7 games. The Braves, meanwhile, have reloaded rapidly with young players, plus they’re the Braves. I’m not optimistic about the second half being anything but a replay of the last decade.

I said two weeks ago that the Mets needed to go at least 11-6 against the NL East in their current stretch of playing 17 of 23 against their own division, if they wanted to remain sufficiently serious 2005 contenders to justify hanging on to veterans they could otherwise deal at the deadline. With yesterday’s victory over the Nationals, the Mets are now 7-5 in that stretch, leaving them 42-42 and in last place, two games behind third place Florida, five behind wild-card-leading Atlanta and nine behind the overachieving Nats (who have allowed more runs than they’ve scored, strongly suggesting a second-half collapse). I stand by what I said: the Mets are still just outside the race looking in, and if they can’t take the dramatic step of taking four of five between today’s game against Washington and the four game set against Atlanta, they shouldn’t be maneuvering themselves for a futile pennant chase this fall.

How hot are the Indians? Just check out their numbers since May 21, via David Pinto’s Day by Day database:
Batting
Pitching
If you’re in a Rotisserie league, I hope you were able to snap up Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner and Jake Westbrook while their stock was down earlier in the year (I was able to snag Martinez in one of my leagues). And has their been a bigger dark-horse rookie this year than Jhonny Peralta?

Pedro is now allowing 0.817 baserunners per inning pitched. If he keeps this up, he will place 7th on the all-time single-season list (the record is 0.737, set by Pedro in 2000; Greg Maddux in 1995 is the only other pitcher to place in the top 10 since 1913).

I’ll believe that the Mets are or were close to dealing Mike Cameron and Miguel Cairo for Gary Sheffield when I see such a deal go through. That’s a deal that sounds like something a Mets fan would get laughed at for peddling on WFAN, not something Brian Cashman would agree to, no matter how desperate the Hated Yankees are for a center fielder and how well Cameron has hit this season and how much Joe Torre loved Cairo and even how willing the Mets might be to take on additional salary. Aside from the various quotes from Sheffield about how he won’t go anywhere, Sheffield is the Yankees’ third-best player at the moment, a career .298/.527/.400 hitter who shows no sign of slowing down, and the Mets could get him without parting with a pitcher or anybody under 30? That only makes sense if he’s in more hot water over the steroids issue than we know.
Would I do the deal if it was offered, were I the Mets? Of course. The Mets lose nothing from their ability to win in the future, and greatly help their odds to win now. But it’s not gonna happen. George wouldn’t green-light something that carries such a large risk of looking bad at the expense of the Mets.

Of course, that guy in the background has a distinguished record.

It is officially time to worry about Keith Foulke. After last night’s debacle, Foulke has a 6.03 ERA and the numbers to back it up – he’s allowed 8 homers and 14 walks in 37.1 innings, compared to 8 and 15 in 83 innings last year. His K/9 are down to less than 7 from close to 9. This is now past the point of “bad start” to “bad year,” and maybe then some. I have to wonder if he’s physically 100%.

The link on CBSSportsline to this article read “Boss summons his minions to Tampa.” I figured Steinbrenner must be the only person in public life who gets to have “minions.” Then again, this Google News link suggests the term is more commonly used than I thought.

As you will recall, my preseason Established Win Shares Levels analysis concurred with the general consensus that the Hated Yankees had the most talented team in the American League. But the 2005 season has thus far had other plans for the Yanks. Over at The Hardball Times, we can look at the semi-current (through last Thursday, when they were 37-34) Win Shares totals for the Yankees. Where have they gone wrong? Let’s compare the EWSL totals, projected over a 71 game season, to the Yankees’ actual Win Shares through 71 games to identify the culprits. First, the non-pitchers:

Pos	Age	Player	EWSL	WS	WSAB	+/-
C	33	Jorge Posada	7	9	4	+2
1B	37	Tino Martinez	5	4	1	-1
2B	35	Tony Womack	4	2	-3	-2
SS	31	Derek Jeter	9	10	4	+1
3B	29	Alex Rodriguez	12	15	9	+3
RF	31	Hideki Matsui	9	10	5	+1
CF	36	Bernie Williams	7	4	0	-3
LF	36	Gary Sheffield	11	16	11	+5
DH	34	Jason Giambi	7	5	2	-2
C2	37	John Flaherty	1	0	-2	-1
INF	37	Rey Sanchez	2	0	0	-2
OF	39	Ruben Sierra	3	2	1	-1
INF	27	Damian Rolls	1	0	0	-1
2B	22	Robinson Cano	—	3	0	+3
OF	28	Bubba Crosby	—	0	-1	0
TOT			78	80	31	+2

WSAB is a measure of marginal Win Shares against the number expected of a replacement-level player with a similar amount of playing time. I included it here so you can see which guys are falling short of their EWSL due to poor quality play vs. lack of playing time. I included one player here (Damian Rolls) who I had projected in the preseason but hasn’t played, and two (Crosby and Cano) I didn’t project who have. Of course, adding one extra player means the team should come in a bit ahead of its preseason numbers.
As you can see, while the Yankee lineup has some problems – principally the aging support players Giambi, Bernie, Tino and Womack falling short of even their modest, age-adjusted expectations – the Yanks have more than covered this by getting greater even than expected performance from their stars, notably Sheffield, A-Rod and Posada.
You know what that means. The pitchers:

Pos	Age	Player	EWSL	WS	WSAB	+/-
SP1	41	Randy Johnson	7	6	2	-1
SP2	36	Mike Mussina	5	6	3	+1
SP3	29	Carl Pavano	5	2	-1	-3
SP4	40	Kevin Brown	4	2	0	-2
SP5	29	Jaret Wright	3	-1	-2	-4
CL	35	Mariano Rivera	4	6	3	+2
R2	37	Tom Gordon	4	3	2	-1
R3	36	Paul Quantrill	3	0	-1	-3
R4	32	Felix Rodriguez	2	0	0	-2
R5	38	Mike Stanton	2	0	0	-2
SP	25	Chien-Ming Wang	—	3	2	+3
RP	34	Tanyon Sturtze	—	3	1	+3
RP	39	Buddy Groom	—	1	0	+1
SP	24	Sean Henn	—	0	-1	0
TOT			39	31	8	-8

There you have it: a falloff of 15 Win Shares (5 whole wins) from the guys who were counted before the season, and a net loss of 8 Win shares (almost 3 wins) even including the guys who weren’t counted. The damage was mainly done at the back of the rotation and bullpen: Mussina at +1 and Randy Johnson at -1 vs. their expected Win Shares are actually a wash, and Mariano, like the stars in the lineup, is doing his best to carry the stragglers. But Pavano, Brown, Wright, Quantrill, Stanton and Felix Rodriguez at -16 are just killing the Yanks; all that money spent on added pitching depth in the offseason went straight down the tubes.
Looking at these numbers also reassured me that my age adjustments weren’t too harsh, and in some cases were too mild: the eight Yankees age 37 and over are at a net loss of 11 Win Shares against even their diminished expectations.

Not much to add to last night’s bitterly disappointing missed opportunity to sweep the Hated Yankees while they were playing defense like a beer league softball team that had gotten out of shape over the winter. Braden Looper just blew it, with a little help from David Wright not guarding the line with a man on first, nobody out and a 1-run lead in the bottom of the 9th. Looper’s not a terrible closer and he’s not a particularly expensive one, but he’s definitely not a positive in his role.

David Pinto notes Manny Ramirez’ progress in chasing Lou Gehrig’s career record for grand slams.

The Wall Street Journal had an entertaining article Friday ($) about how home teams screw around with the schedule to have more night games on getaway days, leaving the visitors to depart bleary-eyed; apparently this has become a particularly common tactic in an escalating war of minor indignities fought between the Devil Rays and the Hated Yankees.
The NY Times also had an interesting article – no longer web-available – on the question of what to call the Mets’ new stadium, which presumably will not be named after William Shea, the lawyer who brought National League baseball back to New York. Of course, Shea’s family has no cause to complain (as, mostly, they don’t) – it was honor enough that the Mets played in a park bearing his name for four decades, and that five four World Serieses (the four by the Mets plus 1976) were played there, and one All-Star Game.
UPDATE: Dr. Manhattan reminds me that Yankee Stadium was, in fact, open in time for the 1976 World Series.
As I should have noted, the candidates for a new Mets stadium name would be either Jackie Robinson Stadium or a corporate sponsor. I’m fine with a corporate sponsor as long as it is (1) not something ridiculous (I think my favorite, from college football, is the infamous Poulan Weedeater Independence Bowl), and (2) not a bank, telecom company or other company likely to change its name every three years.

Vinny Castilla, month by month:

Month	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS
April	.347	.613	.395	1008
May	.245	.327	.339	666
June	.176	.257	.215	472

Yup, after that hot start, Castilla has been worse than worthless. Another reason why my Hacking MASS team over at Baseball Prospectus has surged to #65 out of 1,859 teams. My roster:

Position	Player	2005 ESPN
Catcher	Mike Matheny	10
First Base	Darin Erstad	19
Second Base	Tony Womack	71
Third Base	Vinny Castilla	25
Shortstop	Alex Gonzalez	22
Left Field	Scott Podsednik	23
Center Field	Marquis Grissom	36
Right Field	Jacque Jones	8
Pitcher 1	Jose Lima	97
Pitcher 2	Russ Ortiz	49
Total		360

The interesting question is whether the Nationals will eventually bail out on Castilla. Naturally, the hot April has made it that much harder to do.

It’s not just Bill James and Voros McCracken crunching numbers for Theo.

Well, Pedro quieted the howling masses at Yankee Stadium tonight, with a little help from two great center fielders and some horrible defense by the Hated Yankees. You know, the whole “who’s your daddy” chant is just tiresome. And worse: it’s a clear message that you should never show respect for the Yankees, because it will just get rammed back down your throat for the rest of your career. Good riddance, for one night, at least.

I was down this road last week, but I thought it would be worth revisiting in more detail today. The Mets through 72 games now stand 35-37. Does that mean that this team is going to finish around .500, let alone contend? Hardly, given recent history:

Year	Thru 72	After
1991	39-33	38-51
1992	36-37	37-53
2002	37-35	38-51
2003	33-39	33-56
2004	36-36	35-55
2005	35-37
Avg	36-36	36-53

The “average” does not include 2005. Clearly, this Mets team the past three years, like the early-90s Mets, has shown the ability to hang around for about half a season and then run off the rails. Now, with the NL East as close as it is, it would be silly to run up the white flag today. But Mets management needs to be preparing in every way for the possibility that, by the time mid/late July rolls around, they will be dealing from the position of a team rebuilding for 2006-07, rather than contending. That means putting people like Floyd and Cameron and Glavine on the table.
Specifically, a final decision will have to be made on the Mets’ scheduled off-day of Monday, July 18. Counting the just-completed series in which the Mets took 2 out of 3 from Philadelphia, the Mets are in a stretch where they play 17 of 23 games between June 21 and July 17 against their own division, culminating with a 4-game set at Shea against the Braves. To my mind, they need to win at least 11 of those in-division games, while at least splitting the other 6, if they are going to be anything like serious contenders the rest of the way; otherwise, they are just treading water. Of course, if – like last season – the team suddenly runs off the rails the last 10 days of July, they should reconsider any effort to make trades to help in 2005. But by preparing themselves mentally and emotionally now to play for the bigger game later, Mets management can help avoid a repeat of last season’s futile panic deals near the deadline.

On a gut level, I liked the Nationals’ gamble in dealing Tomo Ohka for Junior Spivey, at least as far as the fact that Ohka has been playing with fire thus far this year and is likely to crash and burn.
As for Spivey, he’s a lot less impressive than he seemed a few years ago. But he may have a role. The righthanded hitting Spivey, for his career, is batting .305/.568/.409 against lefthanded pitching, as opposed to .257/.379/.331 against righties. If Spivey is used as a role player, he can be spotted more against lefties.
Of course, dealing a starting pitcher, even a combustible one, for a role-playing infielder isn’t usually a long-term winning strategy. But if Frank Robinson uses Spivey properly, he can get the most out of this deal.

If you are a Mariners fan, you really don’t want to see “Felix Hernandez” and “shoulder” in the same sentence.

Minky and Daubach both go deep in the 8th inning tonight, proving either (1) that competition is a good thing or (2) that batting against Ugueth Urbina is a good thing.

I’m not sure there are easily fox-able answers to what ails the Mets at the moment – especially the lack of a second baseman – but I do know at least a few things that will help and a few that won’t.
Do:
1. Dump Mike Dejean, as the Mets did last night. The Mets have a bevy of young pitchers with potential upside – Heilman, Seo, Bell, Ring, Koo. Each of them has some reason to believe they could pitch effectively in the majors now or very soon. And even Manny Aybar has posted great K/BB ratios. DeJean, alone among the bullpen crew (since the departure of Felix Heredia) offered no cause for optimism. Might as well at least see what the kids can do backing up Looper and the rejuvenated Roberto Hernandez.
2. More Daubach, which we’re starting to see. Brian Daubach’s nothing special, but Minky has been so totally lost at the plate that you need to try somebody with a little power.
3. Get Reyes out of the top of the lineup. Reyes in the lineup every day is a good thing despite his low OBPs; he can hit for a good average (despite recent slumps), give you extra base power, speed and defense, and he’s learning and improving. But there’s no rational excuse for a guy with a .280-ish OBP (lowest in the majors over the past year) batting ahead of the big boppers. At this point, I’d just set the table with Cameron and Wright.
4. Replace Ishii with Heilman. Ishii’s just not getting the job done. I don’t know if he can hack it in the bullpen, but the more important thing is getting starts from guys who can keep you in the game.
Don’t:
1. Boo Beltran. Really, do we need another Bonilla or George Foster situation with a guy with a seven-year contract? Beltran’s yet to get really hot, but he was hitting at about 80-90% of his expected production until he got hurt. When healthy, Beltran will be fine. As is, he’s batting .327/.561/.385 with men on base, .306/.486/.375 from the seventh inning on, and .417/.722/.447 in the late innings of a close game. Can you say “clutch”? Give the guy a break.
2. Fire Willie Randloph.. Rookie managers have to learn, and by all appearances Randolph has handled the “respect of the players” part of the job well, and has done some things (like sticking Heilman out there) that have paid dividends. But if he’s going to succeed long term, he really needs to show he understands the basics by getting Reyes out of the top of the order; he’s finally at least taken the first step by dropping him to #2 lately.

I see that Rocco Baldelli, who is almost recovered from a torn ACL, will now miss the rest of the season with Tommy John surgery. (I guess the $5 I gambled on Baldelli in my Rotisserie draft is now officially wasted).

The Mets are now 32-33. At this point last year, they were 31-34, before a hot streak that pushed them to 44-41 two games before the All-Star Break. Lesson? You can hang around .500 this long and longer and still have the kind of miserable year they had last season.
Granted, an awful lot went wrong in the second half – Glavine, Leiter, Traschel, Looper, Piazza, Floyd, and Hidalgo were all awful, and Matsui got hurt. I don’t see that many people dropping off badly this time, but there could certainly be injuries.
What this means most of all is, the Mets should play their cards very carefully as far as making trades. Last year, they made two win-now deals about a week after it became clear that they were out of the race. This division race could go down to the wire, but they should tread very lightly in terms of sacrificing any part of their future to compete now.
For example, I’m interested in the rumored Matsui-for-Alfonzo deal possibilities. The deal only makes sense if Alfonzo can still play second, which is doubtful. That aside, though, whether such a deal would be a good one depends on what prospect(s) get thrown in to balance it out. Yusmeiro Petit, who appears to have a high upside, would be too much. Jae Seo, who can pitch but is unlikely to ever be any kind of star, on the other hand, I’d be willing to part with (although I’m doubtful that Matsui and Seo would be enough to make that deal).

If, as Jim Tracy asserted in today’s Los Angeles Times, Hee Seop Choi is “probably the hottest hitter in baseball,” then why in the world did he drop him into the sixth slot against Jose Lima? Utterly disconcerting….

In the past 365 days, Jim Edmonds has hit into one double play. Among players with 502 plate appearances (enough to qualify for a batting title) over that stretch, the top 6 guys in fewest GIDP are Edmonds and Carl Crawford (1 each), Ichiro (2), Bobby Abreu, Jimmy Rollins and Kevin Mench (3 each). Other than Mench, that group is three speed merchants, a fleet-footed slugger, and Edmonds – a 35-year-old power hitter with a long injury rap sheet. Very impressive. Plus, he’s batting .309/.647/.431, ranking him first in the majors in slugging and fourth in OBP for that stretch. Gotta take your hat off to the man. To be more specific, gotta vote for him for the All-Star Team. The third OF spot may be tough; Beltran is tempting for a Mets fan – though I’d rather he have the days off – but Giles, Dunn, Drew and Cabrera are also worthy contenders; I probably vote for Giles. (I regard Bonds’ injury as giving me an excuse not to feel compelled to vote for him). But the top two outfielders in the NL shouldn’t be hard: Abreu and Edmonds.
UPDATE: The rest of my NL All-Star Ballot, off the top of my head: Pujols over Derrek Lee at 1B, Kent at 2B, Khalil Greene at SS, David Wright over the injured Chipper at 3B, and I’m voting for Piazza at C but I can’t blame you if you vote for Johnny Estrada.

David Pinto muses over whether Dontrelle Willis might have a shot at 30 wins. I looked back at the numbers, and this much is clear: Willis would have to do something totally unprecedented.
When Lefty Grove won 31 in 1931, he made 11 relief appearances in between his starts and threw 27 complete games. When Dizzy Dean won 30 in 1934, he made 17 relief appearances and 24 complete games. When Walter Johnson won 36 in 1913, he made 12 relief appearances and 29 complete games.
Those are the only three pitchers ever to win 30 games while starting fewer than 37 in a season. And of the 6 other times a pitcher has won 30 with between 37 and 39 starts, they’ve averaged 7 relief appearances and 33 complete games.
I just don’t see a modern pitcher, making 35 or fewer starts and not relieving between starts, winning 30, especially without a lights-out closer or a wrecking crew offense, neither of which the Marlins have.
UPDATE: From Chris, in the comments, a Retrosheet breakdown of wins as a starter for the last four 20-game winners:
McLain ’68 — 31 as a starter, 0 as a reliever
Dean ’34 — 26 as a starter, 4 as a reliever
Grove ’31 — 27 as a starter, 4 as a reliever
Bagby ’20 — 25 as a starter, 6 as a reliever

If you’re gonna win a division, at some point, you have to start winning the kind of games the Mets won last night against the Angels. If you missed this one – easy enough to do, given the long rain delay – the highlights included:
*Kris Benson walking with the bases loaded in the 2d
*Carlos Beltran taking away a 2-run homer by Ben Molina with a leaping grab in the 7th.
*Trailing 2-1 against Francisco Rodriguez with one out in the bottom of the ninth, Marlon Anderson hits an inside-the-park pinch hit home run to tie the game. Anderson drilled a sure double to right center; Steve Finley made a dive for it, and Vladimir Guerrero, playing by the book, ran behind Finley to back him up if the ball got past him. But instead of rolling by Finley, the ball ricocheted off his knee into the right field corner, at which point I knew Anderson had an easy triple and a shot at the inside-the-parker, apparently the Mets’ first at Shea in 16 years. The play ended with a bruising collision at the plate between Anderson and Molina, opening a couple of gashes on Anderson’s face from where he went face-first into Molina’s mask.
*Cliff Floyd’s walk-off three-run homer, trailing 3-2 with two outs in the bottom of the tenth. Here’s the pitch-by-pitch sequence of that marathon tenth inning, in which Floyd managed to stay alive after nasty changeups from Brendan Donnelly put away Beltran and Piazza:
Jose Reyes: Strike (looking), Strike (foul), Foul, Ball, Ball, Foul, J Reyes singled to shallow left
Mike Cameron: Ball, Strike (looking), Ball, Ball, Strike (swinging), Foul, Ball, M Cameron walked, J Reyes to second
Carlos Beltran: Strike (bunted foul), Ball, Strike (foul), Strike (swinging), C Beltran struck out swinging
Mike Piazza: Strike (swinging), Ball, Ball, Strike (swinging), Strike (swinging), M Piazza struck out swinging
Cliff Floyd: Strike (swinging), Ball, Ball, Strike (foul), Ball, Foul, Foul, Foul, J Reyes stole third, C Floyd homered to right, J Reyes and M Cameron scored
(Reyes stole third totally uncontested, if you’re wondering if he was crazy to run with two outs. His threats to steal also contributed to Donnelly walking Cameron, including a failed pitchout).
I really hope Floyd can finally stay healthy this year – he’s just playing with such tremendous enthusiasm and flair this season, cracking big homers and throwing out baserunners by the bushel.

Tom Elia compares the misery of the Cubs to the misery (past tense) of the Red Sox. And Doctor Horsefeathers reviews Jerry Crasnick’s book “License to Deal : A Season on the Run with a Maverick Baseball Agent”, including a behind-the-scenes look at Dontrelle Willis.

Last month, I compared Adrian Beltre unfavorably to his Dodger replacements. But he’s now beginning to show signs of life: since the start of June, he’s managed to compile a .292 average and a .370 on-base percentage. True, these numbers aren’t exactly going to propel him onto the leadership boards, especially with a paltry .375 slugging percentage accompanying them, but they’re at least better than his seasonal .242 AVG and .277 OBP.
What truly strikes me, though, is his 8 total walks. For perspective, consider that Antonio Perez, who’s more or less become the regular Dodger third baseman, has 9 — in 155 fewer plate appearances (235 vs. 80). Indeed, Perez has spent time on the disabled list, as well as in AAA to improve his fielding at the hot corner, yet he’s drawn more. And this advantage has translated to an 11.3 VORP, compared to Beltre’s -2.1.
Maybe Adrian’s finally found his groove. If so, then we can start missing him, because Antonio’s been just fine.

Eric McErlain looks back at the failings of Ed Kranepool.
If I think about it, I’m sure I can come up with some worse major league hitters than Kevin Hench’s list. For example, shortstop Enzo Hernandez had an OPS+ of 61 in 1971, compared to 53 for Rey Ordonez in 1998 and 37 for the legendary John Gochnauer in 1902. And for bad-hitting pitchers, I’m not sure Al Leiter tops Bob Buhl’s 1962 season, when he went 0-for-70, although Buhl did draw 6 walks.

Tom Verducci thinks so, and explains why.

Maybe I’ve been looking in the wrong places, but I wonder why we haven’t seen more talk about Roger Clemens possibly being traded to the Rangers later in the season. Clemens is obviously making way too much money for the Astros to want him around the rest of the year if they can find a willing suitor. I’ve seen the Yankees mentioned, of course, but why not the Rangers? They have an excellent offense and look like they will stay in the AL West race; they have a deep-pocketed owner who, while he’s been more financially conservative since the A-Rod deal, has shown a willingness to spend; they are, as always, in need of a #1 starter (don’t tell me “Kenny Rogers”; just don’t); and, of importance to Clemens, he could pitch there without leaving his home state of Texas.
Am I missing something?

The Washington Post has a fairly good article on the Nationals’ surprising emergence, but it seems to miss the most crucial point. This summary is fine:

How, exactly, have they won seven of their last eight [note: with today’s victory, the string is now eight of nine–RT], overtaking everybody in the process? They don’t lead the NL in any significant category. In fact, they are statistically unremarkable, in some cases abysmal. Only two teams in the NL score fewer runs per game than the Nationals’ 4.09. No team in the league has hit fewer home runs than the Nationals’ 40. Their starting pitching is not dominant; their bullpen is, statistically speaking, quite ordinary.

But I’d be more apt to note, as Baseball Prospectus does, the Nats’ overall negative run differential. After all, if you plug their total runs scored (235) and total runs allowed (244) in the James Pythagorean formula, you get an expected record that drops below .500, putting them in the cellar of the NL East. They’re playing five games above their heads right now. Without a surge in run production, they’re likely to falter.
(Aside: Somebody needs to tell ESPN that their sabermetric columnist is named Rob Neyer, not Rob Never. See the header.)

The Dodgers’ recent woes can be easily traced to the pitching staff, especially its penchant for yielding the long ball. If you want just one simple indicator, take a look at the Beane Count, which examines team rankings in walks and homeruns. While the hitters are respectable in both areas, the pitchers are among the worst in HR-allowed, despite giving up the second-fewest bases on balls.
The story doesn’t get any better within the rotation. In calculating the average game scores of the 105 pitchers who’ve started enough games to “qualify,” we get a major-league figure of roughly 51.3. Pedro Martinez, whose 68.6 ranks highest in the game, is over two standard deviations from the mean. By contrast, Dodger starters are, at best, mediocre. Derek Lowe (52.9), Brad Penny (52), and Odalis Perez (51) offer nothing spectacular. Jeff Weaver (45.3), Scott Erickson (38), and Wilson Alvarez (27) are miserable, particularly if you consider their home park.
What these numbers tell us is that the Dodgers have yet to get consistently good starts. I suspect that they’ll improve as folks like Penny (and, hopefully, Perez) recover from injuries, but Paul DePodesta is taking no chances: he’s in the market for a starter.

There’s already so much good coverage of the draft that it’d be fruitless for me to live-blog it. Hence just check out John Sickels. And pay a special visit to Baseball America, which deserves considerable praise for projecting the first eighteen selections, as well as twenty-two of the top thirty.
But let me note that, in using their supplemental pick to draft Luke Hochevar, the Dodgers have essentially found their way to the first round. As John notes, this Tennessee right-hander could have gone in the top five. His affiliation with Scott Boras is a significant wild card, though perhaps the fact that the Dodgers initially selected him in 2002 could avert negotiating snafus.

Yesterday, before the Dodgers’ first game against the Tigers, Los Angeles Times columnist Bill Plaschke revisited the 1988 World Series with Kirk Gibson. The resulting article has interesting tidbits, most notably Plaschke’s own recollection of the historic fist-pump. But this point stands out:

How much did that home run typify his season? Consider that he was voted MVP despite hitting only 25 homers with 76 runs batted in and a .290 average.
How much did that home run cement his legacy? Many think he is one of the biggest impact players in baseball history, yet he never played a full season in which he hit .300, or had 30 homers, or 100 RBIs.
“I was very, very average in many aspects,” he says. “Let’s be honest.”

Gibson’s modesty is admirable, and indeed, if we truly want to “be honest,” we should agree that — by Hall of Fame standards — his career was “very, very average.”
On the other hand, as a journalist, Plaschke should know better than to provide statistics without appropriate context. Yes, Gibson hit only 25 homers. But, back then, that was good enough for seventh in the league. And, while he had a mediocre batting average, he finished fourth in on-base percentage, ninth in slugging percentage, fourth in OPS, third in OPS+, second in runs scored, and seventh in runs created. He had a very productive season.
Perhaps he didn’t deserve the MVP award. Two years ago, Crank laid out a very strong case against Gibson (and for Darryl Strawberry), providing support for Plaschke’s assertions. But, as Aaron Gleeman has noted, Gibson also accumulated the second-highest Win Share total, so his selection was not entirely unjustified. It certainly wasn’t something to be dismissed in the interest of immortalizing the homer.
Then again, we’ve come to expect such sloppiness from Plaschke, right? (He’s a far cry from Bernie Miklasz, to be sure.) But, if there’s anything from the column worth saving, it’s this admission:

“There were personality defects in the deal, it’s what made me who I was,” he says. “Some people didn’t like it. But they didn’t take the time to understand it.”
I was one of those people. I covered the Dodgers as a beat reporter during Gibson’s era, and I blanched at his crudeness, his bullying, the way he treated life as if he were breaking up a double play.
I understand it now. He behaved that way because it was the only way he felt he and his team could succeed.
He couldn’t have remodeled the Dodgers without a hammer and nails, and by the time that ball sailed over the right-field fence, everyone forgot the mess.

Maybe he’ll write similarly of Paul DePodesta seventeen years from now.

The Mets’ pitching staff has been coming along nicely lately, although I still have serious concerns about several of the starters. But it also occurred to me that just looking at ERAs wasn’t getting at some of the important distinctions between these guys. I decided to break them down by starts, into three groups: Quality Starts (6 or more innings, 3 or fewer earned runs; I always thought 3-in-6 was a pretty poor excuse for a quality start, but less so now than 20 years ago); Disaster Starts (at least 1 earned run per inning pitched); and Mediocre Starts (the rest). Let’s see how the seven men to start games for the Mets this year break out:

Pitcher	QS	MS	DS
Martinez	8	3	0
Glavine	7	2	3
Benson	4	2	1
Zambrano	5	4	1
Ishii	3	2	2
Heilman	3	2	2
Seo	2	1	0
Team	32	16	9

How about the Mets’ record in those starts?

Pitcher	QS	MS	DS
Martinez	6-2	1-2	—
Glavine	5-2	0-2	0-3
Benson	4-0	1-1	0-1
Zambrano	3-2	1-3	0-1
Ishii	3-0	0-2	0-2
Heilman	3-0	1-1	0-2
Seo	2-0	0-1	—
Team	26-8	4-12	0-9

As you can see, this is a classic breakdown for a team with an OK but not great offense: the Mets are extremely hard to beat when they get a quality start, lose most of the time when they don’t, and are incapable of coming back when the starter gets blown out.
For the quick math, the Mets are 18-10 when Pedro, Benson, Heilman or Seo starts, but 12-17 when Glavine, Zambrano or Ishii starts.
Now, each pitcher’s ERA broken out by Quality Starts, Mediocre Starts and Disaster Starts:

Pitcher	QSIP	QSER	QSERA	MSIP	MSER	MSERA	DSIP	DSER	DSERA
Martinez	59	10	1.53	20	13	5.85	—	—	—
Glavine	45.2	9	1.77	12.2	8	5.68	11.2	19	14.66
Benson	26.2	6	2.03	10.2	6	5.06	6	6	9.00
Zambrano	32	10	2.81	20	10	4.50	5.1	7	11.81
Ishii	20	2	0.90	13	10	6.92	9	12	12.00
Heilman	22	4	1.64	11	6	4.91	9	12	12.00
Seo	13	1	0.69	5	3	5.40	—	—	—
Team	218.1	42	1.73	92.1	56	5.46	41	56	12.29

Now, some conclusions. While some of us – myself prominently included – have given up on Tom Glavine, what we see here is a guy who can still give you plenty of quality outings, as long as you live with the fact that he’s the one starter most likely to take you completely out of the game. In fact, Glavine’s ERA in his 9 non-disaster starts is 2.62 – exactly the same as Pedro’s in his 11. The difference is that Pedro has yet to have a game completely get away from him, whereas it has happened to Glavine three times, two of them against division foes. Of course, the overall result is still a losing record for the Mets when Glavine starts.
Then there’s Zambrano, Ishii and Heilman. These numbers confirm for me that Zambrano is contributing, and Ishii isn’t and should be replaced by Heilman. Note that while Zambrano is the least effective Mets starter in his Quality Starts, he’s the most effective in his Mediocre starts, because he’s the most likely to be lifted before 6 innings even if he has only allowed 2 or 3 runs. On a great offensive team, this would make him very valuable, as he usually doesn’t get blown out, only once in 10 tries compared to 2 in 7 for the other two. On this team, a little less so, but at least Zambrano gives you a chance. As with Glavine, his performance so far would be more valuable with just a little more offense behind him.
Ishii’s ERA in his QS+MS is 3.27 compared to 3.46 for Zambrano, but the difference is that he’s far less consistent, as his Mediocre Starts aren’t far removed from a Disaster Start. Basically, unless Ishii’s completely on top of his game, he kills you. That could be useful for a truly awful offensive team that wants to steal a win every now and then, but it won’t cut it for a contender, which the Mets still hope to be. Heilman has been better at keeping the team in games, and is currently in the bullpen mainly just because Ishii isn’t suited to relief, either. Unless the Mets really think they can trade Ishii soon, I’d bury him in a mop up role.

Via Barry Zito Forever, I see that newly-installed A’s closer Huston Street is writing about his experiences over at ESPN.com. I loved his opening line:

Every kid who has dreamed of being a baseball player has stood in his front yard with a bat and said to himself, “Bottom of the ninth, Game 7 of the World Series, the bases are loaded,” and then envisioned hitting a home run to win the game. My job is to shatter that dream.

The Braves have called up super-prospect Andy Marte to fill in for Chipper Jones. Looks like some of the voters in Mac Thomason’s preseason pool were real close.

From a reader in Bill Simmons’ mail bag, a pet peeve:

[E]very time I even begin to talk about how everything goes wrong with my Cubbies … there is some Boston fan that gives me the ole “hang in there, if the Red Sox can do it, then the Cubs can do it too.” The last thing I want to hear is someone reminding me that the Cubs are now the only cursed team. I realize that both the Cubs and the Red Sox went a long time without winning the World Series, but why do you guys feel the need to hold our hand while we try and win one.

Um, only? There were three of the 16 “original” NL/AL franchises that had not won a World Series since before World War II. Now there are two. A Cubs fan ought to have the common decency to have heard of the other one. I mean, if anybody has a claim to a curse, it’s the franchise that threw the freaking World Series and has not won another postseason series in 85 seasons since then, despite having the best record in baseball in 1959 and 1983 and the best in the AL in 2000.
Of course, the White Sox have the kind of curse you would put on a team if you really wanted their fans to suffer: White Sox fans aren’t pitied, just ignored. They don’t finish last for years at a stretch (in fact, they’ve finished last only twice since 1935), they don’t have spectacular collapses in pennant races, they don’t lose postseason serieses in memorable fashion (they’ve never gone the distance in a postseason series and have scored just 56 runs, less than 3 per game, in 19 postseason games in the past 85 years). They don’t get to cry “small market” as the Royals or Brewers do, and they’ve rarely had fire sales of their players. They never get to be the best team in town, nor the city’s saddest sacks. They just plod along in perpetual mediocrity, never any closer to the goal.
Anyway, I’m wondering how far we have to get into 2005 before this particular exorcism starts to become an object of some real attention.

…well, I lost count. The guy amazes me sometimes; it’s like if Larry Bird became a broadcaster and we discovered that the guy had no clue about how you win basketball games, or if it turned out that Bill Clinton didn’t know anything about politics.
Anyway, today’s gem was a bit of historical ignorance. John Miller was discussing headfirst slides – mainly in the context of guys going headfirst into first base – and Joe was contributing some sort useful color, discussing his own preference until late career for sliding feet first, and how great base thieves like Lou Brock and Maury Wills always went feet first. Then Joe declares that the guy who popularized the headfirst slide was Omar Moreno.
Now, OK, maybe Moreno was the first big time base thief to go mostly headfirst, I don’t remember. But most of us would consider it faintly ridiculous to discuss who made headfirst slides more popular without mentioning the man who was synonymous for decades with the headfirst slide, who indeed made it his signature: Pete Rose, of course. How could Morgan, who played side by side with Rose for seven seasons in the prime of their careers, have possibly forgotten Rose? It boggles the mind.

So Octavio Dotel is having surgery and done for this year and into next season. Tough blow for the A’s, who had hoped to have a primo closer in his walk year to shop, but maybe good news for the Mets, who now have one fewer reason to get fleeced by Billy Beane (but hey, there’s still Barry Zito). Actually, Dotel might not be a bad guy for the Mets to take a jon Lieber-style flyer on this offseason.
UPDATE: Obviously, of course, this is great news for Huston Street (and, ahem, people who own him in fantasy leagues), as Street now steps in to what will no doubt be a long tenure as A’s closer.

Carlos Beltran just went yard, and the Mets announcers pointed out that all 7 of his home runs have come in games started by Pedro.